Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[197300] 21/10/2010 13:08

seem to be on my own in this, lloyds now have over 5%

[197300] 19/10/2010 12:19

i see tdr capital have increased their holding by more than 10m shares from 17.52m to 28m surely a very good sign and hopefully will add to share price.

[197300] 11/10/2010 20:56

well, lloyds seem to think they are worth the money.

[jonwig] 21/9/2010 16:12

197300 - I haven't a timescale in mind, but may, of course, have missed something.

The point really is that debt maturities are lumped together whereas cashflow from maturing policies is smoother and longer-term. It would make sense for some debt to be lengthened, maybe at the cost of a higher coupon. That could be interpreted as 'win-win'. [See post #78.]

EDIT: post #81 suggests a possible timeframe.

[197300] 21/9/2010 14:23

any timescale on when either of these is likely to take place?

[jonwig] 21/9/2010 14:07

dangers - thanks, yes, that makes sense.

Though it doesn't make me keen to take notice of Dexia, as I think the key driver for PHNX is the state of play re the divi cap and ongoing debt negotiations. If these go badly, there could be a fall to 600p or so. If they go well, I'd expect a rerating more towards MCEV.

[197300] 21/9/2010 13:49

thanks for that, i thought trackers could not buy in advance as this could skew their returns.

[dangersimpson2] 21/9/2010 13:31

The original arb idea is that index trackers have to buy the new entrants and hence the share price should rise as shares get added to an index.

However I think the effect is now less pronounced as trackers have started to re-balance on announcement not admission and others get in on the arb and buy earlier. This is probably responsible for the rise we saw after index admission was announced.

Hence the arb has probably moved earlier and what I'd guess Dexia do is go long on announcement or even anticipate the index re-balancing and go long beforehand. They then play the other side and aim to go short before other arbs close their longs. This is what we are seeing with the short announcement - they are anticipating a drop in share price as index tracker buying ceases and other arbs (other funds or just traders) close their longs.

Whether the short position works for them depends on what level of other arbs are out there closing their long positions.

[jonwig] 21/9/2010 12:00

It might not be that:

Dexia Index Arbitrage is an absolute performance and a low volatility UCITS III fund, which taps investment opportunities arising from equity indices rebalancing (changes in constituents and/or weightings). The fund can also carry out closed-end fund arbitrage transactions. The strategy is market neutral and the portfolio's maximum gross exposure is 200% (100% long + 100% short). The fund's target is to outperform the Eonia index over a 3 years investment horizon, while limiting volatility to 5%.



Just what their 'index arbitrage' consists of I couldn't say!

[197300] 21/9/2010 11:00

i see dexia index arb has a short posotion of over .5 million shares in phnx, do they know something we dont

[typo56] 09/9/2010 09:47

Typical slack journos, although to be fair the company were rather slack too, not announcing the ex-date and record date until close on Monday. The LSE dividend procedure stipulates that dividend dates should be announced at least six business days before the proposed record date. Perhaps they had informed the LSE but not the market.

[197300] 09/9/2010 08:36

see the times remarks on the share price drop but does not bother to say it went ax-div

[typo56] 08/9/2010 18:43

I think FTSE made a strange decision to keep CNT in the FTSE250 on the grounds that it is suspended. It means that HSTN has been demoted somewhat unjustly.

[jonwig] 08/9/2010 17:15

Good news, thanks.

I see 'Inv Wt' was 100%, so presumably free float wasn't an issue either. Today's fall to close was less than divi gone ex (21p).

[typo56] 08/9/2010 17:11

FTSE have just confirmed that PHNX will enter the FTSE 250 this month. So liquidity clearly wasn't an issue.

[typo56] 08/9/2010 08:11

With ESSR I don't think there was a question of lack of trading volume in the period they were listed prior to the review.

It's not the trading period I was questioning (I believe the minimum requirement is 20 trading days prior to the review) but the trading volume in order to pass the liquidity test. I can't see there is sufficient volume on the LSE to justify entry but it may well be that trading on other exchanges will be taken into account, although even if you take account of trading on Euronext I'm not sure the volume is sufficient. Whilst FTSE only allocated PHNX UK nationality status last month the company has a longer trading record and this will also be taken into account, as confirmed by FTSE:

"Please be advised that changes made to a country's classification does not classify it as a new issue. Therefore the prior trading record before the change in classification would be used to determine liquidity."

However, it is clear from the company statements that PHNX expect to enter the FTSE 250 this month and I assume their advisors understand the FTSE rules. Having said that, the POG advisors screwed up on this last year!

[jonwig] 08/9/2010 07:36

Essar Energy floated on 7 May and was admitted to the FTSE 100 on 9 June. That might help answer your point, Typo.

[typo56] 07/9/2010 21:45

To meet the liquidity test the median monthly trade (not the mean trading volume) needs to exceed 0.035% of the number of shares in issue in the months leading up to the review. As far as I can see, PHNX fails this test in all but the last month, if it is simply based on trading on the LSE. However, they may take into account prior trading on other exchanges.

This time tomorrow we will know.

[197300] 07/9/2010 21:12

as i see this, the volume needs to be over 45k per day to satisfy everything. i believe this has been the case

[jonwig] 07/9/2010 16:47

PHNX is well into FTSE 250 on size alone, but the committe also take into account the free float by an appropriate weighting, and if they decide that's less than around 50% there might be problems.

The holdings list in the header is taken from the prospectus of last December and is well outdated but is all I have to go on. Directors and 'strategic holders' are not counted as part of the free float, and that could still be a problem.

[dangersimpson2] 07/9/2010 16:11

Thanks Novision - I don't think my broker thought that the stock wasn't ISA'ble, just that they couldn't be bothered to update their systems to include the UK listing as well as the Dutch. They said they'd probably change it if the company was included in the FTSE250, but me suggesting it was pretty much a cert to happen didn't seem to be enough. I guess if you pay peanuts...

In the end I used the cash to buy another stock I'd be following so may revisit PHNX with my broker when the FTSE250 listing is confirmed...as long as the price hasn't got too far ahead of me :-(

[novision] 07/9/2010 10:53

@Dangersimpson2 - I have these purchased in UK in an ISA via Selftrade - no problem - just entered the epic. Think your broker might need to research a bit further ....

[robsy2] 07/9/2010 10:46

just back from hols. Haven't really had a look at the results yet but judging by the trading volume and the share price all appears to be unfolding to plan.I am sill a buyer at this level.
R2

[197300] 06/9/2010 17:10

well, these for whatever reason did not show ny trades until after 1100 and then almost 750k of unknown trades. still ended up on the day.
we are also going ex-div on wed.

[jonwig] 05/9/2010 10:55

According to an article in the Sunday Telegraph (about another company) the next FTSE review is on Wednesday (Sept 8). J P Morgan is quoted as estimating that tracker funds will then typically buy up 10% of the company.

I suppose tracker funds do have to wait for confirmation, but of course a fund manager could buy ahead for one of its other funds, or even its own book, transferring across later.