Phoenix Share Discussion Threads

[jonwig] 20/12/2010 19:45

This isn't in the script I was following!

[197300] 20/12/2010 16:55

well they are going somewhere now, down!

[jonwig] 13/12/2010 17:26

197300 - I suspect it's the bond markets which move this rather than the equity markets.

[197300] 13/12/2010 14:38

share appears to be going nowhere at the moment, the market is rising and this is being left behind.

[robsy2] 11/12/2010 18:34

700m cash flow expected this year, fully diluted we have I think 225 million shares , that is 300p a share cash flow. Seems very good to me.

[robsy2] 01/12/2010 09:29

Thanks for reminding us of that. Las time i looked I was pleasantly surprised to see how little exposure we have to anything euro let alone PIGS euro.We should remember also how a Zombie fund makes its money. Most of the investment risk is held by the policy holders. If prices fall then management charges fall so PHNX income falls, but assuming a 1.5% average management fee on funds then 98.5% of the downside (and upside) is with he policyholders. Zombie funds also take a considerable portion of their fees in flat fees for admin charges . establishment charges, early redemption charges , copy statement charges etc etc.

[jonwig] 01/12/2010 09:15

I feel quite relaxed about the way the share is performing - I hope I'm not being over-complacent!

The H1 results presentation (dated August) has, on page 30:

Total shareholder exposure to Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain of £64m, representing 5.1% of other government exposure.
No exposure to Greece.

That won't have increased.

[robsy2] 30/11/2010 18:04

or maybe not.

[dangersimpson2] 26/11/2010 23:10

Looks like their illiquid short may have been saved by a European debt crisis! Closing it must be providing some support at the moment.

[jonwig] 26/11/2010 16:52

Update from Dexia:

17/09 ..... -0.359% ..... 591,335 shs
19/11 ..... -0.316% ..... 527,035 shs
25/11 ..... -0.237% ..... 407 035 shs

[dangersimpson2] 23/11/2010 08:43

I'm surprised they are expecting an index arb anomaly to last this long...either they have a different strategy to the usual index arb or they are finding that PHNX is a lot less liquid than the average FTSE250 entrant!

[jonwig] 23/11/2010 08:12

Dexia's short position again:

17/09 ..... -0.359% ..... 591,335 shs
19/11 ..... -0.316% ..... 527,035 shs

[197300] 05/11/2010 08:17

Phoenix Group Overweight
PHNX.L, PHNX LN
3Q10 IMS - reiteration of full year cash target - ALERT Price: 685p
04 November 2010
Insurance - Life
Duncan Russell, CFAAC
(44-20) 7325-4831
[e-mail]
Ashik Musaddi
(44-20) 7325-9226
[e-mail]
J.P. Morgan Securities Ltd
Phoenix's 3Q10 IMS has been released and doesn't have a material
impact on our positive investment case in either direction. We
remain positive as the shares are trading on a large discount to
embedded value and cash flow is strong.
• The Group states that it is on track to deliver full year operating
companies' cash generation at the top end of the £625mn-725mn
target range. This is in-line with our expectations. However, due to
timings of cash release, very little cash was up-streamed in 3Q10 – i.e.
we will have to wait until 4Q to see the actual delivery of this statement.
• The embedded value was not disclosed however the Group states
that management action (tax optimization etc.) has added £157mn,
which is ahead of the full year target of £145mn. We had expected this in
4Q rather than 3Q but nonetheless had it in our numbers for the year. We
believe that EV is in the range of £12 currently, meaning that the stock
trades on 57% excluding a value for the asset management subsidiary.
• Ignis, its asset management subsidiary, performed slightly better
than anticipated with AUM coming in at £71.4bn versus JPMe of
£70.9bn.
• In conclusion, there is in truth not a huge amount to comment on
here. The key outstanding issue remains the discussions with the banks,
on which no comment has been made, but which we expect to hear more
of towards the end of this year / early next year.
• A conference call is taking place at 9.30am today – UK dial-in is 020

[jonwig] 05/11/2010 07:44

Today's IMS seems to tick all the right boxes on progress.

Dexia's short position would have been taken (around 17/09) at about 700-720p. There would have been a nice profit earlier on in closing it out. Now they might lose it.

[197300] 25/10/2010 14:54

jp morgan cazenove 21st oct.
"we maintain our overweight rating on phoenix as we think the shares are attractive and any renegotiation with the banks would be a positive catalyst for phoenix."
company data
price: 690
date: 18th oct 2010
price target; 1090
price target end date: 31st dec 2011

[robsy2] 22/10/2010 16:06

Nice post 197300.Thanks for the info. For me if you look at the divi and take say 80% of any rise in MCEV you can get a good idea of wha this can earn us annually, As it winds down , we can expect special dividends as well as capital is released. I am thinking 15-20% tops a year.Good core holding.

[jonwig] 22/10/2010 14:07

Thanks 197... that very much fits in with the comments we've made here.

[197300] 22/10/2010 13:38

deutche bank 22/10
"phoenix has annouunced that it is to place 33m of new stock, adding 3% to our calculations for diluted shares in issue."
"there is technically a modestly dilutive impact on valuation. diluted shares in issue should rise by c3%, however this is largely offset by the 33m of incoming cash and the benefit from recently rising markets. in aggregate therefore, we leave our target price unchanged at 870. with 28% upside our recommendation remains; Buy - with the key catalyst being the outcome of bank debt renegotiations and the potential removal of the dividend cap early next year".

[jonwig] 22/10/2010 07:19

Today's placing isn't a significant amount.
The placing document is a bit opaque but there's a trading statement inserted:

The Phoenix Group continues to trade in line with management expectations. As indicated in the interim results, the Group expects to deliver full year cash inflows at the top of its £625 million to £725 million target range with the timing of flows from the Life Companies being skewed to the final quarter. The Group also reconfirms that it expects to meet its target of achieving £145 million incremental embedded value growth through management actions for the full year. The Q3 IMS will be published on 5th November as scheduled.

[mctmct] 22/10/2010 07:17

From the end of today's RNS on equity issue:

Trading update

The Phoenix Group continues to trade in line with management expectations. As indicated in the interim results, the Group expects to deliver full year cash inflows at the top of its GBP625 million to GBP725 million target range with the timing of flows from the Life Companies being skewed to the final quarter. The Group also reconfirms that it expects to meet its target of achieving GBP145 million incremental embedded value growth through management actions for the full year. The Q3 IMS will be published on 5th November as scheduled.

[envirovision] 21/10/2010 18:23

Thanks i must mark it up for one to research further.

[robsy2] 21/10/2010 17:34

Yep I agree
i think this is a buy esp if they can sort out the divi cap. The strong and sustainable nature of cash flow into phnx from the funds was being talked about as collatoral for raising more finance to buy more Zombie funds . So long as they don't get ahead of themselves , and they have been good so far, they have got a very good business model that can squeeze value out of the "decommissioning" of the with profits asset class, so i am lookinf for the same , bigger divis and a closing of the NAV MCEV discount.
R2

[jonwig] 21/10/2010 14:29

EV - divi is capped at 40p by banking covenants which the board expect to be lifted once the debt repayment schedule has been renegotiated. news not far away on this, I would think.

Sp is at a big discount to MCEV, which I'd expect to close once the divi and debt issues are sorted.

Running closed life funds hasn't much growth potential but does throw off cash. Also acquisitions are being considered, which will help rationalisations.

[dangersimpson2] 21/10/2010 14:25

Of the divi? Yes, if they can get the debt holders to agree to waive their covenants based on the strength of the current rather than past financial position of the company and strong cash generation I would expect a bigger payout than the current limit of €0.5.

[envirovision] 21/10/2010 14:20

So whats the attraction here then? 7% divi, but will there be any growth?