Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[popeye888] 01/3/2017 17:50

m_n_tomlinson I don't totally disagree with you. I think there is an agenda that we do not know about.
Blood may be spilt before this is finished.

[m_n_tomlinson] 01/3/2017 16:01

Popeye I guess you're trying to rationalized POG's stupefying share price, when compared to the dizzying heights and successes of some the other miners.

“The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

Though my interpretation of irrational in this case, is a deliberate, wilful manipulation and destruction of the share price.

[popeye888] 01/3/2017 11:57

These figures may not be absolutely accurate but good enough.

Year - oz's produced - Gold Price $
2002 - 70k - 300
2003 - 149k - 350
2004 - 209k - 400
2005 - 249k - 450
2006 - 261k - 500
2007 - 297k - 550
2008 - 402k - 800
2009 - 487k - 900
2010 - 507k - 1,100
2011 - 630k - 1,400
2012 - 710k - 1,700
2013 - 741k - 1,700
2014 - 624k - 1,300
2015 - 504k - 1,250
2016 - 416k - 1,100
2017 - 1,250

As can be seen from above, POG (correctly I believe) only produce enough gold to keep their head above water whilst the gold price is being held down.

I'm sure they can produce 1,000,000oz per year if and when they want to (when Gold price is right). I would guess when it's above $1,800oz, but your guess is as good as mine. Question is who will own POG at that time.

[celeritas] 28/2/2017 16:12

This is and has been held for a good while now, stock is being accumulated by someone, wont surprise me to see it taken out before it starts to climb properly.
pog never ran with the rest even though it's in a substantially better position than a year back.

[stoopid] 28/2/2017 15:08

12 month hold at least....

[stoopid] 28/2/2017 15:07

Dan I'm afraid POX is still 18th away from first production H2 2019 I think they said. First big announcement will be the underground mining and a boots to Oz produced.

[dan554] 28/2/2017 12:58

I'm going to go all out and say it , POG's debt is lowering , IRC news is good, POX in the nearer future , Gold is steadily increasing and even if it drops a bit it's not a problem.

POG is going back to where it belongs , compare the situation to a year ago and its alot better . Stay with it all i dont think you will be dissapointed.

Top up time if you been here a while, bring down that average price per share imo.

Best to you all who have the faith

Dan.

[grbaker] 28/2/2017 10:03

Here's the news links:

"
IRC Corporate Highlights

ICBC Repayment Restructure, subject to fulfilment of certain conditions precedent:

-- Project Finance Facility: US$234 million principal outstanding.

-- 2017 deferral of both principal repayment instalments, originally due 20 June 2017 and 20 December 2017 for an aggregate amount of US$42,500,000 (approximately HK$330 million).

-- The five subsequent repayment instalments are rebalanced to account for the deferred 2017 payments. Each principal repayment instalment to be increased by US$8,500,000 (approximately HK$65.9 million) to US$29,750,000 (approximately HK$231 million), with the aggregate amount of the increase equal to US$42,500,000 (approximately HK$330 million).

-- The repayment restructure will be effective upon fulfilment of the conditions precedent and will continue to be effective until 20 June 2020, subject to the ongoing satisfaction of certain conditions. Thereafter, the principal repayment schedule will return to the original bi-annual payments of US$21,250,000. The 2022 maturity of the Project Finance Facility remains unchanged.

Commissioning

-- K&S is in the final stages of production testing. The plant continues to make solid progress, currently operating at close to 50% of capacity. For the month of January 2017, K&S produced 100kt of iron ore products.

-- Despite a technical incident with the ball mill lubrication system, K&S plant engineers have adapted the technological process to operate three out of four ball mills, allowing K&S to continue its commissioning program. Spare parts necessary for all ball mills to be operational are expected to be delivered to site soon.

-- Full commercial production remains scheduled for H1 2017.

Strategic Investor

-- Secured a new core investor, Tiger Capital Fund, with a member appointed to the Board.

-- Tiger Capital Fund invested US$25 million for 13.22% of the issued share capital.

Legal Settlement

-- Amicable settlement of legal and technical dispute with lead construction contractor at K&S, resulting in cash compensation to IRC of US$4.5 million in Dec 2016.

-- Outstanding construction payment liability reduced by US$3.9 million while reserving the rights to claim for further penalties from the contractor.

Peter Hambro, Chairman of Petropavlovsk, comments: "We congratulate IRC on its recent operational progress and improved financial stability. It is encouraging to note the strength of relations between IRC, its debt provider, ICBC, and its insurer, Sinosure. The 2017 debt repayment deferral in turn defers Petropavlovsk's 2017 contingent liability as the guarantor. This represents a significant reduction of our risk profile and comes as Petropavlovsk enters a phase of transformational growth. Furthermore, it allows the IRC team to remain focused on successfully delivering the ramp up of the K&S plant.

Throughout the current phase of commissioning IRC has continued to create shareholder value. This has been further supported by an improving iron ore market, with current spot iron ore of $90/t (62% Fe). With IRC projected cash costs of US$34/t, margins are robust even against the 2017 iron ore consensus of US$80/t.

Once the K&S plant reaches full commercial production and thereby becomes cash flow positive, the strategy remains for IRC to assess competitive refinancing alternatives, including retiring the Petropavlovsk guarantee.

As at market close on 24 February 2017, Petropavlovsk's 31.10% equity holding has a market value of HK$927 million (US$119 million, assuming a foreign exchange rate of HKD:USD 0.13).

etc.
"



See also:

"
The board of directors of the Company is pleased to announce that the Company has been informed that, subject to the fulfilment of certain conditions precedent, ICBC has agreed to restructure the repayments under the Project Finance Facility as follows:

(i) two repayment instalments, originally due for payment on 20 June 2017 and 20 December 2017 and in an aggregate amount of US$42,500,000 (approximately HK$330 million) have been waived; and

(ii) in respect of the five subsequent repayment instalments under the Project Finance Facility, each repayment instalment has been increased by US$8,500,000 (approximately HK$65.9 million) to US$29,750,000 (approximately HK$231 million), with the aggregate amount of the increase being equal to US$42,500,000 (approximately HK$330 million).

The restructuring of the repayments shall be effective upon fulfilment of the conditions precedent and shall continue to be effective until 20 June 2020, subject to the on-going satisfaction of certain conditions.
"

[stoopid] 28/2/2017 08:51

More good news in relation to IRC and not a flicker in the share price lol.Means that POGs debt guarantee is looking secure....

[brian1944] 24/2/2017 08:31

wally here here

[wallywoo] 24/2/2017 08:17

you guys all need a chill pill. The share price has not moved for 8 weeks. Yes for the odd half hour it bobs down or up 3%, then back to the norm. This along with low volume means nothing. Just look at wwww.britishbulls.com they must of had 8 false buy and sell signals on POG over the last 8 weeks. The action with IRC, gold etc all effects POG, it is just not reflected in the share price It will, you just need to sit and wait for this consolidation to complete.

I like it when other goldies move and this stays put. I have seen this lots of times, it is typical behaviour for a stock out of favour in a bouyant sector. BUT it will move, and with a Whosh, IMO

[seppsuess] 24/2/2017 08:00

If the gold price is the VIAGRA of POG than it needs an even higher dose

[popeye888] 23/2/2017 16:43

Gold up, POG down and shares in POG seem to be getting dumped.

[grbaker] 21/2/2017 15:03

Gold bounce back:



See also:

[wallywoo] 21/2/2017 13:48

Just did a bit of research on all the capex POG has spent over the years:
2011 - Spent $543M cap exp
2012 - Spent $408M cap exp
2013 - Spent $237M cap exp
2014 - Spent $96M cap exp
2015 - spent $32M cap exp
2016 - spent $35M cap exp Total $1351M (5 years)
2017 - forecast to spend $100-110M

Mkt Cap today is £223M. I guess you can argue they have not spent well, and wasted the money (especially since gold production in 2010 was 445K ounces, more than 2016). Equally you could argue they have a shed load of assets, with a very low valuation.

[grbaker] 21/2/2017 10:15

A couple of interesting articles IMHO, if anybody has some free time on their hands today:



And, Alan Greenspan on Gold:



The actual, complete interview, paraphrased in the above link, is contained within this .PDF:

GLA.

[popeye888] 20/2/2017 23:13

What a wally

[wallywoo] 20/2/2017 17:47

Think stuupid and popeye are one and the same! I will take that bet, you think pog share price will not change in 18 months. I think it will be significantly higher in 12.

[popeye888] 20/2/2017 16:50

Well summarised Stoopid.

[stoopid] 20/2/2017 14:39

Wally, I'm not missing anything. It's just that I hope you are right. I like your optimistic posts but like any good agnostic I will believe it when I see it from POG. It's all still "jam tomorrow" and promises atm. We are yet to see the subatance, and until that occurs there will be no substantial re rating. More Oz required, divi restarted, POX up and running, Oz from underground mining, debt on a sustainable downwards path. Has any of this occurred? Nope. But hopefully it will....

[grbaker] 20/2/2017 13:46

U.S. Federal Reserve's most recent meeting minutes are due to be released today... which may move Gold. See this Dow Jones News snippet:

[wallywoo] 20/2/2017 12:11

lol, I also use the term IMO. The reason why I own gold stocks are because of these reasons not because they are such fantastic company's. That is point I was making, but believe whatever, really don't care.

If you want to gain your own opinion then read and listen to the many useful interviews and articles on Kingworldnews.com, or many other well informed commentators and post what you think! Much more interesting than stupid sarcastic comments! That requires a much lower level of intelligence and thought and pointless to read. - IMO