Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[deanroberthunt] 03/10/2016 11:39

EV value is worth 3x the current even without paying down the debt, which they are, pay down the debt aswell into a Gold long term bull market, then this has 10 bagger all over it.

[deanroberthunt] 03/10/2016 11:36

I'm in, looks set for a big move up......even Shareprophets are bullish, think it's number 3 or 4 on TW's biggest holdings....out of 7

[midasx] 03/10/2016 10:18

Let's hope so because this has been like having your teeth pulled over many many years!

[tsmith2] 03/10/2016 09:23

The beauty here is market sceptical, large deals clouding picture and no real excessive stock available..When POG start announcing bits of news, will significantly re-rate v quickly

[grbaker] 30/9/2016 15:43

Here's the Telegraph article:

[gilotron] 30/9/2016 15:41

So 60m on 750m is 12.5% interest. GVC one of my holdings is paying 2% on 250m

[grbaker] 30/9/2016 15:39

I'm not sure why they'd start the POX up themselves (if my assumptions, which are all based on how the recent RNS is worded, are correct) Cliffo.

My best guess is that it's one of these:

1. With Gold up at $1,300, they don't need the GMD deal and are going it alone (e.g. with maybe GMD using the POX plant on an off-take basis);
2. The deal with either AZ or Renova is worth more to them, but giving up 49% of the POX hub is not acceptable to one or more of the parties (probably Renova);
3. Their banks (who they mention) are not happy with the loss of 49% of the POX asset and are saying something along the lines of 'you can renegotiate your repayment schedule, but only if you don't give up 49% of the POX asset'; or
4. The deal has soured for some other reason.

We'll have to wait and see. I could well be wrong and jumping to conclusions: it might simply be a badly worded RNS.

Of course, as far as I'm concerned, it's better not to lose 49% of the POX asset... I suspect it would strengthen their position with any other parties. For example, it shows that they don't need them to get the POX plant going; while simultaneously demonstrating that their finances are OK.

Hard to know isn't it? To me it reads/appears like they've taken a step back from the GMD deal for some reason.

AIMHO.

[dan554] 30/9/2016 15:34

If they carry on paying the debt off bit by bit it makes me more positive. Gold I believe is going to rise again and they could do share buy backs as a possiblity?.



good luck all.

[wallywoo] 30/9/2016 13:48

There was an article in the telegraph on POG yesterday with Hambro saying how flexible the banks were with them. Interest and bond charges were $30M for the half year. Compare that to HGM who had interest charges of $3.5 on $200M of debt. I know POG have 3 times the debt but there are certainly some savings to be made in a decent bank deal.

[cliffo2] 30/9/2016 13:26

Good point GRB regarding the projection of the fact that they have developed the pox hub further under existing financial circumstances. Would that strengthen their position through the ongoing corporate activities?

[grbaker] 30/9/2016 11:25

P.S. Here's some quick extracts from the GMD announcement of 28th April 2016:

"
28 April 2016

Petropavlovsk signs agreement with GMD Gold to finance the completion of the Pressure Oxidation Project


etc.

The JV is being created in order to finance the completion of the construction and commissioning of the Company's Pressure Oxidation Hub Project ("POX Hub" or "the Project") at its Pokrovskiy mine

etc.

The Group will contribute the Project to the JV in its current state of construction whilst GMD Gold will contribute US$120 million which is the estimated cost required to bring the Project to completion and commissioning. Commissioning of the POX Hub will enable the start of processing of the Group's refractory ores and the commencement of gold production from refractory reserves starting in 2018.

etc.

The agreement is subject to a number of conditions which include, inter alia, the approval of Petropavlovsk's existing lenders, including Sberbank and VTB

etc.
"



So my point is why is PH now saying that the "financial and operational progress we have made has enabled the Company to progress the development of our flagship POX project", if GMD was supposed to finance the project?

Anyway, draw your own conclusions!

Hopefully we'll get some clarity by the end of next month...

[grbaker] 30/9/2016 11:12

"
28 September 2016

Petropavlovsk PLC

Half-Year Report for the Period Ended 30 June 2016

etc.


Introducing the announcement, Peter Hambro, Chairman, said:

...

We are nearing our main strategic objective of amending the maturity profile of our bank facilities with our Russian lenders with a back-ended repayment profile. Key terms have been agreed in principle for the rebalancing of the Group’s debt maturities with its production profile. We expect to be in a position to announce the conclusion of this before the end of October. At this stage we are also expecting to update the market on the previously announced corporate actions and acquisition plans, including the joint venture on the POX assets, the acquisition of the Amur Zoloto assets, and the consideration of the Kamchatka gold assets.

The financial and operational progress we have made has enabled the Company to progress the development of our flagship POX project, which is expected to unlock the value in our c.9.3 million ounces of refractory gold reserves and resources.

etc.

CORPORATE UPDATE

Proposed Deals
The previously announced corporate transactions will be reassessed upon the conclusion of the extending of the Company’s bank facilities, which is the immediate priority. Corporate transactions remain subject to shareholder approval and any circular relating to the transactions would only be published once the financing discussions are complete. The Company will make further announcements as to the progress of these transactions during the fourth quarter.

etc.

Commenting on the announcement, Pavel Maslovskiy, CEO, said:

...

Unlocking value from our Refractory Reserves

I am pleased to report that we have taken the decision to progress the development of our flagship POX project, which forms a key part of the Company’s strategy.

With the current refractory reserve and resource base of 9.31Moz (including 3.95Moz of JORC reserves at Malomir and Pioneer), we expect the project to unlock significant value for our shareholders and ensure sustainable production from refractory assets for 20 years with excellent growth potential.

The proposed project schedule is about two and a half years including a full ramp-up of the plant.

The ramp-up is based on each of the 4 autoclaves starting one month apart commencing September 2018 and finishing December 2018. During the initial stage we are planning to process Malomir concentrate. Once fully ramped up the POX plant is expected to process c.500kt of refractory concentrates per year. The POX plant design allocates slots for two further autoclave vessels, which can be added in the future increasing processing capacity by 50%.

We are extremely excited to be able to return to this project, which will allow us to realise the value of refractory resources not only within the Group but also within the Russian Far East area. The POX Hub design allows for separate and simultaneous processing of refractory concentrates with a wide range of metallurgical properties and could be used as a processing base for third parties on an offtake agreements basis.

etc.
"



OK, so I might be reading between the lines here far too much; but has anybody else noticed that PH/PM both state that they are restarting the POX project (and that there's also no mention of whether or not this is dependent upon successful completion of the proposed GMD POX deal)?

I've marked the relevant bits in bold above...

It appears, to me, that they intend to restart the POX project themselves. What this does for the GMD POX deal I'm not sure. It reads to me like they are considering going it alone with the POX project.

Anybody reading that RNS the same way? Anybody got any comments?

On the whole, the update seems pretty good to me; although it's disappointing not to see the debt reduced by more.

GLA, NIAI and please DYOR.

[gilotron] 29/9/2016 20:51

Stockopedia has the assets as 1.2b

[cliffo2] 29/9/2016 12:34

Volume has been very low preceding and during results so has been a 'wait and see' situation. Now, with no significant sell-off, buyers are coming in and short possibly closing.

[qs99] 29/9/2016 12:28

think the share price is moving in anticipation of the debt deal they reference in the RNS...DYOR etc, but if this is decent then IMO it should see an uptick ....let's see how well the management can negotiate

[tsmith2] 29/9/2016 09:49

Lots of news to come...cusp Plus gold price imo going much higher too

[midasx] 29/9/2016 07:19

In short, Petropavlovsk is delivering on the objectives that were set in 2015 to achieve our primary aim - the rebuilding of shareholder value. We look forward to updating you on our progress."


????????????

[seppsuess] 28/9/2016 12:26

I can wait like a turtle for more Joe Publics to come.
The price is manipulated and scares small investors off.
TESLA, Fakebook and even orther goldmines are soo much more promising...

[tsmith2] 28/9/2016 12:20

Share price really function of acquisition deal..Personal happy either way

[popeye888] 28/9/2016 11:12

Looks like investors are not impressed with latest report, share price still depressed. Maybe management need to talk with HGM managers and see what they are doing as their share price is going through the roof.
Only the same old loyal employees posting positive comments on here (you will be right one day!)

[davidlloyd] 28/9/2016 09:47

Why is it that it seems that when Jo Public wants to buy in quantity the price rises in response, but when an Insti wants to unwind a short position, the price gets held back for them to do so....or is that just my (ignorant, no doubt) perception.....

DL

[wallywoo] 28/9/2016 08:38

downtrend in the share price since May 16 has now broken upwards. I now expect a nice stead rise to above 8p. What happens then will depend on the news flow

[tsmith2] 28/9/2016 08:16

Interesting to note they use $1,100/oz in the valuation..

[tsmith2] 28/9/2016 08:02

Things coming together here v nicely, could be a very good few months for share price