Petropavlovsk Share Discussion Threads

[dan554] 19/9/2016 18:21

The main thing I want to see, is how much more debt has been paid , this is the thing keeping the brakes on.

[grbaker] 19/9/2016 10:23

Disclosed positions in PETROPAVLOVSK PLC

Fund manager % short Change Date changed/created
Polygon Global Partners LLP 0.98% ↓ -0.11% 2016-09-09
Total 0.98%

Source:

[popeye888] 15/9/2016 08:48

I see some real good news, Polygon Global Partners have started to reduce their Short Position on POG.

[tsmith2] 14/9/2016 16:29

Break out of descending triangle?Due a run..

[tsmith2] 14/9/2016 15:30

More good news

[togglebrush] 14/9/2016 15:04

IRC notice in brief
14 Sep 2016
Announcements and Notices - K&S: Hot Testing of the Drying Unit with Drying Kilns Being Tested Further Shipment to Customer Commencing Regular Commercial Production Soon

[bad gateway] 14/9/2016 14:45

Picked a few up just as it was a good release from IRC. Who knows maybe sentiment will turn one day on these stranger things have happened if only to the mayor of warsaw.

[wallywoo] 14/9/2016 14:32

maybe pop, as I say it is certainly is not a confirmed break up. Just speculating that 2 to 3 days mild strength on the share price and the shape of the share price graph since the beginning of May. Time will tell

[popeye888] 14/9/2016 14:04

You have a good imagination wallywoo.

Just don't hold your breath if you are waiting for this one to go up.

[wallywoo] 14/9/2016 12:47

SP to me looks like it is trying to break upwards out of the downtrend trend, since end April. Nice double bottom formation in there too for good measures. Could finally start to see some action here, but not confirmed yet of course.

[popeye888] 14/9/2016 08:58

Problem is we are always hoping the NEXT update will help the share price, but it never does. I hope one day PI are pleasantly surprised.

[tsmith2] 13/9/2016 14:39

The next updates will prove to confirm optimism imo

[stoopid] 12/9/2016 11:31

They won't pay the debt off. They will reduce it via expansion. Higher market cap and producing more gold will reduce the debt ratios without paying too much of the debt off. The cash will be kept back dot the forthcoming mergers and capex.Happy to be proved wrong though wally.POG will only pay off what they have to pay off. Nothing more. They will just keep rolling it over with the Russian banks...

[wallywoo] 12/9/2016 08:38

stoopid. "$450M debt is pie in the sky over the next 12 months". Production will be around 500K ounces so to generate the $150M needed to reduce debt to that level, they would need an AISC of $1000 an ounce, at todays gold price. What is impossible about that?

Debt has been slow to pay off over H1 (Jan to June) because of high rainfall which reduced gold production to 187K ounces, but now the gold price is higher and rain / gold production should be all stations go. POG are forecasting $570M debt at 31/12/16, with a gold price of $1200. So if there is an average gold price of $1300 and they produce 280K ounces they say they can, then that extra $100 gold price would generate an extra $28M. Thus reduce debt to $542M, From there with the underground high gold content ore coming in in 2017, I think $450M is a reasonable expectation.

[grbaker] 10/9/2016 14:41

See also (already posted above by officehead):

* NEW *


GLA and enjoy the weekend...

[grbaker] 10/9/2016 14:31

* NEW *
* NEW *
* NEW *
* NEW *

[grbaker] 10/9/2016 14:30

IRC has also recently published its Interim Report for 2016... quick extract below (and full list of related links, which I'll also be adding to the header, are in my next post):

"
IRC ANNOUNCES 2016 INTERIM RESULTS
K&S COMMENCING REGULAR SHIPMENTS SOON
AND BECOMING A MAJOR IRON ORE PRODUCER

etc.

Wednesday, 31 August 2016: The Board of Directors of IRC Limited (“IRC” or the “Company”, together with its subsidiaries, the “Group”) is pleased to provide the interim results of the Company for the six months ended 30 June 2016.

KEY HIGHLIGHTS
• Net loss attributable to owners of the Company reduced by 95% to US$9.9 million (30 June 2015: US$198.6 million)
• Underlying loss excluding impairment of US$9.8 million (30 June 2015: US$9.0 million)
• K&S completed numerous commissioning tests with the production of maiden ores; on track to commission in Q3 2016 with regular shipments
• Kuranakh moved to care and maintenance with minimal cash outflow and costs
• ICBC waivers obtained – waivers of maintaining certain cash deposits and waivers of the obligations to comply with certain financial covenants
• Agreed with CNEEC to delay the outstanding construction payments – alleviate cash flow in near terms.

Commenting on the results, Yury Makarov, Chief Executive Officer of IRC said:
“As we are announcing our interim results, we are making plans for regular shipments of product at K&S. This is an incredibly exciting moment for IRC and has been a long time in coming. In the past few months, we have announced numerous commissioning milestones for K&S; now the construction at K&S is all but completed and our first trainload of high grade iron ore concentrate is sitting in the wagons awaiting the short trip to its customer. We are expecting to commence regular shipments to customers shortly.

However the commodity and financial markets remain both volatile and challenging for companies like us. We have good relationships with customers in North East China who remain keen on taking delivery of the high quality K&S product but sadly for us the price of the product, set on the international markets, remains weak mainly due to oversupply from Australia. We have maintained a positive and constructive dialogue with our lenders at ICBC and will work with them to try to make sure both their interests and ours are aligned as much as possible.

We are delighted to report that our net loss has reduced by 95% and look forward to improving this result further as K&S comes online. When K&S is in full capacity, our forecast shows that it will produce at a cash cost per tonne of approximately US$34, putting us in a satisfying position at the lower quartile of the industry cost curve. With the help of Amur River Bridge, cash costs will be well below US$30 per tonne.

The second half of 2016 will mark the transformation of IRC as K&S completes its full commissioning. K&S will be our game changer – together with our shareholders, we look forward to the positive impact it will bring to our financial and operational landscapes.”

etc.
"

[grbaker] 10/9/2016 14:10

Google translate of officehead's link:

"
Vekselberg: Petropavlovsk board of directors will consider the purchase of "Gold of Kamchatka" in September

Gold mining company Petropavlovsk Board of Directors will consider the purchase of "Gold of Kamchatka", part of the group "Renova" Viktor Vekselberg, in September, said the entrepreneur RNS.

"This issue will be considered by the board of directors, in my opinion, in September", - said Vekselberg. "There (in Petropavlovsk -. RNS) a lot of different shareholders. Let's see what decision the Board "- he added.

That Petropavlovsk consider buying "Gold of Kamchatka", the company announced in June 2016.

"Renova" is the largest shareholder Petropavlovsk: taking into account the proportion of "Renova" convertible bonds amounts to 21.45%. 12.05% owned by Vailaski Holdings Limited, which is owned by the Chairman of the Board of Directors Petropavlovsk Peter Hambro, Director General Pavel Maslovsky and Andrei Vdovin. The company's shares are traded on the London Stock Exchange, the market capitalization of about $ 290 million.

"Kamchatka Gold" owns nine licenses to develop gold deposits in Kamchatka with a total resource base of over 12 million troy ounces (over 375 tonnes) of gold. In the first half of 2016 the company increased its gold production by almost three times compared to the same period last year - to 92.1 thousand troy ounces (troy ounce - 31.1 grams).. Sales in the first half amounted to 91.1 thousand. Oz (plus 172% as compared to the same period in 2015) at an average selling price of gold $ 1,227 an ounce.
"


officehead 8 Sep '16 - 19:18 - 45227 of 45231 0 0
.

[stoopid] 10/9/2016 12:21

$450m debt is pie in the sky in the time u say. Although I would live POG to prove me wrong...

[wallywoo] 10/9/2016 09:51

Debt is $598m not $700m. It is actually debt in relation to mkt cap that's the problem, poly for example have a $1.5b debt but much larger cap. So if they bring down debt to $450 in the next 12 months, get larger with acquisitions and generic growth, then start paying a dividend mkt cap will rocket. Especially if gold stays at these levels or higher

[stoopid] 09/9/2016 15:31

Well, yes I agree with wally to a certain extent. Exciting times to come regarding POX IRC and underground mining. But still a lot of ifs and buts regarding issues other than the mining resources.Debt debt debt.... still an issue. A large $700m issue. If you add IRC debt that POG is still liable for that is approx $950m in debt. The AZ deal is still hanging over the company with the expected durther "dilution" it will bring and there is also the renovo issue still unresolved. Quite a while here before any uplift and will depend if POG managed to get themselves screwed over with the AZ deal or not and what value the market assigns to it.

[gilotron] 09/9/2016 10:26

@wallywoo thanks for taking the time to send that response. The gold move is really quite recent isn't it! I'm going to run the slide rule over pog this weekend and will post back here when I've made some sort of decision but I'd have to agree it does look cheap.

[officehead] 08/9/2016 19:18

www.petropavlovsk.net/images/stories/Presentations/Investor%20PresentationSept2016.pdf

hxxps://rns.online/industry/Vekselberg-sovet-direktorov-Petropavlovsk-rassmotrit-pokupku-Zolota-Kamchatki-v-sentyabre-2016-09-02/

[wallywoo] 08/9/2016 14:05

giltron:

POG have a target of 460K to 500K ounces this year, but because of rain that will probably be nearer 460K.

With underground mining, POX they think that will grow by around 10% for the next few years. So 2017, 550K, 2018 - 605K ounces. The acquisitions are not part of that, so we wait to hear the details on that.

Gold price in H1 (jan to June, was $1194. That is roughly the average gold price for that time. Gold price is H2 likely to be over $1300. So if they produce 280K ounces in H2 at get $1300 for them, debt has got to come down. The market is cautious with this one though, until proven!

Also worthy of note is their 35% holding in IRC. Worth around £40M and increased by 60% in the last 2 months. So the gold assets are currently valued less than $190M. And still people think this is going down, not me.