Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[rossifumi] 11/4/2024 11:00

40p today easily, shorters in panic mode!!!

[jerrypike] 11/4/2024 10:41

apparently IG are charging 85% for stock borrow.....

[investtofly] 11/4/2024 10:38

Maybe some news from PFC very soon

[leoneobull] 11/4/2024 10:26

I'm guessing JN your 4p d4e fantasy is looking unlikely presently judging by price action

[dipa11] 11/4/2024 10:06

Auction time. Good luck

[secretsqu] 11/4/2024 10:05

Topaz ????

[truant2tb1] 11/4/2024 09:23

Who ever is pumping this above 30p is doing me a big favour. Thanks guys

[halfpenny] 11/4/2024 08:46

Get ready RNS soon with great news on Asset Sales and Mega Deals..

Target 45-54p plus more when Suitors Move in. 150p plus...

[halfpenny] 11/4/2024 08:38

Target 45-54p on the way soon as RNS Flow

[armbar] 11/4/2024 08:17

Again, fair point GhhghhThen you have a situation potentially where if short you need to exit first to maximise the gains Interesting as MEED 2.4.24 who are fairly accurate over the years , reported a $1bn upstream Algeria project selected for PFCHave a feeling will be another one update all included RNS Petrofac GL

[armbar] 11/4/2024 08:09

Sure Ayman Asfari 85M shares and et al BOD, Azvalor will be doing their best to secure an outcome Reason its in their interest Extend facilities Non controlling stake JVTakeover Equity Private placement What I would be looking for , Requesting lenders to release part of the collateral , would unlock the doorsGL

[topazfrenzy] 11/4/2024 08:08

Whites you are leading people into losing most of their money, you mention karma, well it is you who will be having it knocking at your door when people here lose the lot

Your ramping not only is delusional, it is clearly calculated to deceive so that you can recover some of your massive losses here ... what was you average again? 85p? LOL

[ghhghh] 11/4/2024 08:08

JN

the 22p came from me a few days ago

Societe Generale updated 22nd March which I've just seen.

They assume a $500m D4E but at 22p! Hence PT 27p up from 26p.

They say Hold but investors should prepare for massive swings in the share price over the coming weeks!

I had lunch with Was and Paul Scott yesterday, we all agreed that the new money always calls the shots. We were referring to Metro Bank where junior BH were complaining about being forced to take a 60% haircut. Applies here as well.

Normally new money wants the lowest entry point possible but the $600m bond debt is big pain in the backside. New equity will want bond haircuts and/or D4E. They won't want to come in behind $600m of debt that redeems 2026.

eg this is purely illustrative but would BHs prefer a 50% haircut and D4E at 5p or no haircut and a 22p D4E. 22p might be high enough to persuade existing equity to cough up and protect what they've got.

I'm not smart enough to do the maths...

[topazfrenzy] 11/4/2024 07:51

If reasonable funding solutions were in the pipeline then the bonds would be repricing as the yield is currently 71% but they know they are about to either have a massive haircut or lose the lot.

This company is worth what JakNife has reiterated: 20m max.

[leoneobull] 11/4/2024 07:06

Slift, LSEEstimated backlog10 Apr 2024 10:13Current backlog following recent awards is estimated to be at approximately $9.4b.Just incredible.

[leoneobull] 11/4/2024 06:53

Short tracker10 Apr 2024 22:48Helikon our largest shorter seems pretty keen to close out its short. Down 1% in Feb/Mar to 2.5%. Maybe they are making bigger moves.

[halfpenny] 10/4/2024 21:23

On the way towards 45-54p.

RNS due soon will be massive...

[leoneobull] 10/4/2024 21:17

22p came from Société Générale.

[jaknife] 10/4/2024 20:53

Good evening Petrofac rampers and realists (ie fellow shorts),

I apologise that the normal routine of shouting "JakNife" three times into a mirror hasn't worked for the last week but I've been across the pond, in DC, hugging cherry trees (it's cherry blossom season) and listening to the song of the American Robin. I've not fully recovered from my jet lag but, as a 52-year-old retiree, it won't be a problem if I nod off during the day, which I freely admit did happen early this afternoon.

I see that rampant speculation again surrounds PFC and I don't want the rampers to think that I've "gone quiet", I simply have nothing new to add and can't see the point of rampant speculation.

Leoneobull, re your 39,379:

=======================================
A highly dilutive d4e at 22p, which is 450% above Jaknife's projections. Then newco will be highly attractive, as will the enlarged share base given we will have a pipeline north of 9 billion heading to 12 to 15 billion by then
=======================================

I don't understand where you get your 22p from? As I've written previously, any capital restructuring has to be implemented based on a "pre-money valuation". Traditionally (*), for large cap D4E swaps in the UK market, this has been done at around about a pre-money valuation of a £20m market cap. For example Interserve was priced at a pre-money valuation of £23m:

Interserve goes into administration after rescue deal rejected


This is the highest pre-money valuation that I can recollect from recent D4E swaps and was pushed to the limit by an aggressive US hedge fund that was long of the equity and seemingly didn't understand the weakness of their negotiating position.

At the end of the day, shareholders in a D4E swap need to accept that the only reason that they're getting anything at all is to "bribe" them to vote in favour of the D4E swap. The alternative to a D4E swap is simply that the bondholders/banks acquire the business in a pre-pack administration and re-float the business at a later date. Provided that the costs of that process are less than £20m then the bondholders/banks should be indifferent between a D4E swap or pre-pack administration.

Hence you'll see that my "4p" forecast hasn't simply been plucked out of the air, it equates to a £20m market cap for Petrofac.

* I emphasise the word "traditionally" because there has been a change of law in the UK, which has created the new concept of a "Restructuring Plan". Such a plan would permit a more severe solution to be forced on shareholders, but I can't see the need for one with Petrofac.

JakNife