Petrofac Share Discussion Threads

[armbar] 08/4/2024 15:24

Indeed Dealy especially from very well versed and experienced BOD and founder , makes you think they would have seen the transformational year $8bn backlog and TenneT cash flow challenges ahead, could have raised if required at 70-80 10months ago The first contract and upfront payment was an issue , delay with the German and Dutch state with the 25Bn loan did not help either, plus delayed payments like Thai oil but now near completion. TenneT one and two secured , two await guarantee , interesting this special situation fund in active discussion to take a non controlling stake part of the portfolio , maybe it is the TenneT 6 contract or the EP division, Cash injection , many ways to reward the investment , and this would unlock payments and remove challenge RCF, Bonds not until Nov 26 and onwards with the 60bn pipeline 8bn cash flow.Unless Adnoc step in JV or a takeover at these levels def a possibility. If not and an Apollo cash injection JV future would look bright for a share price recovery Interesting PFC not reporting on the Algerian $1bn upstream selected last week maybe just crossing T and dotting i Anyway we await GL

[dealy] 08/4/2024 13:04

when the dust settles on this, the following points should be reflected upon:- why did this cash crisis creep up on the company? After all, they raised equity just 2.5 years ago and at the time, it was considered enough- was the debt level too high at time of issuance?- has the company flagged these risks early enough to all investors?- why has it taken 6 months to actually address these issues (still not announced and maybe not addressed yet)

[halfpenny] 07/4/2024 21:04

RNS is required updating the market on Success and updates on progress.

Potential is huge especially as shares become cheaper then the upside is massive.

Future Brighter...adding more before the RNS

[dealy] 07/4/2024 15:38

given the strong order book and the fact that each month certain milestones are generally met, I have the feeling that time is on the side of the company and that the cash situation is likely to be improving every month. It's now months since the cash-fear started and it is likely that the balance sheet already looks better now than back in November. Time is on their side

[investtofly] 07/4/2024 13:35

Everyone wants something for nothing

[investtofly] 07/4/2024 13:33

Should hear something in a week or so

[armbar] 07/4/2024 10:35

Follow on , from below , now danger is do they let PFC default and acquire even cheaper but recent SFO would mean probably another investigation with banks creditors, plus it is illegal fraudulent and will cause huge issues.How do Adnoc get PFC on the cheap 1. MBO buy out remaining 70% take private or you could take into a public company this is possible 2. Hostile takeover makes me think schroders shares 30M and shorts 60M and the noise last 6months plus maybe also a share swap at an agreed price with Asfari then buy the rest at a cheaper price 3. Straight takeover but need votes likes of Ayman Asfari founder BOD, Azvalor at what price , AA paid 115p $38M unless do a private deal swap above 4. Cash injection and Structure with equity shares, convertibles , warrants , private deal , with a view to making a cash injection now and continue to build their stake from non controlling stake to controlling , maybe with the share swap option Asfari now or later 5. Renegotiate the RCF terms and bonds and await whilst building their stake to eventually acquire 6. Now Equity raise is there , maybe a private deal cash injection , share swaps build a position , 7. D4E at as I have said previous 15-20p but would be latter options for obvious reasons for major shareholders even at 20P shorts have 60M plus to buy back to make the most of their gains , what happens to the share price ? Domino effect Now the benefit of having BOD, Asfari founder has 85M shares is he will want what is best for him, he has influence , has touted for a while about exiting PFC, question is the price and how this happensSell non core assets raising cashClose legacy contacts cash Once above complete opens the doors for acquirers , JV and reduces their riskQuestion JV or Takeover but it wont be pretty as they will want it as cheap as possibleFinally GL stay healthy and blessed

[armbar] 07/4/2024 10:23

Taking many assumptions using worst case scenarios using discounted cash flow backlog $8bn , you sitting down starts with a 3 or even if you discounted further, a 2, do the research yourself Now consider IF the 60bn pipleine starts to work through , even a hit rate of 1 in 4 is another 15bn, TenneT alone is circa 1.4Bn per system every six months for 6 systems Europe based on feed studies need min 20 systems, Now work that out, even using current enterprise value over £1.20 AA paid 115p $38MThat is why someone will want this , the challenge is they will want it cheap as possible use the cheapest valuation.

[ghhghh] 07/4/2024 08:49

Societe Generale updated 22nd March which I've just seen.

They assume a $500m D4E but at 22p! Hence PT 27p up from 26p.

They say Hold but investors should prepare for massive swings in the share price over the coming weeks!

[halfpenny] 07/4/2024 08:23

Very positive as Takeover becomes more likely at these levels with Mega Deals and Asset sales in the pipeline.

45-54 Target

RNS expected soon.

[investtofly] 07/4/2024 08:10

What price did you come too?

[armbar] 06/4/2024 22:06

Do one thing research a valuation based on discounted cash flow DCF for a company with an $8bn backlog Take the lowest estimation you will be very surprised imo JV , Takeover Adnoc imo , why , Uae in country value, technology , expertise , resource, 9000 employees , scalable wind , hydrogen and CCUS in demand globally , the 60bn pipeline, in house capability PFC provides to an Adnoc, vertical and horizontal integration GL

[investtofly] 06/4/2024 18:21

I would think Asfari will have something to say against it I'm sure

[wallywoo] 06/4/2024 15:02

With over 11% of the shares short, by far the largest short position for the market. This is too risky. Could easily fall 50% on cash raise news.

[investtofly] 05/4/2024 23:17

Fingers crossed for some news very soon

[armbar] 05/4/2024 22:12

2.4.24ADNOC Gas CEO Ahmed Alebri said: We aim to expand internationally by acquiring new positions in the gas value chain.ADNOC Gas, a unit of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), has announced plans to invest $13bn (Dh47.74bn) in domestic and international growth opportunities over the next five years. Certainly, Acquiring an Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) company could be a strategic move to expand your presence in the gas value chain. An EPC company specializes in designing, building, and managing energy infrastructure projects, which could complement your existing operations or help you enter new markets. It could provide vertical integration, greater control over project execution, and potentially cost savings. It's a significant step, so thorough due diligence and alignment with your strategic goals are essential.

[investtofly] 05/4/2024 21:09

Asfari must know sometime otherwise he would have been out by now.

[noramping] 05/4/2024 15:20

I presume news this month, PFC have commitments to pay.

[armbar] 05/4/2024 15:04

And there is more Like the flood gates have opened roll on Monday Adnoc Onshore awards contracts for well tie-ins packagesFour contractors have been picked for the two EPC packages of the project that covers conversion of wells and installation of tie-ins at Abu Dhabi's Southeast cluster of oil fieldsMEED 5.2.24

[armbar] 05/4/2024 15:00

Contractors prepare bids for Lower Zakum oil project, Adnoc Offshore intends to raise the oil production capacity of the Lower Zakum offshore hydrocarbon concession in the long-term through the multi-billion-dollar projectMEED 5.2.24Petrofac :) Adnoc and Lower Zakum LTDP1 and LTDP2 ring any bells :)

[armbar] 05/4/2024 12:52

Ayman Asfari not sold any in the last year still owns according to the RNS today 85Million shares , 16% Total voting rights 525M Ask yourself why ? Ask why Azvalor not sold any ?Ask where has the 30M schroders gone? Ask where are the 60M declared shorts gone ?Yet contracts still being won , $1Bn Algeria , Bahrain today , somehow monies for guarantee on Hanshan 1 now reported, does this mean there is a Habshan 2 ?5th March RNS Negotiations continue with a broad set of credit providers with a view to obtaining the guarantees contractually required for other recently awarded contracts.Other contractS ... tick tock