Petrel Resources Share Discussion Threads

[talkman2] 15/9/2020 22:43

Thanks KD for your potential share price value for PET. Should see massive upside from these levels if PET secures these Iraqi licenses

[ajj2003] 15/9/2020 20:59

Hopefully JT still on the happy pills after CLON RNS yesterday.

[ducky fuzz] 15/9/2020 20:30

Thanks kd.

Wonder if there will be anything in the Interims next week.

[fenners66] 15/9/2020 20:21

I see kd (kinda desperate?) on the gamblers thread has trotted out a slightly reshaped ramp from a couple of weeks ago again.

Well then , lets rehash the analysis of it.......


I see the gamblers are still hard at adding 2+2 to make 27.

Iraqs cabinet have "resolved" to do something.....

Have they been taking lessons from PET/CLON ?

The same post says they had proposed to do something about the Iraq National Oil Company .... SINCE 2018 so 2 years later they have decided to do..... something.

Now they are trying to attribute this something to DH comments about PSA after he claimed that the oil price war 2020 had "forced" them to do something.

Wow what a great prediction ... he can see the future..... or perhaps he could actually see them trying to do something since 2018 and has decided to add his spin, the exert(if that is what it is an not just the musings on that BB) mentions nothing about PSA.

Even if it did it still has no more relevance - PET are not a multi-billion oil production company backed by a world superpower....

PET are a very small company run by a few blokes who run with stories of projects that might one day come to something , BUT , they are all dependent upon something else (out of their hands ) happening first.
That way they can remain separate from any outcome for a very long time , meanwhile the gamblers cannot sell just in case something ever happens.

Stuff does happen every few years .... the intangibles get written off and new shares to fund their next project are issued.

Capital diluted , accumulated losses increased , new project to wait and hope for an outcome; until the next write off and the next project......

20 years later , dust down old rumours.... running out of ideas ?

[kdickson] 15/9/2020 20:10

Stop it! :)

This makes me think the INOC oil law revisions may happen sooner than we think. This would be the key to PSA type hybrid contracts being awarded.



Ties back to this article from a week or so ago:

[ajj2003] 15/9/2020 20:07

Straight to the point again Ken ;)

IG Index quarterly spread bet close out today, back up tomorrow.

[valentine73] 14/9/2020 15:44

I don't see anything on Nex yet. We should be up i think, not down

[the sage] 14/9/2020 15:39

I was just about to post that myself. There's lots more buys gone through.

[holdingtight] 14/9/2020 15:36

The figures here suggest we should be blue - presumably sells have it on the other market.

[kdickson] 14/9/2020 15:27

Could do with a bit of vertical again! :)

[ducky fuzz] 14/9/2020 15:23

I'm at work .. :-)

[kdickson] 14/9/2020 15:23

 
It's going to be interesting to see what the interim's say about Block 6.

Remember that the way Block 6 was described each year in the Annual Reports from 2014 to 2017 remained static with the same descriptive line:

2017 AR - Petrel retains its interest in the Western Desert Block 6 exploration and development contract
2016 AR - Petrel retains its interest in the Western Desert Block 6 exploration and development contract
2015 AR - Petrel retains its interest in the Western Desert Block 6 exploration and development contract
2014 AR - Petrel retains its interest in the Western Desert Block 6 exploration and development contract

And then it suddenly changed in the 2018 (and 2019) AR to:
"Western Desert Block 6: 100% Petrel Working Interest. Awaiting ratification. 30 year term, or until early pay-out"

This suggested to me at the time that there had definitely been discussions happening with the IOM about Block 6. Remember that Stroytransgaz got awarded Block 17 nine months after this (Sep 2019) with a stated "34 YEAR TERM" - very similar to the new appearance of "30 YEAR TERM" shown for Block 6 above.

[elmfield] 14/9/2020 15:22

DF, Sometimes better just go out and do something else for a while, when you return it can look different.

[ducky fuzz] 14/9/2020 15:04

Online 5.05p sell (which hasn't changed all day) & 5.28p buy for 50k.

[blakieboy7] 14/9/2020 14:53

Imagine if we had a single RNS with great news on Ghana and Iraq..... if Carlsberg did RNS's!!

[ducky fuzz] 14/9/2020 14:03

Hi elmfield .. I just feel that the share price should be going up & it isn't. Just wondering why.

[elmfield] 14/9/2020 13:59

DF,
No problem raising cash at around a share when required!

[ducky fuzz] 14/9/2020 13:53

We should get the same Ghana update that CLONtarfe announced today & they are up 11.8% .. so no bad news on Ghana. We also have enough cash to last us till next year plus.

Will Petrel want to raise additional cash to push their prospects forward in Iraq ?

[ducky fuzz] 14/9/2020 13:49

We are due a historical interim update next week .. last year 23rd September.

[ajj2003] 14/9/2020 13:46

A Merjan / Block 6 win double will do just fine then;)

[kdickson] 14/9/2020 13:31

Talkman2, these are the kind of share price scenarios I believe are possible....


Akkas share price

That Gas World article stated that the South Korean KOGAS company were offered a remuneration fee of $5.50 per barrel of oil equivalent. A barrel of oil equivalent (boe) is about 6000 cubic feet of gas, so IF we got involved with Akkas development and production reached the stated aim of 400million cu ft/day, then I think the sums might be:

400million/6000 = 66,667 boe per day @$5.50 per boe = $366,667 or £285,000 per day.

Over a year, that's £104 million income per year to the JV. Say Petrel got 50% share of that remuneration fee income (total guess) and KOGAS or whoever got the remainder, then:

50% of £104m= £52m/157m shares = 33pps.

At a PE ratio of 10, that's £3.30 per share


Merjan share price

The value to Petrel if we 'only' got awarded Merjan-Kifl-West Kifl and it was developed into a 100,000 bopd producer, then that alone would be company changing.

At 100,000 bopd, and assuming we got a 20% profit share, then with a conservative 2021 oil price of £30pb, that would be an annual profit of £219 million per year (100,000 x 365 days x £30pb x 20% share to PET).

That would support a share price of £14 per share.

(£219 m / 157 million = £1.40 earnings per share x PE of 10 = £14 ps and mcap of just over £2 BILLION).

...and that's without Block 6 ;)


Block 6 share price

Here are my thoughts on award of a BLOCK 6 exploration licence (re-hashed from previous posts).

What would be the immediate effect on PET’s share price? We know it will certainly go up, BUT, by how much? 50p, 150p, 200p??

I suppose it depends on several factors and how the market interprets these factors, including perceived ‘risk’ associated with Iraq, perceived probability of reserves in reality (until drilled) being anywhere near the figures of 3-5 billion barrels that DH estimates and the value given to ’oil in the ground’.

I think we can make ‘an educated’ (and perhaps very conservative) calculation of the price that the market should (in theory!) allow within days of the awarding of Block 6. This is based on coming up with a sensible estimate of the value of oil in the ground (no drilling done).

Assumptions:
Petrel would be operator of the licence; Itochu (or Netoil?) would provide (cheap) debt finance and take the oil (Itochu are the biggest buyer of crude in the Pacific and Netoil has plenty expertise in trading oil too).

Assume a conservative 2021 oil price of £30pb (Goldman are predicting £40/$50 in 2021).

Since ‘lifting cost’ per barrel in Iraq is only $2 - $3 per barrel, I’m ignoring this.

I have used a figure of 10% of reserves as a simple and VERY CONSERVATIVE method of getting to an estimate for an ‘oil in the ground’ value. As a reality check, 10% of a £30/barrel oil price is £3pb which seems reasonable for an ‘in the ground’ price.

David Horgan said, in a 2007 interview, that he believed PET as operator of Block 6 would receive 25-35% of net production revenues, while the State company would take the remainder. Let’s assume lowest of 25%.

Assume that this 25% gets split with ITOCHU (or other JV partner) for barrels of oil, say 40% to PET as operator and 60% remainder to Itochu/JV.

Let's assume 'only' 3 billion barrels in Block 6 (vs 3 to 5 billion estimated) (or up to 80 billion barrels - see my post 15994).

Calculation:
3 billion barrels x 25% net interest = 750 million barrels x 40% = 300 million barrels to PET.

300m bls x 10% (oil in ground value) = 30m barrels.
30 million barrels x £30 = £900 million.

Divide by 157m shares = £5.73 per share

PS. As posted before I believe that Block 6 could potentially hold 10x more than the official "3 to 5 billion" barrels.

However, I am a realist and cannot see anything like this value being achieved ‘within days’ of the contract confirmation BUT what it DOES do is make it seem like a REALISTIC POSSIBILITY that something like £5 could be achievable in the very short term (of award of Block 6).

All the above depends on getting some kind of PSA type contract which DH seems to believe is now on the cards.

[currypasty] 14/9/2020 13:02

I would guess PET interim results this week, or next

As per CLON news today, nothing to report on Ghana, so all eyes on update on Iraq

[bountyfull] 14/9/2020 12:02

See f66 is spinning like mad again to earn a buck. So 'critical' meetings were scheduled in March 2020. Sounds a lot more promising.