The rise over the last couple of days is not down to just HB TUs. Market sentiment is playing a big part here. Today also Gaza peace deal and main markets rising.
There's still inflationary pressures from UK govn and Trump policies to come down the line.
Best to trade
sikhthetech20 Feb '22 - 15:26 - 5884 of 5899 Edit
<..>
When the housing market crashes, no HB is immune from the crash. Likewise, listed HBs are not immune from stockmarket falls or movements.
Govn support, provided during pandemic, has ended. Repossessions which were stopped during pandemic are legal again.
Around 30k homeowners in severe mortgage debt.
Inflationary pressure, interest rate rises, NI rises, Council tax rises, energy price rises all impact affordability. |
Best to be in a market where there is a shortage of the goods you supply.
As long as you are canny, you should always come up smelling of roses.
GLA. |
StT, in 2022 PSN build 5000 more houses than this year, so the labour is there to increase completions by 50%.
Interest rates are a bigger issue, yes. |
hamhamham,
Yes spike due to lower UK & US inflation figures. Service inflation is still too high though.
Expectation being that BoE will reduce interest rates.
However, both UK and US govn policies are inflationary. Therefore, interest rates will continue to stay higher for longer.
I think it's best to trade HBs. |
ymaheru
If HBs up builds numbers then there will be a shortage of labour, which will result in increase in costs.
sikhthetech - 12 Mar 2024 - 23:09:19 - 5410 of 5913
Immigration/demand.
During GFC there was demand from Europe. Several East European countries joined the EU in 2000-2004 and there was freedom of movement. Post brexit, that freedom of movement no longer exists.
Plus if there was huge demand then why are HBs reducing no of builds? Potential homebuyers can't afford the homes, so HBs reduce the supply. |
Correct, PSN are very self sufficient. |
yma, I have been in the industry for 50 years & trust me suppliers will not be able to keep up, not here or Europe, Brick plants have been closed & built on, I'm not sure many companies will want to expand with a Labour Rule. |
Ahhh US CPI good numbers! |
Doesn't PSN make there own bricks? therefore to some degree control there supply chain? |
The spike must be a gaza peace deal? |
RBC raises Persimmon price target to 1,325 (1,275) pence - 'underperform'
Deutsche Bank Research raises Persimmon to 'buy' (hold) |
Jugears, materials can magic up. Even bricks can keep up, as suppliers produce more or importers import more.
However, your point about labour is more real. New builders can’t be switched on overnight and we’re not allowed to import them nowadays.
Yet, PSN are completing 5000 houses less than 2022, so getting anywhere near those completions again should really boost this share price anyhow. I don’t see any obstacles if the customers are there (which will depend on lower interest rates, I’d guess). |
See a return to £14 mark is possible in the next few months. Inflation not due to rise anymore and encouragement from government to build more. Results very good and more to come. Plenty of upside…. |
Sicko is a perfect example of what the filter option is for, will never be unfiltered as has nothing to provide to any conversation, in the history of the world.
On a brighter personal note, I sold off a lot of stock last week, switching half to cash. Fortunately that didn't include PSN... |
Sales were expected to increase as buyers take advantage before Stamp Duty changes come in, effective from April.
I mentioned that some time ago. Other concerns I had were to do with the divi, cash etc.
Their cash has reduced significantly.
They now down to only £260m. They returned £192m to shareholders and have completed remedial work on 70% of known developments.
If they maintain that divi payment or there's further remedial work, unknown, then they likely to need to use debt or need a placing. Therefore, I expect yet another divi cut.
I traded HBs today and will look at the other HBs reporting this week before deciding my next move.
"We ended the year with net cash of c.£260m, ahead of previous guidance, having returned £192m to shareholders and spent c.£60m on building safety remediation during the period (bringing our total remediation spend to date to c.£120m). We continue to make good progress with remediation works underway or completed on over 70% of known developments." |
bounty
"around the upper end" so better than the consensus"
Upper end of expectations but they didn't beat expectations.
Number of completions beat expectations.
Completions rose, as expected.
"We expect to report an underlying operating margin in line with the prior year, as previously guided, with 2024 underlying profit before tax expected to be around the upper end of market expectations."
H1, they said private forward order book was up 28%
Net private sales rate up 5%
were expecting home completions c10,500 |
Beckers
"Trolls are quite"
"Where is Sikhthetech"
I know you need my input because the company/sector newsflow has been as I expected. See my posts since covid.
I read the rns and have been enjoying my day so far, some nice trading. Just watching you and jugears make a fool out of yourselves, yet again and as you have been for years.
I'll post my views when I'm ready, if that's ok with you.
btw,
It's spelt "quiet"!!
Whilst you're waiting for my input...
Get yourself a dictionary, spell checker, calculator and go to specsavers to check out your eyesight.
Look up definition of troll then check current share price and check posting history. Ask any 5 year old whether 1100p is below my 1300-1500p target range???? |
I thinks its a firm footing for better things to come, All house builders offer outstanding value IMEO, whatever happens there is an on going shortage of new homes & that shortage is getting larger, There are very few house builders than can build in volume at competitive prices, Vty will probably pull prices back tomorrow but only because the markets & a lot of posters on here can't differentiate between two completely different business models! |
"around the upper end" so better than the consensus |
As expected? |
Trolls are quite, lol!
Where is Sikhthetech, the resident village idiot that has been predicting a UK house price crash for over 6 years, lol, just lol! |
We expect full-year underlying profit before tax for 2024 to be around the upper end of market expectations (£349m to £390m) with underlying operating margins similar to last year, in line with previous guidance.
Our forward sales position has increased by 8% to £1.15bn compared to the prior year (31 December 2023: £1.06bn), showing the value of our three strong brands (Persimmon Homes, Charles Church and Westbury Partnerships). Of this £653m relates to private forward sales (31 December 2023: £499m), up 31% including bulk sales (+16% excluding bulk sales), with a private average selling price of c.£276,850 (31 December 2023: c.£266,100).
Better than anticipated, let's see how the market reacts, should be positively imo fwiw! |
Yes it is a very good TU,nice to see low value homes & (low profit) down & private sales up!!
Kreeper your average private buyer only buys one house, if there is demand bor those houses then thats the price you pay, now hadn't you better run along & wipe that egg off your face before school. |
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