Not sure that markets like ‘uncertainties’ tho?:
‘ ‘ we are mindful of evolving macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties, including the timing of future interest rate changes, and the effect that they may have on our market and consumer confidence in the short-term.‘
….’we manage sector-wide challenges, including expected low single digit build cost inflation, the effects of the national insurance increase and regulatory changes such as to stamp duty and the proposed Building Safety Levy. ’ |
Fantastic RNS/Update, also absolutely an excellent company cash position and generally WOW overall results, PSN is SOLID! |
Housing Association forward sales value down 12%
But private sales forward value up 31%
Just goes to show how your average private buyer has no negotiating skills? |
Wow good trading statement, far more positives than negatives. Should see a floor on any more falls and expect over the coming months to test £14. So a lot of upside…. |
Reads well |
A very impressive update here today for a clearly so much oversold & undervalued PSN, should be an excellent day/week for PSN and likely most UK housebuilders!
“Completions up 7%; full year underlying profit before tax to be around the upper end of expectations” |
BOE Gets Solid Demand in Bond Sale Despite UK Market Woes
Sale of £750 million of APF gilts 2.24 times oversubscribed
Central bank under pressure after yield surge over past week
The Bank of England successfully sold £750 million ($911 million) of gilts despite a recent market selloff that has prompted calls for it to pause its quantitative-tightening program.
The auction was 2.24 times oversubscribed on Monday afternoon, only slightly below the 2.66 average cover ratio for short-dated bonds since the start of last year. It suggests demand for securities sold by the BOE is holding up in the face of a sharp rise in government borrowing costs over the last week. |
I was under the impression it was the 15th. But proof is in the pudding tomorrow |
I wouldn't be surprised to see the divi cut again.
Their TU is tomorrow.
There are several HBs reporting over next few days.
PSN 14th
VTY 15th
TW 16th
Crst 21st |
171m net cash I thought that figure was higher and 14% margin moving forward and 600 less plots sold feel like we will see a still lower share price over next few months. There is no confidence the market is horrible and as others have commented UK plc is between and rock and a hard place now with no movement. I hold and was 60% up I am now break even with some divis but I am not convinced this share price is top up time. |
Further broker Buy ratings here:
UBS raises Persimmon to 'buy' (neutral) - price target 1,540 (1,790) pence
Persimmon gets upgrade to 'buy' ahead of next week's trading update |
jd, quality post. |
Adam,
"Its hard to be positive on housebuilders I agree given the impact of Reeves budget"
The problems have been around for a lot longer than the Reeves budget.
Covid provided HBs a boost.
HBs made hundreds of millions of pounds from Help to Buy scheme. That's closed.
I've been negative on HBs since covid, initially going short then trading on the way back up and then going short again last summer. That was before the budget.
Go back to before GFC and then you'll be closer to the mark.
If Labour's Chancellor is your problem, don't forget the UK has 4+ years of current govn. Starmer has said he backs his Chancellor, so little chance of a change anytime soon.
There will, obviously come a point when majority of challenges are factored into the price.
That will be the time to buy.
Let's see what the HBs say in their TUs |
Julie,
Several HBs, inc PSN/TW/VTY/Crst, are reporting over next few days. That should give us an ideas as to how they believe current trading outlook.
Currently, it's the outlook which is important.
There's still some time before the next BoE meeting, so plenty of time to look at possible inflationary pressures. |
Adam,
To be honest I think from a valuation perspective the housebuilding sector got ahead of itself and 1700 was very much a high water mark for PSN. The issues goes beyond Reeve’s budget and the seeds were sown by Sunak and Hunt. At a macro level the chill winds are blowing and whether a blue chancellor or a red one, I sense a reckoning is coming. Hunt kicked the can down the road, Reeves is discovering that it can’t be kicked much further (and not at all if you adopt idiotic tax policies rather than take a knife to state largesse). For housebuilders in the short to medium term it is mortgage affordability and the lack of economic stability that is going to make it a lot harder to sell houses. If your time horizon is longer term, there may be a value opportunity but for now I am avoiding the space but have no issue with being proven wrong. |
jd96
Its hard to be positive on housebuilders I agree given the impact of Reeves budget, but equally 1700p to sub 1100p for PSN over c.3 months feels overly harsh. Obviously depends on your time horizon but if you're looking out more than 3-6 months, I think PSN are a solid bet.
Adam |
Tomorrow’s trading update should make for interesting reading. Both in terms of volumes, sales mix and level of buyer incentives. I am actually bearish on housebuilders at the moment despite the level of share price retrenchment over the back end of last year (and this) and have been for some time despite the clear need for new housing stock.
Shift in yield curve bodes ill, their costs are going up and the sales mix is shifting to lower margin house building activity. I actually think carrying values on landbank need to be scrutinised because if margins keep falling the embedded value in their landholdings needs to be adjusted accordingly. |
Will we see three figures this week? |
Quite agree, massively oversold but we may as well hit that target of 1000p now. I would imagine quite a few are holding out for it. |
This gov's (utterly under qualified) cabinet members should be made to take their pay in shares. Maybe they'd wake up to how the economy works. |
Next update due 15th January I believe. Should be positive. Way oversold. |
Cupra,
"People keep talking about affordability and yet here’s my business smashing records"
It's not just people though.
The HBs, themselves, are talking about affordability, having to use incentives etc.
Obviously more will sell at the mo as some will try and beat Stamp Duty changes coming into effect in 3 months time.
There's huge tax rises, huge minimum wage increases which will impact many businesses and therefore potential jobs cuts, which will impact, um, affordability.
PSN talking about affordability. This just 2 months ago!
"Affordability and value remain important to our customers. Affordability constraints, particularly for first-time buyers, have been helped by the initial reductions in interest rates and a greater availability of over 90% loan-to-value mortgage products on the market than a year ago.
Overall pricing held firm in the period, with incentives continuing to run around 4-5% on average." |
People keep talking about affordability and yet here's my business smashing records for January which is normally a very quiet period for us. I visited a site (not persimmon) yesterday and asked how the new year has been. I got told great, sales have sold 2 plots on the first day back. Don't get me wrong, I know some areas it's very different but my company is nationwide and we're as busy as we've ever been. |
cashisking
"it’s a basic need"
Being inside a place is a need. Having food/water, air, warmth and health are basic needs.
Buying a new build, at huge premium to existing property, is not. It's a luxury. |
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