cashisking,
"Historically, interest rates were very much higher during 70s, 80s, 90s,….and people were still buying homes"
That's a very simplistic view without actually understanding the full picture.
During that period potential homebuyers and homeowners budgeted for higher interest rates. They were the norm. An increase in interest from 10% to 15% was 50% increase.
Crucially those potential homebuyers & homeowners had mortgages approved on SINGLE income and usually around 3-4 x SINGLE income. Therefore, budgeting and leaving huge headroom. The partner could also find PART TIME work to help.
More recently, potential homebuyers and homeowners have been budgeting for low interest rates. A rise from 1% to 4% is 400% increase (as opposed to 50% for 10% to 15%). Crucially, as more and more mortgages are approved on 3-5x JOINT INCOME with both partners working FULL TIME, so they can't work extra to make up for short fall.
There's a huge debt crisis. Govn, companies/organisations, individuals. |
House prices were considerably lower compared to wages back then. Affordability now is the issue and why HB's are being hit. Less production - lower profits. |
Historically, interest rates were very much higher during 70s, 80s, 90s,….and people were still buying homes, it’s a basic need, PSN share price looks clearly oversold at the moment but that’s markets! |
 Ricardo,
All going as predicted.
sikhthetech - 13 Jan 2024 - 14:41:18 - 5191 of 5865
ymaheru,
#5183.
Your post is in line with my thinking. My point has been that it's not just about interest rates. Although, I don't agree on the point that interest rates is the biggest factor in affordability.
The biggest problem is affordability. People are struggling to buy essentials, let alone homes, let alone new houses which command a premium.
There is a huge debt crisis, a debt bubble with world governments, businesses, individuals.
After GFC, there was QE.
There was Help to Buy, low interest loans, credit and anything and everything to encourage people to take on huge debt - a debt bubble. We've already seen some banks going bust last year. That I believe will snowball and more will follow.
Just look at the % increase in incentives to encourage potential homebuyers to take on more debt.
House prices are simply too high compared to incomes. Homeowners/potential homebuyers are spending the majority of their income on housing.
That I believe is unsustainable.
Govn interference never works. It simply delays the inevitable and causes more misery to more people.
sikhthetech - 08 Jun 2023 - 13:50:47 - 13781 of 20638 Taylor Wimpey
and those same thousands upon thousands have bought at the top of the housing market. House prices falling and new builds usually command a premium (can be 20%). So those thousands upon thousands will soon be negative equity as well as paying significantly higher mortgage payments.
That's exactly what happened in GFC with some properties falling 40%!!!!
Now do you see how the company/sector newsflow has been as expected and is following a similar course.
Where's the clueless, discredited muppet Beckers today? |
I’d be getting out of anything housing related very quickly, for get stupid newspaper reports and media drivel on house prices, news for the great unwashed, the big story is bond yields blowing out, U.K. debt is costing a fortune. 2008 on steroids starting to take shape. |
Amazing how Jugears & Becky have been completely wrong on HBs and TLY. TLY up 7%.
Yesterday, the govn published NHS plans which include huge increase in use of Private Providers, as was predicted.
Significant shareholder increases today.
How can you be repeatedly clueless???
I'm short on HBs...
TW shorted at 168p, whilst you been loading up all the way down from 170p |
Just mention TLY he will soon go away LOL |
Stonks
Different providers, not reliable indicators.
It's the trend which is more important. The only data which is reliable is Sold prices, from HMRC/ONS
Estate agents publish asking prices, which often get offers and so discounted.
Mortgage providers publish mortgage approvals, which doesn't mean it property will be bought.
RICS provide data based on surveyors valuations - same as mortgage approvals.
ONS - sold prices. Actually sold so more reliable. |
4 days ago "uk house prices rise more than expected in December" - nationwide
today "uk house prices dip for first time since March" - halifax
useless data ffs |
Redburn raises Persimmon to 'buy' (neutral) - price target 1,510 (1,610) pence |
UK house prices rise for fourth month in a row, says Nationwide
"Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said that despite the strong end to the year, the price of an average home still remained below the all-time high set in summer 2022."
"Nationwide said the government’s changes to stamp duty in England and Northern Ireland from March were likely to generate volatility in the housing market, with many buyers likely to push through purchases to avoid paying additional tax."
"“This will lead to a jump in transactions in the first three months of 2025, especially in March, and a corresponding period of weakness in the following three to six months,” Gardner said. “This will make it more difficult to discern the underlying strength of the market.”"
"Nathan Emerson, the chief executive of the estate agents’ body Propertymark, said: “Once the dust has settled following the anticipated rush heading towards April, buyers and sellers may reap the rewards of a slower-paced market, which may allow opportunities for greater negotiation on price from both buyers and sellers.”" |
Brokers are like sheep, they'll follow each other or see what the market is doing and change their targets accordingly...
You have to be naive to base your research solely on brokers.
As Thecomposer mentioned JPM (who reduced their target price in Dec 2024).
Look at broker targets over the past 2.5 to 3 years, ie since I posted mine.
JPM for instance.
Mar 2022 3 years ago(March) they had target of 2830p from 3580p
Nov 2022 dropped to around 2150p
July 2023 dropped again to around 1090p and changed stance to Neutral(downgrade)
Apr 2024 upgraded to 1510p
Dec 2024 dropped target price from 1640p to 1520p
Whereas, in July 2022, whilst brokers had targets of ~1700p to ~2900p, based on my own research and experience I was negative on HBs and said I wouldn't buy any HB and stated my target range was 1300p-1500p.
Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons
Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!! |
Changes in 2025
A lack of certainty over interest and mortgage rates, as well as upheaval caused by changes to stamp duty, could make 2025 difficult to navigate for buyers and sellers.
Housing experts predict the market will see the number of sales increase over the next few months, ahead of the stamp duty changes scheduled for April, before falling away afterwards.
House buyers in England and Northern Ireland will start paying stamp duty on properties over £125,000, instead of over £250,000 at the moment.
First-time buyers currently pay no stamp duty on homes up to £425,000, but this will drop to £300,000 in April.
There are also widespread expectations that the Bank of England will gradually reduce interest rates throughout the year, possibly starting in February, giving confidence to lenders to cut the cost of new fixed mortgage deals.
However, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey recently said "the world is too uncertain" to make accurate predictions of when interest rates would fall, and by how much.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said that house prices remained high relative to average earnings at the start of 2024, which meant that raising a deposit was tough for prospective first-time buyers.
"This is a challenge that had been made worse by record rates of rental growth in recent years, which has hampered the ability of many in the private rented sector to save," he said.
And Holly Tomlinson, financial planner at investment firm Quilter, said: "The looming changes to stamp duty are likely to make purchasing even more difficult for first-time buyers, adding further costs at a time when every penny counts." |
Now just looking incredibly cheap even with the very worst priced in IMO, while also latest broker price target put out on 05 December was an Overweight rating with a 1,520 new price target by JPM! |
Once unemployment gains traction in the recession should see this junk back at 2009 lows. |
Buyers market, as highest number of property for sale in a decade
"Tim Bannister, a property expert at Rightmove, said this would be “driven partly by some major companies mandating a return to permanent office working.
“We think 2025 will continue to be a buyer’s market, which could provide buyers with more negotiating power, given the number of available properties per estate agent is at a decade-high for this time of year.
“There’s less competition amongst buyers than during the pandemic markets, which could provide them with some breathing room to choose the right home at the right price.”
Rightmove recorded its busiest Boxing Day for new seller activity, with a record number of properties listed for sale by agents.
Total buyer demand, measured by the number of inquiries sent to estate agents about homes for sale, was also 20% higher on 26 December than the same day in 2023, as potential buyers capitalised on more choice before a 2025 move."
As to Becky and TLY:
up 48% in 2024.
Govn pumping billions into NHS and new NHS plans due in spring. TLY already have around £20m contract wins/extensions since Labour won.
Would you prefer to buy after others have? |
“UK house prices rise for fourth month in a row, says Nationwide”
PSN clearly way too oversold/undervalued here, and now with company “Trading Update” due on 14 January things should hopefully brighten up rapidly going forward!
UK house prices rise for fourth month in a row, says Nationwide |
Sikhthetech, the mug-punter of them all.
It bought TLY at £3.00.
TLY went to 3.8p on the bid, lol!
Out of the goodness of my heart I advised 'Sikhthetech' to sell at 41p and again at 14p.
It no listen, lol, just lol! |
Opinion : Please go away. |
2nd Jan 2024 1378.5p
31st Dec 2024 1198p
down 13.1%
2 1/2 years ago, target range was 1300p-1500p, share price continued roughly within that range.
sikhthetech - 31 Dec 2023 - 14:52:06 - 5108 of 5660 PERSIMMON PLC - THE CHARTS - PSN
<...>
Opinion: "inflationary Pressures leading to interest rate rises", 6 months before the BoE started raising interest rates
Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons
Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!!
Opinion: Expecting some properties to crash around 40%.
REITS sold some 137 at average 68% loss!!
Opinion: Demand will fall
Property transactions have been falling
Opinion: Trading whilst keeping a negative stance on the property market:
Shorting HBs then trading.
Interest rate will stay higher for longer:
etc
Shorted HBs Sept, eg TW at 168p, before the Autumn Budget
sikhthetech - 20 Sep 2024 - 13:24:28 - 19098 of 20291
Added to my short.. so I'm short from 168p |
Happy New Year to all. |
Agree and at the Xmas break.. |
Oh God. Handbags at dawn. Grow up. |
Sikhthetech,
You are a liar and a fraud, lol!
See my call below, I hope many investors made handsome profits from my advise on TW.
"Beckers2008 - 27 Nov 2023 - 20:57:02 - 17031 of 20515
See below my call "an opportunity not to missed"
It was defo the right call!
""Beckers2008 - 28 Sep 2022 - 08:29:01 - 9948 of 16835
Is there going to be a house price crash in 2022. No.
One particular troll was stating a house price crash in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, lol, just lol!
So much noise on TV and all mainstream media on house prices, mortgages etc, etc, etc...
I have added at 86.498.
Imo, this is an opportunity not to missed, I maybe wrong in the short term but certainly not in the long" |
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