Brokers are like sheep, they'll follow each other or see what the market is doing and change their targets accordingly...
You have to be naive to base your research solely on brokers.
As Thecomposer mentioned JPM (who reduced their target price in Dec 2024).
Look at broker targets over the past 2.5 to 3 years, ie since I posted mine.
JPM for instance.
Mar 2022 3 years ago(March) they had target of 2830p from 3580p
Nov 2022 dropped to around 2150p
July 2023 dropped again to around 1090p and changed stance to Neutral(downgrade)
Apr 2024 upgraded to 1510p
Dec 2024 dropped target price from 1640p to 1520p
Whereas, in July 2022, whilst brokers had targets of ~1700p to ~2900p, based on my own research and experience I was negative on HBs and said I wouldn't buy any HB and stated my target range was 1300p-1500p.
Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons
Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!! |
 Changes in 2025
A lack of certainty over interest and mortgage rates, as well as upheaval caused by changes to stamp duty, could make 2025 difficult to navigate for buyers and sellers.
Housing experts predict the market will see the number of sales increase over the next few months, ahead of the stamp duty changes scheduled for April, before falling away afterwards.
House buyers in England and Northern Ireland will start paying stamp duty on properties over £125,000, instead of over £250,000 at the moment.
First-time buyers currently pay no stamp duty on homes up to £425,000, but this will drop to £300,000 in April.
There are also widespread expectations that the Bank of England will gradually reduce interest rates throughout the year, possibly starting in February, giving confidence to lenders to cut the cost of new fixed mortgage deals.
However, Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey recently said "the world is too uncertain" to make accurate predictions of when interest rates would fall, and by how much.
Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said that house prices remained high relative to average earnings at the start of 2024, which meant that raising a deposit was tough for prospective first-time buyers.
"This is a challenge that had been made worse by record rates of rental growth in recent years, which has hampered the ability of many in the private rented sector to save," he said.
And Holly Tomlinson, financial planner at investment firm Quilter, said: "The looming changes to stamp duty are likely to make purchasing even more difficult for first-time buyers, adding further costs at a time when every penny counts." |
Now just looking incredibly cheap even with the very worst priced in IMO, while also latest broker price target put out on 05 December was an Overweight rating with a 1,520 new price target by JPM! |
Once unemployment gains traction in the recession should see this junk back at 2009 lows. |
Buyers market, as highest number of property for sale in a decade
"Tim Bannister, a property expert at Rightmove, said this would be “driven partly by some major companies mandating a return to permanent office working.
“We think 2025 will continue to be a buyer’s market, which could provide buyers with more negotiating power, given the number of available properties per estate agent is at a decade-high for this time of year.
“There’s less competition amongst buyers than during the pandemic markets, which could provide them with some breathing room to choose the right home at the right price.”
Rightmove recorded its busiest Boxing Day for new seller activity, with a record number of properties listed for sale by agents.
Total buyer demand, measured by the number of inquiries sent to estate agents about homes for sale, was also 20% higher on 26 December than the same day in 2023, as potential buyers capitalised on more choice before a 2025 move."
As to Becky and TLY:
up 48% in 2024.
Govn pumping billions into NHS and new NHS plans due in spring. TLY already have around £20m contract wins/extensions since Labour won.
Would you prefer to buy after others have? |
“UK house prices rise for fourth month in a row, says Nationwide”
PSN clearly way too oversold/undervalued here, and now with company “Trading Update” due on 14 January things should hopefully brighten up rapidly going forward!
UK house prices rise for fourth month in a row, says Nationwide |
Sikhthetech, the mug-punter of them all.
It bought TLY at £3.00.
TLY went to 3.8p on the bid, lol!
Out of the goodness of my heart I advised 'Sikhthetech' to sell at 41p and again at 14p.
It no listen, lol, just lol! |
Opinion : Please go away. |
2nd Jan 2024 1378.5p
31st Dec 2024 1198p
down 13.1%
2 1/2 years ago, target range was 1300p-1500p, share price continued roughly within that range.
sikhthetech - 31 Dec 2023 - 14:52:06 - 5108 of 5660 PERSIMMON PLC - THE CHARTS - PSN
<...>
Opinion: "inflationary Pressures leading to interest rate rises", 6 months before the BoE started raising interest rates
Opinion: "I wouldn't buy any HBs" stating reasons
Opinion: expecting target 1300-1500p based on my comments. It didn't take a million years as some commented!!! Whatever happened to MrSimmons!!!
Opinion: Expecting some properties to crash around 40%.
REITS sold some 137 at average 68% loss!!
Opinion: Demand will fall
Property transactions have been falling
Opinion: Trading whilst keeping a negative stance on the property market:
Shorting HBs then trading.
Interest rate will stay higher for longer:
etc
Shorted HBs Sept, eg TW at 168p, before the Autumn Budget
sikhthetech - 20 Sep 2024 - 13:24:28 - 19098 of 20291
Added to my short.. so I'm short from 168p |
Happy New Year to all. |
Agree and at the Xmas break.. |
Oh God. Handbags at dawn. Grow up. |
Sikhthetech,
You are a liar and a fraud, lol!
See my call below, I hope many investors made handsome profits from my advise on TW.
"Beckers2008 - 27 Nov 2023 - 20:57:02 - 17031 of 20515
See below my call "an opportunity not to missed"
It was defo the right call!
""Beckers2008 - 28 Sep 2022 - 08:29:01 - 9948 of 16835
Is there going to be a house price crash in 2022. No.
One particular troll was stating a house price crash in 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, lol, just lol!
So much noise on TV and all mainstream media on house prices, mortgages etc, etc, etc...
I have added at 86.498.
Imo, this is an opportunity not to missed, I maybe wrong in the short term but certainly not in the long" |
Becky/Jugears are clueless, just read their posting history.
Watched the HB sector for 6MONTHS, his post nearly 3 years ago!!! In Oct 2021, PSN share price 2600p, TW was 157p. Now 1186 and 120p respectively.
Beckers2008 - 29 Mar 2022 - 09:44:37 - 6200 of 16733
<...>
Having watched the HB sector the last 6 months, the oversold position of TW will hopefully reverse.
when PSN share price was around 1300p. Becky claimed it was all in the price!!!
Beckers200827 Jan '23 - 15:05 - 3998 of 4829
'Sikhthetech' you have down a great job ramping this down from mid October! Lol!
It's all in the price you fool and totally oversold in Mid October, only a fool wouldn't know that, but you are the village idiot after all, aren't you, lol, just lol! |
Becky, your hindsight ‘advice’ was unbelievable, well done. You really are one in a million. |
Trolls,
No doubt you have trolled my exemplary track record as far back as my excellent short on RPC (evidently DvD trolled back, lol)and my correct calls on all the shares I bought and sold, everyone returning a handsome profit plus dividends.
You never know I might give you my advice as to an entry point here, but you will not listen, lol!
I advised one troll in particular to sell the dog TLY at 41p and again at 14p but it no listen and the share price went to 3.8p on the bid, lol, just lol!
"Beckers2008 - 16 Dec 2024 - 11:02:34 - 20316 of 20402
BoE base rate on hold for December..." END.
I am correct yet again.
"Beckers2008 - 02 Sep 2024 - 11:10:39 - 5689 of 5788
Remember my statement...
BoE base rate at 6%
Absolutely no chance.
I was correct again.
Q3 2024 interest rate reduction?
Absolutely every chance.
I was correct yet again!
I expect the UK's next rate cut to come in Q4 2024.
I am correct again!!
The latest cut will be followed by four quarterly cuts in 2025 and one cut in 2026 resulting in a 3.5 per cent base rate by the middle of 2026.
Watch and learn trolls, you have lost the argument as I told you over a year ago.
Now when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol!" |
Without significant company/sector newsflow, the share price will, again end another year as expected.
Another year, where Jugears/Becky have been clueless as to how company/sector, political/economic newsflow impacts the housing market and HBs. |
Trolls,
For the last 6 years all you type is the same doom and gloom and house prices have not crashed.
What was the average UK house price in October 2018 compared to October 2024?
Significantly less.
You haven't made a correct call yet, lol!
Now tell me when is the UK house price crash going to happen, lol, just lol! |
It didn't help no. It'll come good |
Merry Christmas all |
Davius
Not at all.
VTY profit warnings started in Nov.
The newsflow on HBs has been as expected.
I maintain a negative stance on HBs.
Labour are in power for 4+ years. |
Kicked in the nuts by the Vistry profit warning I think...
On the downside, builders were knocked by another profit warning from Vistry.
Shares in Kent-based Vistry plunged 16% after it warned of delays to expected year-end transactions and completions, which are now expected in 2025.
The builder, recently relegated to the FTSE 250, expects 2024 adjusted pretax profit to be around GBP250 million, down from previous guidance of around GBP300 million. The company reported adjusted pretax profit of GBP419.1 million in 2023, so this year's result will be down 40%.
It cut its profit expectations to GBP350 million from GBP430 million in early October, before a further cut to GBP300 million in November.
Anthony Codling at RBC Capital Markets said: "On a day when most are winding down or driving home for Christmas, Vistry delivered a present with a sting in its tail, another profit warning, the third and hopefully final one for this year."
"A combination of internal and external factors led to a challenging fourth quarter, and we expect Vistry will be looking forward to seeing the back of 2024, taking some time out and starting afresh in 2025."
Peel Hunt said 2024 has turned into something of an "annus horribilis" for Vistry.
Analysts at Davy Research downgraded the stock to 'neutral'.
"With further cracks appearing in the investment thesis as the UK market continues to struggle, we downgrade the stock to neutral, despite there still being some upside to our price target (773 pence). In the short term, earnings volatility is likely to remain high, and we will wait for some stability and clarity in future earnings and strategy before returning to the investment case."
A report in the FT said UK listed housebuilders are on track to build the fewest new homes for sale in a decade, as planning rules and high mortgage rates hold the market back despite the new Labour government's push to increase housing supply.
The sector, excluding Vistry which focuses on affordable and rental housing, is forecast to complete just over 50,000 homes this year, the lowest level of output since 2013, according to a FT analysis of figures for seven companies compiled by Investec.
Persimmon fell 2.4%, Barratt Redrow was up 0.4% and Taylor Wimpey declined by 1.5%. |
Formally reject UK citizenship because deliberate failure by authorities to act against financial corruption and theft
Failure to act on
Corrupt bonuses by directors following tax payer bailout of their businesses
Protecting shareholders from director fraud
Corrupt tax avoiding landlords stealing from tax payer
Corrupt lawyers defending tax avoiding landlords and their theft of the clean green energy money
Actions by banking sector/tax avoiding investors to make Gov/political system think it has to support property prices with tax payer money so paving way for unchallengeable permanent ruling property owning class
religions failure to raise a peep , apparent inability to make moral judgements
Organised gangs operating in small cap sector with affiliations and tax avoider connections behaving illegally and criminally with impunity
The failure to build the clean energy infrastructure making the world a more dnagerous place
Failure to check political power such that a whole generation of public school chumps have acted primarily for tax avoiders and tax avoiding landlords.
The use of Royals to bolster the unquestioning of the austerity theft (or be threatened lose the divvy)
Failure to build the clean green energy making us less able to defend ourselves and more likely to be put into a longer period of instability or war
(the consequences of that will be further theft of Govs ability to do the right thing at the right time and further empowering of tax avoiding landlords- who lack quorum of brain cells)(and further theft with impunity from shareholders by tax avoiding gangs) (or even Govs being forced to accept loans from international tax avoiding landlords whose very assets we bailed out and received no back payment for)
THIS THEFT AND CHAOS IS ENTIRELY DELIBERATE and AVOIDABLE
see biggest lies thred and Lenigas
DO SOMETHING USELESS AUTHORITY. SCARED OF BLAIR CAMERON AMD CROWN ESTATE RHUGS . WHICH SIDE ARMY AND POLICE ? Much easier to bully pretending don't understand
What about Australia house - you support Lenigas thefts |
Good TU from BDEV & co |
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