Pendragon Share Discussion Threads

[daneswooddynamo] 30/5/2022 14:14

Seems nailed on, they will want control. Early 30s in the current environment could prevail imo

[neo26] 30/5/2022 13:02

28p a share was rejected, i think another bid is coming.They own 27% now.

[lovewinshatelosses] 30/5/2022 12:47

I assume they have a set share price in mind and do not want to pay above that, unless something out of the ordinary happened. It would be entertaining if another party dropped in with a bid right now. That might change the game plan!
Now that we can see they are increasing their position, any further revisits to the 22p level and I am adding further now. Might be a mistake though, not investment advice, DYOR etc.

[microscope] 30/5/2022 11:55

Snail's pace but good to see they're inching towards 29.99pc and hopefully then the compulsory bid.

[s34icknote] 30/5/2022 10:05

Hedin increasing Compulsory bid at 28p ???

[clive7878] 27/5/2022 19:57

I believe that we are awaiting the next trading update before the share price goes anywhere.
Trading 'should' I believe be reasonable as people come out of the pandemic and start looking to upgrade their motors. Even in a recession for some people wheels are a top priority as they believe it is good for their image. There may be a recession and high inflation but look at how busy the roads and planes will be this weekend, many people always have spare money for essentials - cars, holidays, and whatever.

[lovewinshatelosses] 27/5/2022 11:26

Without wishing to tempt fate, when I saw this open down, I had a feeling it was a tree shake. Could not get a low quote for any volume of stock at that time.
Que dramatic collapse in the share price in 5,4,3,2,1... :)

[clive7878] 26/5/2022 21:58

The fundamentals are still good, and the so say downturn in trading and profits this year, I believe will be much lightly than previously suggested, so that makes PDG and VTU better value than at first predicted.
What annoys me is that I am not making the best of the dips though. Could have bought in again at 21.7p only a couple of days ago. The only difference between PDG and VTU is that the latter I believe has a much better asset value overall, so one should not be in PDG alone.

[lovewinshatelosses] 26/5/2022 09:51

That is a very good point, microscope. The 'informality' of the approach may indeed render it outside of said restrictive window.
Happy to hold, irrespective of that prospect, for the reasons I earlier mentioned. If it happens, it happens. GLA.

[microscope] 26/5/2022 09:18

There are a couple of points there though Lwhl, firstly the Sky story in March said the approach was'several weeks ago' and secondly it has never been RNS'd.So I think we have to assume it was informal, and if that is the case I don't believe they'd have to wait six months.Still see no reason they won't try again, though the market increasingly looks like it's sceptical.However it's a bit like a steward's enquiry in racing, the longer it goes on, the more markets will move towards a different outcome to what it might have originally anticipated, based on nothing concrete either way.

[lovewinshatelosses] 26/5/2022 09:04

I think they have to wait six months after the initial bid was rejected, if they want to try again. There are some exceptions to this rule...but I cannot remember the specifics. I do not think they would apply in this instance anyway, but I may be wrong.
Ultimately, I think this is cheap at this price, even if we are currently in recession (which I think we are).
As I said before, nothing macro or company-specific is particularly better or worse than when the bid was made IMO, so if you felt it was worth (at least) 28p then, why would you feel any differently now?
Same if you felt it was overpriced then of course, etc.

[clive7878] 25/5/2022 21:49

I would have thought though now when it goes under 22p would be a good time to buy,
seeing it has been up to 25p as the support buying price appears to be 21.5p.
Hopefully PDG will move on the next set of results, Have been a bit flat since the news of the bid,
and Hedin has not come back as yet. If they were willing to pay 28p they are a lot cheaper now.
I also believe that profits this year will hold up to a degree better than some are predicting.

See a couple of dealers have had to reduce the price of cars I have been watching,
of around £500.00, so maybe things are not moving as fast as they would like.

[lovewinshatelosses] 24/5/2022 20:18

Trying to time a trade in an environment like this is probably optimistic Clive. IMO, look at it more on an investment basis, and if it gets taken out soon, all good.
If it does not, as long as you are confident in the business credentials, potentially add a few more if the share price breaks support to the downside and wait.
That is my plan here anyway, but I am equally happy to potentially hold for a fair length of time if needed - and the size of my holding is also quite small, which makes it an easier approach to adopt, of course. Each to their own strategy and good luck to us all :)

[daneswooddynamo] 24/5/2022 19:22

Big vol today

[clive7878] 24/5/2022 19:16

lovewinshatelosses - probably - I hope - is a good move.
timing is crutial, which I need to improve on.

[lovewinshatelosses] 24/5/2022 16:00

Took a few more at pretty much the exact same price as my first purchase (not the 400k of shares, which I assume was a buy!)
Exact same proposition as a few weeks ago IMO. Potential risks and potential opportunities unchanged. GLA.

[clive7878] 20/5/2022 20:58

Price drifting
.

[clive7878] 19/5/2022 18:26

Bad day at the office today.
My mistake is not buying & selling at the right time with the share price bobbing about.

[microscope] 19/5/2022 09:19

With PDG having rebuffed a bid at 28p I'm certainly not ready to sell at this stage.Very sharp drop across the whole sector this morning, yes the main market taking a bath but I suspect somebody might have put out a sell notice on the sector.PDG looks a buy if you still believe, like I do, that Hedin will be back with another offer above 28p.

[dennisbergkamp] 19/5/2022 07:04

Agreed

Dropped pdg and bought more Vtu myself

I’ll come back in pdg if it falls back to 21/22 as a trade

D

[microscope] 18/5/2022 21:49

Thanks Clive. I would caution against translating the early months to a fy total, as traditionally they are big months for the industry, and of course there are outside economic pressures.However there is no sign from any of the three that their margins are slowing down.Wouldn't be surprised if all three get upgrades in the coming months. Think PDG will match last year and VTU make maybe 10-12p epsI still believe VTU is strongest as a lock away investment, but it doesn't have the short term same likelihood of a takeover.Depends on your timeframe. I'm in PDG for short term gain, and VTU for longer term shareprice growth.

[clive7878] 18/5/2022 19:20

microscope - good work there.

With VTU are we saying annual eps of 15.96p and for 2 months March / April 5.3,
so what would the expected eps be for 2022 would one think.
And surely the net asset value after 2022 would be higher, making VTU look even better value one would think. VTU is appealing to be more and more longer term.
Another good set of figures for VTU could well move the share price.

I believe that the motor dealers are trying to up the car prices,
as the 10 cars I have been watching they are struggling to shift quickly
and they except one are all close to market value.
But even in a recession or of high inflation people still need wheels,
and with some people it is a statis symbol too.
Even if they cant afford a such car, they will still cut corners on other spending to buy one.

[microscope] 18/5/2022 15:57

Thanks Daneswood, amended think my head was exploding!!!! Also added in diluted eps now. All corrections appreciated and will be edited in of course.

[daneswooddynamo] 18/5/2022 15:53

Still expecting hedin to take this one over. lookers had net cash of 3m end year, the 40m debt was end 2020

[microscope] 18/5/2022 15:20

On back of this chat I've picked out a few significant numbers on the 3 main players in this sector primarily for my own education but thought I'd share here. Numbers are approx and incase I've made any mistakes don't take as gospel - always naturally DYOR anyway!

Lots of other variables too. And worth noting March and April are historically big earnings months.

I have not put in p/e, would need to look at broker forecasts for future p/e which I think we all know will be higher for all three as 2021 not likely to be matched in 2022, though I think they will do better than cautious brokers are predicting. (2021 was full of upgrades and all 3 have made strong starts in 2022)

PDG
1.4 Billion shares
Price 25p
Market cap: 350 million
Underlying Profit Before Tax: 83 Million
Net Assets 225 million (16p per share)
Net Debt 49.7 Million
Diluted eps 2021: 4.6p
Jan-March 2022 18.7 million PBT.
Dividend: No
Takeover Target: Yes


LOOK:
391 Million shares
Price 72p
Market Cap 282 million.
Adjusted pre tax profit 90 million to March 2022
Diluted eps 2021 15.55p
Net current assets* (liability 71 million)
Net Assets: 3 Million
Dividend: Yes
Takeover Target: Probably

VTU:
357 Million Shares
Price 55p
Market Cap 190 million
Adjusted Pre Tax Profit 80.7 million (to Feb 2022)
Diluted eps 2021: 15.96p
March/April 19.1 million trading Profit (5.3p per share)
Net assets 67p per share
Net Cash 16 million
Dividend: Yes
Takeover Target. unlikely at this stage

Motorpoint In line with management expectations for FY, but numbers not given so not included.

I'll leave this open without commentary, though all 3 look good imho, but hopefully can get discussion going.