Pelatro Share Discussion Threads

[cordwainer] 11/1/2023 00:25

I wouldn't go as far as saying scandalous, but the vaunted ARR has not gained as much traction and the business does not appear as capital light as previously hoped by many (former) shareholders. They are dealing with contracts rather than subscriptions, of max 5 years but more typically 3 years. The regional segmentals quietly nestled in the results notes indicates some volatility and unreliability in revenues and renewals from individual operators, even if they managed to build overall ARR over the past 3 years or so. It's no cash cow.
They took an interesting step into new markets with one fintech customer recently but the wider CRM / Analytics software space is a very crowded place as far as I can tell. Or someone might enlighten me as to how very differentiated mViva products are ?

[earwacks] 10/1/2023 21:30

A scandalously incompetent company. ‘Will be materially below forecasts.’

[casholaa] 10/1/2023 20:06

They appear to me to be as useful as a bucket with a hole in it. I think it's just rice now and no peas.

[gleach23] 10/1/2023 19:08

Can't argue with that cordwainer.

13.30. What a time to issue a Trading Update too. Such a poor show.

[cordwainer] 10/1/2023 15:15

So overall a possible £250K hit approx. That's not really the disappointing part, its the lack of progress on new clients and contracts. Is the previously reported opportunity 'pipeline' of $19m maybe some kind of pipe dream?
Keep a close eye on board remuneration, they should not be getting a lot of extra reward. And note that pre-existing share options are currently exercisable at 73p, although both staff and board recently helped themselves to about 7.5% of the company at the expense of the rest of us ordinary shareholders.
While they're retaining about 98 software engineers vs 3 sales people they ought to be providing some more hints of what they're actually working on right now.
A very high risk investment at this stage imho.

[volsung] 10/1/2023 15:00

Is this like peloton?

[cordwainer] 21/12/2022 14:18

Well 2nd trade of today was 11.01p .. sorry for foreshadowing 11p earlier but it's so illiquid as to be almost meaningless.

[casholaa] 16/12/2022 16:00

Should be paying them in rice and peas instead.

[cordwainer] 06/12/2022 08:18

That's quite a LOT of new shares being announced today relative to the existing number. This could be indicating some internal dissatisfaction beyond remuneration imho. Daylight robbery. I *maybe* see light at the end of the tunnel but holding on and bracing for 11p beforehand.

[gleach23] 01/12/2022 23:03

Echoing hew's thanks for your thoughts rivaldo. That was an uncomfortable read today - as you say the company is making a habit of 'slight' underperformance which is not what I have been expecting from previously successful management.

Disappointing that they weren't able to temper the poor update with some specific and positive contract news, and also disappointing that 'a small number' of clients are wanting to transfer to a license model due to 'changing economic conditions' - a direct reversion from the company's much heralded adoption of an ARR model.

[cordwainer] 01/12/2022 13:43

Probably not the first or the last time revenues have dragged over to the next period and currency hedging is easier said than done.
This appears to be strictly an accounting trading update with no apparent adjustment in the outlook that was suggested in the half-year report. So overall prospects including the diversifying foothold into financial services are otherwise undiminished. But the update is enough to kill fragile market sentiment so I feel that the forward pe of around 10 is about right for now.
The previous 2nd half trading update wasn't released until late January and it's not inconceivable that other announcements could occur in December to support future prospects.
I get the feeling their products so far are not selling themselves it's a hard and persistent push required among the telco clientele. Can't be easy being a tiddler with whale clients.
If the product range can be adapted and extended to other sectors beyond telco's it could also lead to new sales channels and partners imho. Maybe any account based consumer retailing business with a variety of offers and/or subscriptions might be fair game.
Not the growth I was hoping for since I first invested but not an unmitigated disaster either. Willing to hold but not as optimistic as Dowgate - more new contracts needed.

[hew] 01/12/2022 12:34

Rivaldo, thank you for the numbers and thoughts.

I share both your disappointment and view that the fall looks somewhat out of proportion with the financial scale of the news - as expressed that is in the RNS. (Rev approx 8% down on est 2022 of $9m with EBITDA only "slightly below market expectations".)

However comparing today's Dowgate forecasts with those included in ST's bullish mid-Sept thoughts I see considerable revisions rather than minor adjustments. Hmmmm...

My exposure is that only of a punt on ST's flag-waving so I will just hold on for better times. Thanks again.

[rivaldo] 01/12/2022 08:53

That's a poor update to say the least, though perhaps mitigated given the current global economic climate. OK, PTRO have been hard hit by the stronger dollar, but shouldn't they have had hedging in place given their exposure? At least the change request pushback to next year is only a postponement and presumably down to market conditions.

The m/cap at 13.75p is only £6.2m now, but Dowgate's new forecast this morning is for a small $0.2m LBT for this year, with $2.9m adjusted EBITDA.

Next year sees a $0.6m PBT with $3.8m EBITDA.

PTRO also have $2.6m net cash, rising to $3m next year, plus that $6m or so annual recurring income.

I'm tempted to believe PTRO are extremely cheap at these levels (I suspect the fall is overdone and was triggered by a 390,000 sell at 16p on the bell today). Especially as management have done it and succeeded previously. But the company does have a habit of regular banana skins and not quite delivering when required.

Dowgate somewhat optimistically retain their Buy and 65p price target.....

[gleach23] 09/11/2022 14:34

SP looking weak again. Can currently buy at the 20p Bid price.

About time we had some contract news to spark the share price into life -

- another fintech contract?
- an update on the POC work for the large telco which could potentially be transformative?
- new customers in the African and/or Middle East markets?

[daz] 07/10/2022 08:13

Yes, correct. Thanks Gleach

[gleach23] 06/10/2022 23:35

Daz...looking briefly at the numbers, the stepped increase in admin costs occurred in H2 21. The $2.9m for H1 22 is consistent with the $2.8m for H2 21.

From the Finals in May staff numbers increased from 166 in 2020 to 235 in 2021 (42%) so I'm assuming that would account for most of the increase in admin costs.

[daz] 06/10/2022 21:32

Has anyone noticed the 45% increase in adjusted admin expenses? (I'm not sure why they are being described as adjusted). On the face of it, they are out of control, but I can't find an explanation in the narrative.

The company haven't done a presentation for the interim results, otherwise I would have asked

[gleach23] 06/10/2022 08:28

Well with the market quote @ 21-22 one can currently sell 25k @ 22p and not even get an online quote for buying 500 shares. Time we broke out to the upside here.

[gleach23] 03/10/2022 17:18

Noteworthy trade reported after hours of 620k @ 22.8p. Looks like a buy.

[gleach23] 23/9/2022 10:48

Thanks sphere...I hadn't realised ST had tipped it today. That explains the apparent underlying demand. As you suggest, in days gone by we might have had a 3p rise on such an article.

I'm still happy to be invested here. ST's final comment -

"It’s worth noting that the group benefits from US dollar strength as 80 per cent of its cost base is in India/UK, but three quarters of annual revenue is US dollar denominated."

[sphere25] 23/9/2022 10:14

ST tips it and you get two buys here with over two hours gone into the trading day. Not alot going on over at VLG as well as alot of the others that have been tipped of late.

Remember the time people were falling over themselves to buy those tips and you could piggyback the momentum for quick trades?

What a stark contrast.

You'd wake up and be sat like an athlete on the blocks, ready to get in quick trying to beat most. The aim being clearly to maximise profits, but to also get in sharpish before the market makers closed off the marked up offer on the opening price point (and the next price points) before you got in and the price ran away.

What a stark contrast.

The market makers must wake up nowadays (well if they don't have a lie in), brew some coffee, read the papers, brew some more coffee, have a nap because the coffee wasn't brewed well enough, perhaps brew some more coffee...

What a stark contrast.

The interesting thing is that it is definitely a sign of sentiment here in the UK, showing that there has been at least some form of major washout, even if the overall bottom isn't in. I guess there are notable and educating observations to be made when we look around the market.

As for PTRO, it actually looks like they are going to hit their numbers on at least the next couple of trading updates and maybe beyond, but it doesn't strike you that those roaring bullish spirits will be coming around for a while yet.

Nobody wants to be that grim guy, but as they say...

We are where we are.

All imo
DYOR

[gleach23] 23/9/2022 09:50

Encouraging to note that, with market quote currently 22.5-24, one can only buy around 1500 shares but sell at least 36k over 23p.

Seems that demand is there and hopefully shares are in short supply too.