Pebble Beach Systems Share Discussion Threads

[arthur_lame_stocks] 10/9/2021 14:33

If they carry on at this rate I don't think there is any chance of a rights issue. I still think Kestrel will wait a couple of years and then force a trade sale of this. Anyway it's nice to see the price finally respond to the excellent results.

[p1nkfish] 09/9/2021 14:36

Volume spike interesting, to the upside, some buying in. Can't argue with debt, can't argue with money-flow either.

[p1nkfish] 09/9/2021 14:30

You get diluted if you don't take part. Debt can't be argued with but by the time addressed this could be somewhat higher in value. Given the growth potential, and rate of payback of debt, it is not a guartanteed dilution candidate. Therein lies the uncertainty as other could be put off buying. dyor etc.

[norbert colon] 09/9/2021 14:07

Some good debate on the Stockopedia SCVR today:https://app.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-thu-9-sep-2021-peb-g-4-m-stvg-cnks-look-nwor-863464?order=createdAt&sort=desc&mode=unthreaded

[p1nkfish] 09/9/2021 09:21

Melton John, do your research. Look at the target market and their critical needs. Compare apples-apples, then comment. Best of all, don't buy but pop back in 2 years or so and take a look.

[melton john] 09/9/2021 08:45

Hi pinkfish, "who would you call?". How about Roku, they sell a £25 ish media player to plug into your TV, stream some free content and offer a subscription streaming service too. Somebody is writing software to enable all this, I don't see PEB as a competitor. I only watch on demand on-line TV these days and ROKU connect to all the on demand channels. I don't see a big share of IP TV that isn't already catered for by present incumbents. It's not as if nobody else has thought of it. This seems to be a "find a bigger fool to sell it to" share looking at the price history graph.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 08/9/2021 15:30

There is a new broker note out from Finncap. They are sticking to their forecast of 1.0p eps this year which I would have thought was surely too low given the first half performance and the outlook statement. They maintain a 20p price target.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 08/9/2021 14:16

I must say i'm delighted with the results which were better than I had hoped but disappointed with the muted share price reaction. I know the balance sheet is still weak but at the end of next year net debt should be down to around 1*ebitda and it it no fault of the company's that they are in the financial position they are. I'll contuinue to hold and at this stage would be very surprised not to get back at least 20p a share in a reasonable timeframe.

[p1nkfish] 08/9/2021 13:15

Content matters but by 2030, one way or another, delivery will largely be via IP and remote management as a given. If you want box ready ability to launch and stream media on an all IP network, with remote management, who would you call?

[drdre] 08/9/2021 12:23

Thank you all for your replies. This is what makes BBs really good. I think I am almost convinced to start a small position here.

[p1nkfish] 08/9/2021 09:39

Oh - as tft has highlighted - they have decent cash generation for a small company. Would make a really useful acquisition but I don't see that at this level, it would be blocked until a great deal more value shows itself.

[p1nkfish] 08/9/2021 09:37

Don't take my word for it but........ 1) By 2030 all media broadcast is expected to be IP, replacing DVB etc. Big opportunity. 2) Currently PEB services a smal niche of a global $50Bn market. The market will move (see 1) above) and PEB have opportunity to service other areas too. They are disruptive - in the sense they can make life easier and cheaper. See slide 13 as example on Presentation PDF - Https://pebbleplc.com/ There is risk but a few things are coming together that make PEB look well placed and the R&D necessary and can really catapult them. dyor, take care etc.

[thirty fifty twenty] 08/9/2021 09:27

hi Dr Dre the big factor for me was the CASH generation over the years. they were lumbered with 12m from vislink and by year end it is c.6m. so that is c.1m per year of CASH reduction. the company itself shows that PLC costs are £1m p.a. so the underlying business generates 2m of free CASH flow a year!! debt appears high now but let time pass and in 2 years it will be a more normal ratio of ebitda and then the shares wil likely be on a more normal rating for an IT software company (20times eps?) = 30p. on top of that, the business is about to under go growth due to global changes in media platforms, and then the appointment of David Dewhurst (ex FD at NFC) , with Kestrel on the board and 30% shareholder, it is not too hard to work out that they will either add acquisitions, or sell off the core business. either way to me, it seems that there is reasonable value, and then the prospects of corporate activity all giving extra upside all IMHO, DYOR + BoL PEB is in my top5

[drdre] 08/9/2021 09:05

I guess my only other question - and I will do some digging - what is the target addressable market here? Revenue has been bouncing around 10m for 5 years or so. What is the catalyst to buck that trend? I am really interested in starting a position here but I am challenging myself on the reasons why I should.

[drdre] 08/9/2021 09:02

Thanks Norbert, appreciate the reply.

[p1nkfish] 08/9/2021 08:49

Move to all-IP and remote operations is good. Sounds a strange thing to mention but I think both moves will increase resiliency for customers (and PEB) and that could be a big selling point going forward. Not enough is made of resilience as a feature but it will become increasing important imho. All in, quite pleased to read these results.

[norbert colon] 08/9/2021 08:40

Legacy debt from when PEB were part of Vislink

[drdre] 08/9/2021 08:31

Very good HY results. However, debt was still £8m (repaid £0.5m) and they were using all of the available banking facilities. Net debt was down £1m due to increased cash. This is obviously in the right direction but still highly geared for a company with a cap of £12m? I will keep watching this with interest - EPS was 0.8p. So looking at 1.6p or more for the FY. Broker forecasts from stockopedia have 1.5p this year, 1.6p next year. Looks very Cheap P/E wise but the debt is more than 3/4 of the cap. That is the only thing putting me off. I also dont know the history of the debt accrual - can anyone shed any light?

[jim208] 08/9/2021 08:26

Fully agree, Net debt down more than I had expected and rapidly diminishing as an issue impeding growth. As opportunities for industry events and face-to-face selling start to re-emerge, I too see a butterfly emerging.

[p1nkfish] 08/9/2021 08:01

Some inventory increase too where hardware needed, makes sense and good to see some planning around current constraints. Debt being eroded too. A butterly will break forth, in time.

[p1nkfish] 06/9/2021 11:11

Research spend might account for it for future growth.

[arthur_lame_stocks] 06/9/2021 10:14

The broker has pencilled in 1p earnings this year and presumably they have been given a steer by the company but personally I was hoping for a bit better after that large rise in the order book from last year. Not long to wait to find out.

[packman8] 03/9/2021 13:56

Interim results due 8/9. Trading update was positive, so hopefully results should be same

[charlie] 31/8/2021 13:11

Clairfield International may be a bona fide firm. But you're probably not talking to them, because their website says this: Clairfield International is not engaged in the trading of stocks and does not contact individuals regarding their stock portfolio or personal financial information. If you are an individual who has been contacted by someone claiming to be from Clairfield International regarding the sale of stocks and signing an NDA, disregard the message and block the sender. You may wish to contact your local authorities. hTTp://www.clairfield.com/en/contact/