Pebble Beach Systems Share Discussion Threads

[thirty fifty twenty] 04/2/2020 13:16

sorry Melton John - you are filtered for me as posts not adding value to my analysis.

Kestrel is indeed a partnership fund so they are investing their own money,
regardless it is slightly unusual that a fund would keep buying to such levels without a good insight into the company and business sector.

Also directors bought c.600k of shares in Oct/Nov 2019 for 7p.

PEB is not without risks, but I spend a lot of time looking at a lot of companies before making an investment and PEB at 8p or lower offers a very good risk / reward situation for my investing strategy.

All IMHO, DYOR + BoL
PEB is in my top5 hldg

[melton john] 04/2/2020 12:47

Sorry to interrupt your obvious attempts to pump and dump 'fish by asking questions. When I want your opinion I ask. If you know so much you might like to follow the example of the previous poster and post something informative. I doubt you have the intellect.

[p1nkfish] 04/2/2020 12:05

Kestrel - the directors hold a ton of their own fund. Dyor.

[melton john] 04/2/2020 11:12

An interesting read, which makes it a hold from your point of view. If I had the time to pick at the accounts and learn about their business model, I might change my mind and see further upside. Unfortunately due to family commitments I don't. I can only go on year on year comparatives from a site I use which show lumpy revenue and a tiny increase in positive cash flow. Talk of ebitda increase to me personally is a red flag signaling accounting smoke and mirrors. Good luck to you, I'll look in occasionally to see if the next accounts clarify the view and I'll watch for a significant director purchase, that would impress me more than a fund spending other peoples money. Cynical, who me?

[p1nkfish] 04/2/2020 09:48

tft, totally agree.

Dont bother posting research for the likes of MeltonJ. Wasted effort.

Best if he just goes away. Time waster and cant be bother to look beyond the obvious. Too many of those around. PEB doesn't need them.

[thirty fifty twenty] 04/2/2020 08:51

always interesting to hear other view points !
for me the debt is an opportunity because it gears the equity.
in the last 3 years , whilst funding a growing business debt has reduced from c.12m to 8.4m (I think they also had to pay a left over creditor of 400k from Vislink deal). Over this time they also paid more than 1m of interest charges. So the business , over 3 years , has produced about 4.5m of CASH flow whilst also supporting the growth in turnover.

That is on average 1.5m a year but the business is definitely making more profit now than then. The number of employees has been cut from c.150 to c.65 in those 3 years. If you read the published interims, not just the RNS, there are some very positive words about the spending in the media industry - i.e. they see growth ahead.

I also note that from the very start the banks have been supportive. Why would they be so supportive unless they also knew that PEB had a good mgt team and where operating in a growth industry. They have made their business much leaner and ready to grow - thus I think that it is capable to reduce debt by c.2m in the year ahead (on ebitdda of c.4m) so in 12 mths time I see that there is the possibility of ebitda of 4m and debt of 6m - actually a pretty normal ratio.

and lastly for me - why does one think kestrel have been steadily buying.... they have been buying steadily for 3 years. firstly at 3p, then 4, then 5p all the way and then they buy before and after the trading statement …. they are obviously very knowledgeable about the business and its potential and I think if they thought the banks were going to require some extra equity they would hold off and buy shares in the placing not in the market.

in my view the equity has a lot further to run (this is supported by the head and shoulder bottom chart pattern, and the strongly rising 200d)

all IMHO, DYOR + BoL
PEB is in my top5 hldg

[p1nkfish] 03/2/2020 18:58

Or they get sold.

[melton john] 03/2/2020 18:05

Sooty, I don't understand where you think I was being sarcastic. Just posting some facts to back up my opinion that they will sell more shares to clear the debt. At the present rate it could be 8 years.

[p1nkfish] 03/2/2020 16:14

Melton, I might be on the side that funds their raise. :-)

[sooty snipes] 03/2/2020 16:07

I've been keeping an eye on this for a while. I took out a small position last week at 7p. Pebble Beach was a great little company before Hawkins got his grubby little paws on it. I'm impressed with the last set of results and also by the way they are getting the dreadful debt down that they were saddled with from the Vislink debacle. Two nice recent director buys and I see Kestrel has built an even bigger position in the company. John why the sarcasm? No need for it everyone should be entitled to an opinion. PS Reading your other posts. You took my mind back to collecting pop bottles and rushing back to the corner shop with them. Tizer, Jusoda and Corona before it became a virus ha ha ha. PS do you miss those old threepenny bits? I do...........Good luck Sooty

[melton john] 03/2/2020 15:40

I prefer companies that make money. Good luck to you too but don't forget to sell before the fundraising.

[p1nkfish] 03/2/2020 13:37

I stick with my own work on this.
Good luck.

Study the dynamics of their end market too. Enjoy learning.

[melton john] 03/2/2020 12:20

It appears that you need to do further research, prior to divesting Visilink from the group, accounts were shown as two separate companies within the group. You have to keep separate accounts if you intend to sell part of a group. The figures I've shown are for the Pebble Beach subsidiary only. You can go back to published accounts in 2016 for the preceding year if you don't believe me. Off you go now.

[p1nkfish] 03/2/2020 10:40

Dont buy, please go away or at least do some basic research.
Divested h/w Feb 2017. Big change. Comparisons before divest and name change mean nowt.

[melton john] 03/2/2020 09:47

Would that divesting have happened in 2014 perhaps, the comparison of other following years seems fair. The issue now is does one swallow make a summer, ie one good year or have the company changed. Too risky for me.
2014 revenue 61.9
2015 10.9
2016 10.9
2017 10.3
2018 9.17
2019 11.0 ish

[p1nkfish] 03/2/2020 09:32

Became a different company when they divested other section. Comparisons dont work.

[melton john] 03/2/2020 08:59

I've tried to get excited like the board but last 5 years of almost flat income and large debt doesn't do it for me. Canaccord selling 5M shares makes me wonder about a fund raiser in the offing. Pump the price up and issue more shares??

[modform] 30/1/2020 11:26

Remember this is on a PER of 6 with debt being paid off, it should rerate imo

[ileeman] 30/1/2020 08:25

"The Board is excited about our future and looks forward to providing a further update in our audited results for the year ended 31 December 2019 which will be announced in late March 2020."

[cfro] 30/1/2020 08:11

Good update and bullish outlook statement.

Revenues of £11.2m and EBITDA of £3.5m. I work out the basic eps to be about 10.5p, hence PER is only 6.5.

[ileeman] 30/1/2020 08:04

Looks like turn around going full steam ahead, a buying op at this market cap.

[p1nkfish] 30/1/2020 07:28

Well debt is falling and expect 《 2x EBITDA to be reached this year, good chance in next 6 months. Good TU, positive.

[interceptor2] 03/1/2020 16:06

Good to see you here modform, I first bought in here in September after the interims and have also topped up recently but only slowly due to the illiquid nature of the shares.

I think this could be a genuine turnaround situation and if the improvement continues and debt continues to fall then the valuation looks rather cheap.

[modform] 02/1/2020 20:59

I have been buying here in the past few weeks to build an initial holding due to poor liquidity. We need to see if turn around is taking shape but it looks cheap on fundamentals considering the growth achieved in the first half.