Paysafe Share Discussion Threads

[reddave999] 04/7/2016 13:43

Looking at the economic outlook I'm sure there will be plenty of opportunity to buy at 340

[maloneyt] 04/7/2016 13:25

I am a buyer if it goes back down to 340

[wildchild] 04/7/2016 13:20

I'm still here waiting to buy. My timing generally has been disastrous this year on everything. Probably the worst since 2001 ! Hope I don't mess things up for anyone else when I buy.

[melf] 04/7/2016 12:25

Yes, I suspect this is the pre trading update soak up!

[rampmeister] 04/7/2016 12:16

Looks like usual shake which is normal precursor to major uplift
RM

[wolfhound1] 04/7/2016 01:19

I estimate that based on those numbers and PAYS picking up 1% for processing payments - then you are comfortably looking at $1bn of revenue - multiples of that where we offer additional risk management services. At least 75% of which should go straight to the bottom line as we already have the factory built.

No wonder share price back in 2006 was £8/£9 - and we have moved on along way since then.

[nurdin] 03/7/2016 11:01

I dont think any of the brokers covering the stock have factored in the tide of change taking place in the US.Upgrades will come thick and fast imo as state by state vote to legalise on line gambling.

Earnings growth will outpace pe ratios significantly going forward imo

[wolfhound1] 02/7/2016 17:40

Thanks ProperC - I agree very limited upside priced into the stock - probably explains why every time we hear/read good news the share price rockets north. So patience is the key for big gains on this stock - I think it is just a matter of time before it rockets or gets an approach.

Certainly the momentum in the US for on-line gambling seems to be gathering speed with the passing of each week - put simply the level of US "illegal" gambling is just so huge that states and Governors whose budgets are under pressure need new revenue streams so they need to target the black economy.

Now US mayors are also jumping on the bandwagon - so I think 2016 might just be the year - the attached story highlights just how big an opportunity the black economy of illegal betting is - and the US states want their share of the pot - me thinks it won't stay illegal for long.

hxxp://www.legalsportsreport.com/10633/mayors-call-for-legal-sports-betting/

[propercharlie] 02/7/2016 09:27

Melf and Wolf thanks for your responses. It certainly looks very positive and set to move. Edison did a revised following TU. with eps 2016 36.5 and 2017 41.1c respectively.
This was before Brexit impact on £/$ rate with its 7.5% depreciation.
using current exchange rate 2016 is £0.26 and 2017 £0.30.
Stockopedia reports brokers estimate consensus at $0.39 higher than Edison.

either way a share price of 380p is not challenging. low end estimate pe is 14 top end 12 on 2016 earnings.

On 2017, Edison only estimate an revenue increase of 10%, and an EPS of $0.41 isn't this very conservative and stunts growth with only 12% year on year. Maybe this is why we are at PE of 12.


INVESTMENT SUMMARY

Paysafe Group’s AGM trading update confirms that business has been robust year to date, with Payment Processing and Digital Wallets showing particularly strong performance. Management expects to generate FY16 revenues and EBITDA ahead of market expectations. We have upgraded our forecasts to reflect stronger trading, resulting in EPS upgrades of 5.0% for FY16e and 7.7% for FY17e.

Last updated on 02/06/2016

[trentendboy] 02/7/2016 08:45

GVC news important. They are selling off the cash processor kalixia. PAY should snap it up imo

[wolfhound1] 01/7/2016 17:04

indeed Melf

- add in Mich with 10mn and you have 89m or approx. 25% of the entire US population and probably about 75% of the wealth of America ( significant increase on the 13m in nev;nj and del where on-line gambling is already legal)

- and PAYS is in pole position as the only real contender to support the processing of on-line gambling payments in this space

- yeeee hawwwww !!

[reddave999] 01/7/2016 16:24

£10 by end of month i reckon

[jarega85] 01/7/2016 16:11

I hope the all play poker!

[melf] 01/7/2016 16:00

Agreed Wolf - state populations:

California 38M
New York 20M
Pennsylvania 13M

[wolfhound1] 01/7/2016 15:48

If the current 4 US states (each a mini country in its own right)approve online gambling in the near term then expect not only a large increase in revenues/profits but also a disappearance of the discounted PE ratio applied to PAYS share price - regulated revenues are so much more acceptable - this will give a double whammy impact to the share price - it will rocket and the discounted PE ratios will disappear pronto

[melf] 01/7/2016 15:31

PC see below. However, since this report the 2016 expected Revenue and EBITDA have been revised up in the last trading statement as you mention.

[propercharlie] 01/7/2016 15:19

does anyone have any analyst report on expected earnings.

in stockopedia it is 2016 $0.39 moving to 2017 $0.45
If the trading statement in May said:

"Paysafe expects full year adjusted EBITDA(2) to be in the range of $270m - $276m, compared to market consensus of $260m(1)."

Then I would expect a 57% increase in earning over the adjusted from 2015. 2015 was $0.26, so that would make it $0.41 with current exchange rate £0.30. If so we are on a very modest PE of 12, with a company growing at 30-60% earnings. So a PEG of 12/50 of 0.23. or 12/40 = 0.3 PEG

any thoughts?

[wolfhound1] 01/7/2016 14:14

and to add to that thought of a trading update has been the large director buys - these results are likely to be v positive - so we can expect a gap up as happened in end of May and probably even stronger - due to Euros.

In terms of M&A activity in this sector - here is a link to a view from 18 months ago just ahead of PayPal spin-out.

Since then there is the rumour of Alipay buying a potential 25% stake in Wirecard and news that Visa ( having now completed acqn of Visa Europe) might now be looking to take on PayPal and on the acquisition trail.

All argues v well for PAYS share price in the near to medium term !! GLA

[ihatemms] 01/7/2016 13:00

WC -The interims will be on 10th August. There was 6 mth trading statmt last yr. - no reason why there shouldn't be one this year in early July - maybe even Monday/Tuesday nxt week.

[wildchild] 01/7/2016 12:55

EH9 : I'm confused why you think the next trading statement is next week as Paysafes 24th May RNS said next trading statement is 10th August.

[qs99] 01/7/2016 11:52

that Barclays broker reiteration IMO is a good statement of intent...happy to continue holding (and ok bought a few more Friday)

[lomax99] 01/7/2016 11:43

Not sure if it is worth getting excited about PA until we are actually over the line - it still needs to pass both the state senate and the governor..... Onlinepokerreport.com comment that 'passage is far from assured'.

[trentendboy] 01/7/2016 11:38

1-0 after extra time

[heliweli] 01/7/2016 11:36

What was the result last night in Pennsylvania.