Paysafe Share Discussion Threads

[stuart37] 17/3/2016 16:32

by look of charts could potentially get to £4.45/£4.50 before pulling back

[fourgirls] 17/3/2016 16:26

Its a 'breakout another bottle of Merlot'.and by the way well said Wolfhound 1.Wonder how the shorters and bottlers are doing?Great company,great times ahead.No im not a ramper just say what I see.

[mandeep share] 17/3/2016 16:12

Would this be considered as a breakout? Seen as previous share price would struggle past 412-416

[wolfhound1] 17/3/2016 15:09

Patsy - no pun in the name there.....lol

why have you not taken it upon yourself to inform us all with your own analysis of the accounts..( most on this board have made some really great profits with PAYS) .. or were you looking for someone else to do the heavy lifting for you ?

One word of caution about focusing on accounts....bit like driving and looking in the rear view mirror...important to check every so often but it is ahead you should be looking.... so lets do that :

* Sector expected to produce double digit growth into the next decade
* De-risking : single asian client contribution further diluted
* New channels : tie -up with playstation and WPG to capture more gaming
* growing verticles - increasing synergies on Skrill
* Write-off of Intangibles and Depn charge - so greater net profit growth in future years
* NY and California moving closer to legislating online poker
* growing revenues at 13% p.a. organically
* Cash profits are in line for £250mn p.a. in 2016 ( EBITDA) - so debt could be paid off comfortably inside 2 years - in fact it is already below the level of the acquisition of Skrill

So in two/three years PAYS could have written down intangibles in Skrill; paid down all its debt and possibly acquired an additional busineess and grown revenues by 25-50%+..........all things being equal

* 2018 Onwards potential for EBITDA = Net profits if intangiles written off and debt paid down full so could easily have zero debt and £250m + profits

* Now apply the sector wide PE ratio of 27 * £250m earnings will give a market value = £6.75bn = £14 a share ( 3 times greater than today) ...hope you find another share out there that will give you a better return...but I doubt it.

Napolean and Fourgirls have in my view the right approach... fine a growth stock and assess progress periodically and unless you have the skill and spare time to trade it , just sit on it and watch it grow.... happy days.

GLA

[high park] 17/3/2016 12:56

I got into Netteller about ten years ago, and still trying to catch up.

[napoleon 14th] 17/3/2016 12:33

I'm up 140% on PAYS, so anyone posting negs & why they're out are most wellcome to.
Doesn't bother me, but then I started getting in on OPAY in 2012.
That, IMO, is how to do it.

P.S. I haven't sold a singles share....yet.

[the juggler] 17/3/2016 11:15

Sweyn I completely agree with you. This is a great prospect and of course like all companies it will have its ups and downs. One has to get in for the long haul, the story is good and I see no reason except for "making a quick buck" to be selling now. This will mature nicely and one day we will be getting dividends too. Patience is what is needed here. Good luck to all holders!

[sweyn] 17/3/2016 11:03

I really don't understand the people who keep saying they "are out" at this point.
The big risk was the possibility of something nasty in the annual report. To leave after that but before the uptick in price seems like the worst of both worlds?

[nurdin] 17/3/2016 11:01

Anyone have brokers estimates for the current year and the next please? I have drawn a blank.

TIA

[stuart37] 17/3/2016 10:36

I notice that we may be seeing some rotation out of WPG and into the likes of PAYS. WPG were down 4 or so yesterday and down another 8 today. Maybe investors are realising that the WPG model is too skewed towards hardware whereas the major growth is really in digital payments. Just a thought.........

[trentendboy] 17/3/2016 10:31

Impressive little falsh crash there - can kill those with spreadbets and tight stops. Disgraceful really but nice recovery

[aspex] 17/3/2016 09:11

Confirmation needed but as I recall PAYS goes into the 250 index at about 164 (64 of 250 after allowing for ftse100) which means the index funds have to buy a lot of share (even if the number is just proportionate to the total issued number)

[malcolmmm] 17/3/2016 09:02

Holding up well so far despite the profit takers and shorters. Difficult to decide whether to top up or wait for a pull back which may not happen

[high park] 17/3/2016 08:43

Worrying words, Pastybap.
Can you mention any shares you've bought, that weren't a mistake?

[whymps2] 17/3/2016 08:41

Paysafe : *BERENBERG RAISES PAYSAFE PRICE TARGET TO 477 (444) PENCE - 'BUY'

[jarega85] 17/3/2016 08:34

Seems like we need to try and breakthrough that 420p upper resistence

[eh9] 17/3/2016 08:12

Short of a brain cell or two! I have never followed a company with a more honest and transparent and detailed CFo - listed to the analyst recording and you can see this is Paul boulangerie and no Greggs baps

[stuart37] 17/3/2016 07:47

"short on depth and quality" - hmmmmm

[opodio] 17/3/2016 07:16

rocket time

[ralphmalph] 17/3/2016 07:11

@pastybap - if the share price is at an all time high, how can you have made a mistake investing here? If you bought shares you could not have failed to make a profit, which is the whole point of investing.

[pastybap] 17/3/2016 03:38

I'm out.

Reasons?

1. This board is full of over-excitables, which is often the biggest off-putting factor for an investment imo. Not one person on this board has made any detailed comment on the financials today!!

2. The year-end- results were full of hype and positive spin, but short on depth and quality.

3.Most growth was through acquisition, and not organic.

4. Massive increase in debt. Yes, a result of a transformative acquisition, but significant new risk.

5. Only companies that grow organically deserve a "growth rating". PAYS have grown through acquisition rather than organically, and should therefore be on a PE of approx 11/12. Therefore the share price should be closer to $0.26= 18.5p * 12 = £2.28. I'll offer a little bit of growth premium and give fair value at £3.00, and accept I made a mistake ever investing here.

I expect some grumbling about my comment, but considering nobody has even shown the capability to review the accounts on here (barely even a comment pre-8pm) I will most likely laugh in your face if you can't offer a reasoned argument.

[trentendboy] 16/3/2016 17:28

Boom although annoying my long spreadbet can auto settled at 8.30 this morning - worst possible time. One more day would have made a big difference.

[bwana4] 16/3/2016 17:08

Well put Fourgirls and EH9.
There is no gain without pain. I am holding 50% of my portfolio in PAYS. It is a long term investment for me. It may fall back a bit, it has done so many a time, it always comes back good. I think the results are good. This will continue to grow. DYOR.
ATB to all.

[eh9] 16/3/2016 16:51

It looks to me that skrill is in fact growing almost as fast as neteller. Paysafe card was held back by decision to close ucash brand. Applying 14-16% run rate to h2 proforma revenues takes you overall to analysts forecasts for 2017 achievable in 2016 which is what I have been saying since last autumn. IMO they will do a clever jv with a big brand/mobile telco to leverage their platform big time and eventually merge with a larger player....very good chance to treble your money if you hold tight for two years

[ralphmalph] 16/3/2016 16:42

I have had a look at the presentation and my take is:

1) the reduction in profit after tax is because of amortisation of capital costs i.e software and they are also amortising the fair market value that they applied to the intangible assets of Skrill that they applied for the aquisition. refered to as the PPA (purchase price amortisation) in the pres

2) The skrill business seems to have been mostly digital wallets and pre-paid cards with a small if any payment processing business. The majority of this business seems to have been in Europe.

3) The original Neteller business payments processing mainly in america and far east is still growing very strongly.

4) the worry seems to be that the Skrill business is not growing strongly i.e digital wallets and pre-paid. This could be because it is mainly in the economic basket case that is main land Europe (socialist zone).

5) having said that digital wallets are very profitable.

The challenge for the future seems to be to get the Skrill business growing, hopefully with the original Neteller payments processing business in the USA can be used to leverage new sales in digital wallets and pre-paid.


If not it seems to me that the profit growth will decline as the original Neteller business is carrying the Skrill business, could just get rid of the Skrill cost base in this case and use the increased profits to fund the growth of payment processing.