4*
PayPoint plc issued a quarterly trading update reporting another positive quarter with strong performance from key seasonal businesses. The Group remains on track to deliver expectations for FY25 and a further step has been made in achieving £100m EBITDA by the end of FY26. Group net revenue increased by 1.9% to £53.0 million (Q3 FY24: £52.0 million), driven by a positive performance in the quarter by the E-commerce and Love2shop divisions. Profit numbers...
...from WealthOracle
wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/PAY/1182 |
joe.brent@panmureliberum.com Joe Walker Research Analyst Joe.Walker@panmureliberum.com
Q3 statement guides to trading in line with expectations, with 1.9% net revenue growth. The business is on track for £100m of EBITDA in FY 26, and we maintain our earnings and cash estimates. Looking at the 4 divisions: 1) At Payments and Banking, revenue increased by 0.8% with strength in digital and the contribution from obconnect, and despite weakness in cash payments; 2) At Shopping, the PayPoint network continues to grow, but consumer spending has impacted card volumes; 3) At Parcels there was 32% net revenue growth and there is huge growth potential from the Royal Mail partnership, and Chinese e-tailers and networks; and 4) At Love2shop, the increase in billings is a positive lead indicator. PayPoint’s position on the high street differentiates it in the crowded payment space; a CY 25 P/E of 9.6x and ordinary yield of 5.6% are too cheap. Target price £11 |
Solid update, at the current price the shares are valued at a PER of 10 with a yield of 5.5%.
"As we continue towards delivering £100m EBITDA by the end of FY26, our confidence in our business resilience and growth is underpinned by the breadth of opportunities across all of our divisions and maintaining the right organisational structure and cost base to support the delivery of our growth plans.” Nick Wiles, CEO. |
Quick glance amd looks solid, with growth across the group as a whole
Debt to decrease by end Q1 2025
On track and no alarm bells |
Nice pick up before results on low volume which suggests someone knows something. Anything under 7gbp to me is cheap as chips. I'm expecting 11 gbp this year markets being well |
We seem to be going upwards ! |
Bounce looked weak, its clinging onto the MA200 but i think its got further down side. They seem to go from one problem to the next |
The trading update will be interesting
Tight conditions flagged in last update and Yodel shenanigans might be noted.
But the share price might have bottomed.
Anyone with thoughts, pls ? |
I took a very small position at the 200 and closed again after 5%. Only small but i decided you got to trade your convictions. I know a lot here are long term as am i but i dont believe in blindly holding when it had such a good run and was clearly very overbought. I’ll re enter when it provides an entry worthwhile doing so |
A Q3 trading update is due on Wednesday 29th January. |
Looking for rentry point having sold down in recent weeks, was quite disappointed |
Come on, I am a bottom up value investor. PAY is a long term hold for me. Contrarians and long-term holders do well in this market. |
Not an investment at the moment though, I sold all. Made 80% profit but as you say this will go on for ages so theres better alternatives. Will watch for small re-entry below 600 but really looking for below 500-550 to be worth while. It might bounce about now off its MA200 given its very oversold as well but there’s not enough potential in it at this level |
It’s not material so no comment. Most uk shares are in the tank atm. |
Well, it's nothing to do with them at the moment. Pay are just are just a strategic "investor".This will take time to sort out. Thankfully PAY only stand to lose some investment capital of it all goes wrong. |
Poor that management have not issued any statement re yodel |
A Q3 trading update for the period ending December 31st is due on January 29th. |
Hopefully heading back up over 800 here as post Christmas results loom. Should see meaningful contributions from Love2Shop and Park Chriatmas savings.....Will be close to 100m EBITDA this year i reckon and a trading announcement is due at end of Jan and Feb with final results in June. |
 Paypoint
PayPoint shares have more than doubled in the past 18 months, touching their highest for nearly five years and stopping just shy of 850p. Since the middle of last month the chart has failed three times to break 850p, often a signal a share is heading downwards, and on Tuesday slipped below 800p. At the least, stale shareholders are exiting. But that may create buying opportunities.
This Spanish-controlled business has several moving parts. It mainly offers payment systems for retailers and government departments such as hospitals and universities, particularly for the unbanked. Its fortunes are therefore strongly linked to consumer and public spending, both of which are expected to be on the up in the next few years. The bill-paying and cash machine operations are in long-term decline in the face of digital payments, but parcels are expanding. Its PayPoint One retail terminal handles sales while checking and managing stock in nearly 30,000 outlets. The chief executive, Nicholas Wiles, admitted last month that consumer confidence and spending was not as strong as he would have liked, but claimed the business was well positioned to deliver further revenue growth in the second half. Meanwhile it generates strong cashflow to invest, buy back shares and grow the dividend.
For the half-year to September 30, net revenue was up from £79.8m to £84.6m. Underlying ebitda was £6.4m higher at £37.5m, and £5.1m of the increase came from higher underlying profitability. Diluted underlying earnings per share rose from 22.1p to 27.4p. Ecommerce business was the main driver, increasing 56.9% to £8m. This month Lloyds Banking Group became PayPoint’s main payments processor for its local cash banking network. Wiles sees that deal as key to the future. Jefferies analysts believe the group can make £91m of earnings before deductions this year and £100m the year after. That would take the price-earnings ratio below ten and underpin the current 2.3% dividend yield. But the share overhang is a short-term concern.
Advice: Hold
NB: Their dividend yield figure is wrong - at todays shareprice of 776.5p the dividend is 5.0%. |
https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/09/09/is-this-the-best-uk-stock-to-buy-with-2000-in-september/2 months old but still worth a read.With the Obconnect contributions and higher revenue H2, PAY could come close to 100m EBITDA by 2025 year end.What price PAY with 100m EBITDA and less shares in circulation due to the buyback? |
Panmure Liberum-
The H1 25 results were strong and we left our earnings estimates unchanged. We make six key points: 1) At H1 25, there was revenue growth of 6% and FD EPS increased 24%; 2) The FY 26 target of £100m EBITDA looks possible and the company has highlighted seven key building blocks for sustained growth; 3) A well-executed M&A strategy over the past four years has reshaped and repositioned the group into more exciting markets; 4) PayPoint is expanding its addressable universe and the growth business lines could be >80% of group net revenue in FY 26; 5) There is a large and underappreciated opportunity in Open Banking; and 6) FY 25 net debt/EBITDA of 1.2x and strong cash flow generation gives management cash allocation options, such as investing for organic growth, more dividends or buybacks. A CY 25 P/E of 11.2x and dividend yield of 4.8% are attractive. Key points Net revenue growth of 6.0% with notable strength at Parcels. Underlying FD EPS increased 24%. PayPoint has increased the number of sites and improved its offering. Value drivers 250m+ parcels achievable in 2-3 yrs Partnership with Lloyds & Royal Mail. Potential news on neobanking. Strong balance sheet gives options. What market misses £100m of EBITDA in FY26 is very achievable. Lloyds deal is transformational. 7% organic growth in H1 at L2S. Very high drop-through margin. Is there value? DCF suggests £11 per share. Div yield 4.8% and CY 25 PE 11.2x. £20m buyback provides technical support and we expect to see more. share price performance ignores distributions. |
XD today for the Q3 dividend of 9.7p payable on 20 December. |
Bought more.
Overweight, but relaxed (the portfolio, not the physique) |
Exactly what i said last week. I sold 20% on precisely the premise you shouldnt expect any earnings surprises.
The buyback program is going to support the share price though, it will creep back up especially as it runs up to the ex-div date. Then expect the same again. |
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