Paragon Banking Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 22/11/2012 07:34

Ta yupawise.

I really wonder what Numis are at lately - they seem to go out on a limb on a number of stocks and totally out of wack with other brokers.

Either vary contraian or a sceptic might say they had other reasons for trying to knock the stocks they do.

I'm well happy to hold here and add yesterday - the big divi hike and the co outlook yesterday looks excellent to me imo.

CR

[matt123d] 22/11/2012 07:20

Target raised to 295p from 260p at HSBC.

[yupawiese2010] 21/11/2012 22:44

CR. This is why Numis have a sell on the stock.

Numis analyst James Hamilton has a "sell" recommendation on the stock. He said impairment charges could increase significantly when interest rates eventually start rising.

For myself im more than happy to hold, like yourself.

[the drewster] 21/11/2012 15:31

It had fallen from 200 to 140 at which point I said I thought it could rise!

Also stated bull case at 175.

Stated bear case at results (price off 20p since the highs and unlike you, I suspect further to fall short term)

I even had the courtesy to wish you good luck if you were playing long - which I will repeat publicly here and now.

[cockneyrebel] 21/11/2012 15:14

"Blimey, not like me to be bullish about old PAG" you said it Drewster :-)

A positive close today?

Lovely intraday bounce going on.

CR

[the drewster] 21/11/2012 14:17

I dispute that claim CR - I have never been a big fan of this management team (still living the high life off the foundations laid by JP)

The Drewster
18 Aug'11 - 09:26 - 1929 of xxxx

At around 450m Market Cap, take out free cash of over 180m (based on half yearly announcement) and profits almost certain to be over £80m for the full year, and they are beginning to look temptingly cheap!
Final dividend likely to be around 2p on top of the share price recovery in due course.

Blimey, not like me to be bullish about old PAG.

On the downside, the leaky nature (historically) of the share does make you wonder if there is anything more to the fall than the general market doom and gloom.
[price 140p]

The Drewster
31 Aug'11 - 15:10 - 1946 of xxxx

Inverse head and shoulders could see this test 200 again quite quickly.

Alternatively, a failed back test of 155 could easily confirm the downtrend.

Fascinating watching, wish I had bought a few though!
[price 150p]

The Drewster
3 Jan'12 - 10:32 - 1974 of xxxx

Not particularly inspiring results from their tips last year - the worst showed a loss of 82.6% against the price when it was tipped.

I think Paragon should be a solid if unspectacular buy, I just have a problem where the rewards for the management team seem so out of line with those enjoyed (!!) by the shareholders.
[price when posted 175p]

The Drewster
19 Sep'12 - 09:52 - 1990 of xxxx

I guess a bounce off 200p would be a positive sign and set it up, temporarily at least, as a new support
[it did hold, hence bullish]

[cockneyrebel] 21/11/2012 13:41

You have been bearish for the last two years Drewster.

Jeffries an UBS both say buy and raise their targets today.

Bouncing off that trendline.

CR

[the drewster] 21/11/2012 11:58

CR re 2046 - I think you will find I was bearish on the recent high (and not alone).

[uhound] 21/11/2012 11:27

I agree this could be a good entry point again.

Level 2 looks healthy.

Buy to let stating to wake up again.

[cockneyrebel] 21/11/2012 10:28

Gift horses come to mind - great chart buy level imo:



Everyone's bullish on the highs and bearish on the lows imo.

[sat69] 21/11/2012 09:32

I expected profit-taking to continue. There's a big gap to fill all the way down to 205p.

[the drewster] 21/11/2012 09:19

shock horror...

[the drewster] 20/11/2012 16:04

Will the 240 support hold is the question for tomorrow.

[cockneyrebel] 20/11/2012 12:08

Canacord say Buy - 313p target.

CR

[sat69] 20/11/2012 10:04

Great results but the profit takers have arrived as I expected.

[the drewster] 20/11/2012 09:00

CR I hope you are right if you are in, but this has very cyclical tendancies, and news tends to be priced in (and more) before it arrives.
I still expect short term drop.

[cockneyrebel] 20/11/2012 07:30

Beat forecasts and a big hike to the divi - very confident going forward.

Ooodles of cash.

In a market where it's hard to find growth and income growth these are generating both, strongly too.

Brokers have been tweaking up forecast but expect the coming year's forecasts to get raised imo.

A single digit PE and around 3% yield going fwd and growth well into double digit meand a PEG around 0.6 to 0.7. Cheap imo.

Can see these going way higher yet imo

CR

[cockneyrebel] 19/11/2012 17:13

hmm, I think the reverse - PAG doing rather well imo.

Reckon these are weaker than they should be cos many relate them to builder performance rather than buy to let imo.

CR

[sat69] 19/11/2012 16:47

Probably see a larger driplet tomorrow! Some serious profit taking imo.

[cockneyrebel] 19/11/2012 11:46

Lovely little diplet ahead of tomorrow's results.

All these buy to lets are keeping the UK housing market as strong as it is imo.

CR

[the drewster] 16/11/2012 15:45

10% premium to reach their target is hardly awe inspiring.
Previous years heavy rises into results suggest that all the good news is priced in.
I predict a retrace, and wouldn't be in the least surprised to see it test 200.

[cockneyrebel] 16/11/2012 11:42

A buy out today from Berenberg - raises target from 230p to 280p:

16 Nov Paragon Group of... PAG Berenberg Buy 249.45 253.00 230.00 280.00

[cockneyrebel] 15/11/2012 14:41

Results Tues

CR