Panther Metals Share Discussion Threads

[hazl] 14/8/2024 13:17

Read this.
I found it very interesting.

It might have dragged it's heels during the war like environment we have been in but they will need resources like ours.



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AI requires a great deal of energy. According to Google, the cost of processing an AI request is around 10 times more than a regular search query, while training an AI model demands a huge amount of power and data capacity.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects demand for data centre services – which currently account for just over 1% of global electricity usage – to double within the next two years, driven in no small part by AI advancements.

This, HSBC’s report says, is likely to “strain power grids not equipped to deal with significant load growth”.

“Indeed, power grids around the world are facing increased vulnerabilities as they transition from fossil fuel systems to ones that distribute renewable electricity,” the bank says.

Adapting to this demand will also require significant infrastructure build-out, creating substantial additional demand for copper and other metals used in electrification.

Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura, said at the FT Commodities event that AI and data centres could contribute an additional 1 million tonnes of copper demand, worsening a “4 to 5 million [tonne] deficit”.

“That’s not something that anyone has actually factored into a lot of the supply and balances,” he said.



Metals in short supply

The future of the metals market looks precarious.

The IEA notes that during 2023, prices of critical minerals fell sharply. Lithium dropped by 75%, while the prices of cobalt, nickel and graphite fell by between 30% and 45%, according to its Global Critical Minerals Outlook for 2024.

These price dips occurred despite demand growth remaining steady, driven instead by a strong increase in global supply, including from China – expected to provide 77% of rare earth metals by 2030 – as well as Indonesia and key markets in Africa.

This may sound like good news for longer-term security of supply. However, as the IEA says:

“Today’s well-supplied market may not be a good guide for the future, as demand for critical minerals continues to rise.”

In a scenario where national energy and climate goals are met, critical mineral demand is expected to triple by 2030 and quadruple by 2040, with copper representing “by far the largest increase”, it finds.

To close the “significant” gap between prospective supply and demand, the IEA estimates around US$800mn investment in mining will be required before 2040.

Yet modest metals prices “have provided a headwind for new investment”, with spending on mining lower in 2023 than the previous year. Exploration investment is lower now than a decade ago.

“Financing diversified critical mineral supply chains faces numerous challenges, such as cost inflation, long-term price uncertainty and limited value placed on diversification by consumers,” the agency says.

Rohitesh Dhawan, chief executive of the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), says this dynamic “represents a once-in-a-generation change in the mineral intensity of the global economy”.

“There is a big task ahead not just for the mining industry, but investors, governments and other stakeholders too, for how to meet this demand while helping create a more safe, just and sustainable world,” he tells GTR.

“According to data from S&P, 127 new mines opened globally between 2002 and 2023 and took an average of 15.7 years after discovery to get to commercial production. This varied from six to 32 years. This shows that we will need to work differently in future to ensure that supply can be brought online quicker without lowering responsible standards of production.”

Dhawan says governments have a key role in accelerating the growth of mining while ensuring operators maintain high standards.

This “will need governments to be more proactive than the past, for example in helping resolve competing interests in or uses of land when it comes to the developments of new projects”, he says.



A shifting market

But the market needs to take action, too. For instance, A McKinsey report published last year suggests commodity traders could also provide pre-financing for new mines and help producers access international markets, and there are signs this is already happening.

Bloomberg reported in June that some traders that have traditionally focused on energy, such as Mercuria, are now strengthening their position in metals, for example by offering large-scale prefinancing facilities to mining companies.

It says Kazakh producer Eurasian Resources Group (ERG) has turned to the trading market to seek pre-payment of up to US$1bn in exchange for copper and aluminium offtake agreements, which could prove highly lucrative if prices rise as steeply as anticipated.

“This makes sense for traders,” says Walter Vollebregt, owner of commodity trading consultancy Vollebregt Advisory. “They are competing for a scarce supply of copper concentrates, and miners are playing hard to get.”

He tells GTR: “Interest rates are a lot higher now, and if mining companies in markets, like ERG in Kazakhstan, need to refinance bond issues or want an alternative source of funding, traders have the cash and are able to provide – with their banks – competitive pre-export finance loans against a steady export flow of material.

“They can easily do a billion-dollar prepayment deal these days, especially if their banks and the insurance market are sharing the performance risk.”

The IEA also recommends traders provide improved transparency on pricing and wider availability of hedging instruments, while McKinsey says larger market participants could deploy their strong financial position and market knowledge to boost price discovery and liquidity in key markets.

This is a more complex challenge, however.

The derivatives market for critical minerals – an important means of hedging exposure to price volatility and increasing liquidity – remains “tiny” compared to traditional metals markets, says a World Economic Forum (WEF) report published in April.

ICMM’s Dhawan believes both traders and banks have a “crucial role to play in meeting the required demand for critical minerals”.

“The role of commodity traders is to ensure that the right quantity and specification of the required metals are available to those who need them, and to also help improve traceability in the supply chain,” he says.

“The role of banks relates to providing debt financing for existing and new projects as well as driving higher standards by incorporating responsible mining standards into their lending criteria.”



Power struggles

The AI boom also has major implications for the supply of power, and by extension, the energy transition.

The computational power used by AI doubles every 100 days, the WEF says in a separate April report.

“The energy required to run AI tasks is already accelerating with an annual growth rate between 26% and 36%,” it says. “This means by 2028, AI could be using more power than the entire country of Iceland used in 2021.”

This creates several challenges in terms of power supply, HSBC Global Research says.

“Significant electricity demand growth, supercharged by AI, can not only put national climate goals at risk, but can strain power grids not equipped to deal with significant load growth,” its report says.

“Indeed, power grids around the world are facing increased vulnerabilities as they transition from fossil fuel systems to ones that distribute renewable electricity. This rapid growth in electricity demand from AI raises concerns over grid stability and energy prices.”

Data centres – crucial to training and running AI models – are expected to consume up to 4% of global power by the end of the decade, potentially more than double the figure for today, Goldman Sachs says in a May report.

“In the US and Europe, this increased demand will help drive the kind of electricity growth that hasn’t been seen in a generation,” the report says. “Along the way, the carbon dioxide emissions of data centres may more than double between 2022 and 2030.”

US utilities companies would be required to invest as much as US$50bn in new generation capacity to support data centres alone, Goldman Sachs says.

In Europe, power demand could grow by as much as 50% over the next 10 years.

The renewables industry had a record-breaking year in 2023, with output from solar and wind increasing by 38% compared to the previous year, research by Rystad Energy finds. It believes last year was the first time the share of power generated from renewable sources passed the 30% mark globally.

However, the energy transition could be threatened if renewables are not deployed quickly enough to meet a demand surge propelled by a new technological revolution.

Richard Kinder, executive chairman of US pipeline operator Kinder Morgan, told investors in April that tech companies are “beginning to recognise the role that natural gas and nuclear must play” in keeping data centres running.

“The emphasis on renewables as the only source of power is fatally flawed in terms of meeting the real demands of the market,” he said.

Lynn Good, chief executive of US-based Duke Energy Corporation, said at an industry event in April that the company’s pledge to close its coal-fired power plants over the next decade “is being challenged by all of the growth” in electricity demand.

The HSBC Global Research report notes AI itself could help tackle some of these issues, for example by predicting power demand patterns or improving models used to track emissions and reduce waste – although it notes that research remains limited into the energy demand of AI systems.



Traders eye opportunity

Again, commodity traders and banks may play a crucial role in responding to a spike in demand.

Trafigura’s global head of gas, power and renewables, Richard Holtum, told the FT Commodities event the company is “incredibly bullish” on electricity, and the trader is not alone in setting up power trading desks across the globe.

An Oliver Wyman study published in March found that gas and power trading generated around half of revenue in the commodity trading sector in 2022, overtaking oil. Growing demand is already being seen as a transformative opportunity in the trading sector.

“If you look at the physical markets, it’s still very much the old traditional commodities, and oil still rules,” Vollebrect says. “Globally, oil consumption is still growing annually at an average of 1 million barrels per day, maybe not in the European Union or the UK, but in many other countries.

“However, in power, many countries are experiencing constraints on the grid. Trading companies are adding teams on the power side, and this will continue to grow. This is an attractive market for traders, and is also a way for them to dilute their fossil fuels portfolio.”

McKinsey adds that hedge funds and banks could also be “attracted by growing value pools”.

“New opportunities in power and gas (but mostly in power) will likely emerge around three topics: entering new markets, data-driven trading, and new assets,” it says. Banks can also use their financing tools and market knowledge to offer “additional liquid and risk management offerings”.

“Such vibrant markets can both increase value pools and help facilitate the energy transition through investments in new and emerging technologies and products,” the report says.

“Doing so could have broader benefits in terms of meeting global climate goals and building and scaling a greener, cleaner future.”


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[hazl] 14/8/2024 13:13

Not at all!

There were government regulations coming into place so I heard.

I think it is an improvement taking it out of the penny share category, for sentiment alone.


IMO

[spudtheplumber] 14/8/2024 12:26

Yeah, that's why the board just converted 120k into shares..

[soulsauce] 14/8/2024 12:24

It certainly seems like it was a smoke screen for something danmart, though I am not convinced for issuing more shares as there wouldn't have been any more of a problem issuing shares from the circa 100m we had in place.
One thing is for certain the reasons given being for gaining a better spread and to be more liquid was for the birds.

[danmart2] 14/8/2024 12:15

Consolidation was a smokes screen for poor performance and to make it easier to print more shares in the future

[xow98] 14/8/2024 10:16

But we have 2 VMS's, apparently

[danmart2] 14/8/2024 09:51

VMS strike would be a game changer but I have been investing for long enough in mining exploration to understand it’s a rare find.

[gcinvestor] 14/8/2024 09:49

RNS: 10th July 2024"soil geochemistry in this area shows very anomalous levels of multiple elements including nickel (up to 614ppm Ni), cobalt (214 ppm Co),copper (up to 861 ppm Cu) and zinc (128 ppm Zn) "https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/PALM/dotted-lake-geophysical-modelling/16560293

[soulsauce] 14/8/2024 08:41

No point putting numbers on anything until we actually find something commercial.

[gcinvestor] 14/8/2024 08:21

If you can process the topography data that's available PALM is currently undervalued and should have a Mcap between 20-25m should there be successful drilling and VMS strikes like Darren's suggests that valuation will be north of 60-70m

[danmart2] 14/8/2024 07:42

Depends what they find in the ground

[roman2325] 13/8/2024 17:12

How big a rise is everyone expecting?

[onehanded] 13/8/2024 06:42

Yes directors are near fully loaded. Expect news soon and massive jump in share price Question is to add or wait for news and miss the first rise.

[spudtheplumber] 12/8/2024 18:17

The last director dealing was 11 days ago, Directors are now inside, I believe .

[soulsauce] 12/8/2024 15:12

20mins to close of the market and not a single trade.
We keep being told the excitement is going to crank up here and that there is a lot going on in the background but the tumbleweed times continue.
Come on Darren get the newsflow moving 😏

[hazl] 05/8/2024 07:33

Not many left still standing.
Well done PALM.

[hazl] 05/8/2024 05:36

Thanks xow98 .
Appreciated.

[xow98] 04/8/2024 21:45

StockBible
@StockBible
How reliable is 3D inversion and TDEM in assisting in a discovery?

Superior Prospects Inc
@Superior_Prosp
·
TDEM defines conductive layers since it is very sensitive to the presence of conductive material, while 3D geophysical inversion modeling of gravity data provides the physical properties of the subsurface and estimates of depth, geometry and volume of the conductive layers.

[xow98] 04/8/2024 20:27

Superior Prospects Inc
@Superior_Prosp
·
Can't wait for the results of the 3D Inversion Modelling and CET Grid Analysis of the magnetic data, as well as 3D conductive plate modelling of the TDEM data, by Abitibi Geophysics Ltd on Panther's Dotted Lake Project! #PALM



Darren Hazelwood
@darrenhazelwood
Agreed, combined with the additional knowledge we have in relation to the wider area this is indeed very exciting.

[hazl] 04/8/2024 18:27

Can't access X at present .
Can you give us the gist of it please?

[gcinvestor] 04/8/2024 18:14

https://x.com/superior_prosp/status/1820161073666019456?s=46&t=xVFw8zQgUvslzTc4UJyjSg