Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[donkikong] 08/5/2023 05:49

hey neil, there is too much vagueness to cover to explain it further. But I repeat that I referred to chance of success of each field and not compound valuation probabilities which are distorted for other reasons.

[references] 07/5/2023 22:23

Ford tin - Thank you for that.

[cat33] 07/5/2023 21:11

The dangers of PANR were always made clear by the professional oil and gas commentators

[neil9327b] 07/5/2023 20:06

@donkikong: To add, I think the thing that alerted me to the risk associated with oil exploration, was when broker reports I read talked about the concept of "risked" and "unrisked" valuations of a company's assets. Where the "unrisked" value was the value obtained if all went well and the oil proved to be extractable, and the "risked" value being the same value but reduced by a probability-of-failure factor.

This factor seemed to be around 6 or thereabouts, thereby warning me that this, overall, was a high risk game, and that there was in theory a 5/6 chance, or around 83% chance, that I would lose my entire investment.

But this is only the case if there is a single oilfield.

In PANR's case, as at Nov 2020 when I first invested, there were (and still are) multiple oilfields that were independent of each other, and this caused the probability that none are successful to drop a great deal from 83% down to around 30%. Though with the caveat that a "success" case here might only return what I had originally invested if only one field worked.
At that time the "risked" valuation of the company's assets was around triple the market cap. So I determined that this was a good investment on a risk-adjusted basis.

Now, with the drills we've done, and flow tests complete, even with the problems encountered, I think the likelihood of getting back nothing has declined to below 20%. With the huge upside discussed elsewhere of course.

[neil9327b] 07/5/2023 18:20

@donkikong re: "Experts in resource investing are not comparable to experts one may be used to from daily life"
I would say, as a general point, that "experts" in "daily life" are very far from being able to offer a safe bet on anything. Can you think of any?

[pro_s2009] 07/5/2023 11:43

Pro_S20097 May '23 - 11:03 87 of 88
Please point to the news release where SLB directly say this is a. World Class Asset

Can you or are you lying again?


QUOTE......swendab1 7 May '23 - 10:10 - 86 of 86

For clarity SLB and other world class names say Panr have a world class asset . A Chinese troll poster called Pro ( and various other names ) says not

So do we believe SLB or troll ?

Chow mien please 🤣🤣🤣🤣...UNQUOTE.





Pro_S2009 7 May '23 - 12:41 - 88 of 88

I think SLB have NEVER said that PANR have a "World Class Asset".......

So come on swenny.........point us to the news release, or admit that your ramping and lying yet again........as usual.

🤣🤣🤣🤣9315;🤣ԍ15;🤣🤣;🤣🤣🤣

[thebull8] 07/5/2023 11:19

Clearly I have closed my short position Easy money made If it drops too much from here I might buy. If it goes up to 40-50p on nothing I will short

[donkikong] 07/5/2023 07:46

@neil I was not referring to Scot who has no geological expertise and always said that upfront. My error was thinking that expert judgement sufficed to predict drilling success and I wouldn't rely on such predictions again.
What I would have liked to have been different is the recognition of what is a commonplace experience for the commodity exploration scene in general, as I know now: that experts are not enough. I didn't understand the degree to which this is true. Experts in resource investing are not comparable to experts one may be used to from daily life, because the fields are not understood to a similar degree. And as the share price went up, this should have lead to more caution and to more consideration.
I always understood that this was a gamble, but I overestimated the odds immensely (of Alkaid and drilling in general).

[neil9327b] 06/5/2023 17:08

donkikong:

You assert that other board members have not adequately explained the risks involved in this investment. I would respectfully disagree with you on this. All of the positive talk by posters like Scot have talked about the quality and value of the assets. They have not sought to make any suggestions about the share price. I don't think I ever saw a post from Scot saying something like "In three months the share price will be over £3". Instead he and the others were saying things like "in three months the assets proved up would justify a £3 share price. It's a big difference.

I don't think you've been misled, and I don't think you've made a bad investment. Quite to the contrary in fact, I remain convinced that it is likely to be a great investment - it's just there have been some moderate tething problems on the way.

I think the error you've made, if any, is in assuming that the market will at all times keep the share price in line with the rational evaluation of the value of the company's assets. Unfortunately it often doesn't work that way in the equity markets, and prices, especially for non-dividend paying oil explorers owned mainly by public investors, can get way out of kilter with fundamentals, both on the upside and the downside.

In the last couple of weeks I've been caught out myself by this effect, where another AIM company that I own, that is profitable even at the moment (though pays no dividend yet), has gone down by 50%. I had thought its level of profitability would have supported its share price. But I was wrong about this. This is a problem for me because I was hoping to sell some in order to part-fund a property purchase. My mistake, and I lost a few thousand selling at the lower valuation.

Stock market investing is risky for non-professionals, particularly because what can go wrong is often something that the investor assumes is unlikely, but is actually a real possibility.

The only real way to learn is by doing. You have to make the mistakes in order to learn from the mistakes, and come out of the other end a better more knowledgeable investor.

Fundamentally, while I don't know your specific finances or near-term financial requirements, I don't think you've really done -much- that is wrong here. I'm sitting on a £110K loss on PANR, and I'm not worried in the slightest now because I knew that it might happen, and I know I won't NEED the money for years, if ever.

So if you need the money now, sell. But if you continue to believe the bull case (albeit it possibly tempered by some level of upcoming dilution), then do stay invested for the longer term when the value you get out of the investment is determined by the value of the assets, post a sale, rather than the fickle opinions of fellow shareholders.

[hpcg] 06/5/2023 13:20

Forward- what a bizarre thing to say about an investor that they change their mind as the evidence changes. How is it supposed to work?

[padamster] 06/5/2023 10:08

Pro - here’s the weekly reminder - it’s the weekend and the markets are closed. Save the negative posts until Monday night to watch the shares rise on Tuesday. 😊

[pro_s2009] 06/5/2023 09:12

Whats the water cut at Alkaid-2 ?

Is the data still being "hidden" from investors as they might "take it the wrong way" ????

Wbat was the wording used ? Not being released as investors might "misunderstand" it.......... ??????? Remind me of what they said please..........

Mmmmmmmmmmmmmm