Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[neo26] 20/2/2023 18:14

The only reason shorters are taking adv is that only 40% of the production was oil, mkt expected more.I think flow test will improve significantly.Mkt knows panr need funds and the bond debt is an issue.They should have taken partner back in dec 21 when company alluded to it.Well i hope they go for farm in this time, the project is just too big for panr.

[hpcg] 20/2/2023 17:05

I wasn't going to bring it up, because it really isn't pertinent on a case by case basis, but that WH Ireland analyst is almost exactly wrong. It is almost always a losing game to be long early stage explorers and appraisers. It depends on the starting point of course, but the even for a decent discovery the price will always overshoot fair value. Given that the vast majority of junior oilers either have to deal or raise in the capital markets to move a project forward. The charts for junior oilers are almost always terrible over the long term. It is however unusual for a company to go out of business. Antrim Energy put the lights out in 2016 but almost always they cling on. GKP famously took equity owners to almost zero, with new money having enjoyed the period since, Canadian Overseas Petroleum are still going despite have lost equity holders over 99% of their money but just will not die.

[forwood] 20/2/2023 16:33

Loglorry. Canacord used the figure of $15m per well and sensitivities ranging up 22.5m

You have a v sceptical view of service company integrity. Companies that don't have integrity don't get to the top of their game.

I am quite sane, however, WHI's view is that shorts are foolish:

"We believe that as a rule shorting early-stage exploration and appraisal stocks is a fools’ endeavour and not something that is often done by investors with experience in the sector...... We would definitely sleep better at night being long Pantheon and accepting the inherent uncertainty of early stage appraisal projects than having a short position on the name. Pantheon Resources undeniably has some of the best early stage appraisal assets to emerge out of North America in recent decades. Should Pantheon’s results continue to be encouraging, as we expect, short sellers may need to hang onto their hats and get out their cheque books."

The geology of the North Slope has been evaluated thoroughly. Ignoring what's there is another example of foolishness.

Any fool can sell this down. What matters in due course is closing the short. The lower this goes, the more risk there is if an opportunistic bid.

Every monster oil find started life as an early stage appraisal project, and drilling new fields, especially here is fraught with difficulties. As time and experience grows, these problems are overcome.

I think the problems for those short is recognising the right time to take profts. You have been lucky to date. Director sales were a bit of a gift as were the problems in this well in a reservoir that represents about 4% of the total acreage. Market cap is tiny compared to the asset values when proved. Even now, WHI and Cannacord have values of £2 to £3 a share risked, over £10 unrisked. Using the 10% of OIP figures, the gross value of oil in the ground is > £115 billion. Market cap, £385m, pocket change to the majors who've been making bumper profits and need to secure future revenues.

[thebull8] 20/2/2023 16:12

The resurgence of these traders and the hogwash being sprouted about reasons for the technical move down only reconfirms to me that we are due another leg Seen this many a time before

[padamster] 20/2/2023 15:45

Loglorry- What’s your opinion of the deal with eSeis?

[luckyswimmer] 20/2/2023 15:36

References, there's always a technical risk when removing blockages so the fact that it was successful suggests the price should have risen so I agree with your point. The abnormal price move is probably just the last desperate moves by shorters to shake a few out but I suspect only the resilient are holding now.

[loglorry1] 20/2/2023 15:32

No Padmaster I just expect a world class company would say nice things about a client who was paying them millions to do thier job. Why wouldn't they?

[total return] 20/2/2023 15:32

Observation: The short brigade taking advantage of the lack of typical support in the US during our afternoon trading (as the US market is closed today) to try to panic the longs.

[thebull8] 20/2/2023 15:30

Because the fact that the well would be cleaned was well known and front run. Is this the first time you have invested in an AIM stock?

[luckyswimmer] 20/2/2023 15:23

Missed the bottom of the channel at 49p and ended up paying 50.2p, oh well, close enough to the bottom. Hoping to close the trade when the unblocked flow rate is announced.

[luckyswimmer3] 20/2/2023 14:41

Thanks for the chart, that ascending channel looks good for 63p in the coming days. I think I'll add a trade to my core holding.

[references] 20/2/2023 14:37

Bizarre trading in this share. How can the share price be lower AFTER announcing that the blockage has been cleared??

[loglorry1] 20/2/2023 14:31

1. They have already unblocked it
A sane person might argue that its unblocked ones the flow has started not once they company has run the proecss of unblocking it!

2. The previous blocked flow result suggested commerciality
"suggested" LOL Ok then

3. Cannacord has stated NPV10 breakeven at c.80bopd/1,000ft with oil at c.$65/bbl
LOL yes I know. I guess they wouldn't be very good brokers if they couldn't make some sort of model that works. I wonder what cost number they used to get a working well (if that's what they get). They have spent milliions so far failing.

4. SLB, the top oil services company in the world is supporting PANR with drilling (they did the unblocking in record time) and leading the data room effort. They've said over 17.5bn barrels OIP.
SLB are paid contractors. There is OIP everywhere dones't make it commercial.

5. Baker Hughes, ranked 3rd oil services describes the PANR assets as 'world class'.
Yawn. World class at paying them fat fees I suppose.

Those assets are less than 20 miles south of Prudhoe Bay, the largest, most prolific field in North America.
So what if the reservoir is not exploitable. They keep drillintg and they keep messing it up. You do know its not quite as simple as drilling near by something that did produce well? BTW 20miles in geological terms can be chalk and cheese.

6. The short thesis is empty of any hard data, just a belief it's too good to be true and baseless insinuations of a fraudulent promote v eSeis seismic data, SLB & BH data from actual drills.
Errrrmmm not its not the short thesis is fine. Market cap is huge. They keep trying and failing and they are skint again and need to raise again for the next drill.

[loglorry1] 20/2/2023 14:23

Jaknife you idiot the MM you talk about are international. They have a big office in Ireland I believe. They are maket makers in UK markets which is no doubt where your price stabalisation takes place since that's where most of the volume is.

I suspect something may have not gone to plan at the well.

[kemche] 20/2/2023 14:05

Once the well has been thoroughly cleaned out then we could have another Gatwick Gusher on our hands. Then whoosh!

GLA LTHers!

[forwood] 20/2/2023 13:59

Loglorry, I don't think short are pathetic, just lying scumbags whose aim is to sow fear and doubt (FUD).

1. They have already unblocked it
2. The previous blocked flow result suggested commerciality
3. Cannacord has stated NPV10 breakeven at c.80bopd/1,000ft with oil at c.$65/bbl
4. SLB, the top oil services company in the world is supporting PANR with drilling (they did the unblocking in record time) and leading the data room effort. They've said over 17.5bn barrels OIP.
5. Baker Hughes, ranked 3rd oil services describes the PANR assets as 'world class'.
Those assets are less than 20 miles south of Prudhoe Bay, the largest, most prolific field in North America.
6. The short thesis is empty of any hard data, just a belief it's too good to be true and baseless insinuations of a fraudulent promote v eSeis seismic data, SLB & BH data from actual drills.

I could go on but you get the drift.