Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[olderwiser2] 26/10/2022 21:49

trueant
A poster that doesn't recognize oil, is not going to get far in oil investing
I quote your post 29557
"There is NO OIL flow, the RNS is telling you that - albeit with several shiny balls to try and distract you. Classic"

Then the RNS,
'The operations to date have recovered approximately 10% of the frac fluid used, with oil cuts averaging from 8% to 12%."

As to the fact PANR are this far down the discovery and proof of commerciality path, with 100% ownership of ~2.3 billion barrels of recoverable oil in play. We should be delighted they have fended off the lowball offers

[truant2tb1] 26/10/2022 21:01

Still no Farm-in for this spectacular world class resource... hmmm4 years on... zilch

[rideacockhorse] 26/10/2022 18:36

Sorry Truant, didn't know you were busy. You have to work for a living then? Just you and Tom?

[truant2tb1] 26/10/2022 18:20

Truant has been busy today! I've got a life outside posting on ADVFN unlike many of you lot!There's nothing remotely bullish in the latest update, I'm surprised at how bearish WH Irelands note was citing operation issues. I'm of the position there's no commercial flow here to anywhere near justify a £100m MCap nevermind £800mil it whatever it is... indeed the most likely outcome is a rerun of Texas, the modus operandi is the same.Note the use of the word "not uncommon" twice in the RNS, those eagle eyed amongst you will have had alarm bells ringing...

[rideacockhorse] 26/10/2022 18:04

Winnfrith and his groupies have a similar track record to my own: some great successes and some equally appalling losses. As such, they are nothing special. They use cynicism in online forums in the belief this will push the share price down. When they are proved right they shout from the rooftops. When proved wrong they disappear (notice the lack of posts from Truant today? Coincidence?).

[rideacockhorse] 26/10/2022 16:39

In case you didn't know Jaknife is one of Winnfrith's avatars.

[forwood] 26/10/2022 16:19

If that is the case, more fool him. He's had plenty of opportunity to trade the 14 points movement in the last 2 days.

[probabilityofsuccess] 26/10/2022 16:13

He’s not trading Forwood - from what he’s written, he’s taken a position at a price and will stick with it until the endgame - either he’s margined out (which he’s confirmed is unlikely as he has plenty of capital), it’s sold at a large premium (at which point he’ll be forced to close out and crystallise a (large) loss), or the price goes down to his 10p target, he sells out and makes a large profit. He’s a fundamental ‘investor̵7; from the sounds of it.

[forwood] 26/10/2022 16:02

JakNife, your insight into my background and trading hasn't even extended to what limited info is on this site.

I've had CFD accounts for almost 20 years and have one now, though the majority of my not inconsiderable funds are in ISAs and SIPPs which do not allow them.

I've been involved with PANR since Texas days. I'm well aware of the bad luck / mistakes made there and the enthusiasm that accompanied the activity. I would expect enthusiasm but it does not mean fraud. In addition to the geology that offered so much more than Texas, the involvement with Great Bear significantly strengthened technical resources and management control.

I do trade elsewhere but this is my core holding and given that it has been a major contributor to increasing my capital by 250% in the last few years, it's not an error to keep giving it my attention for the next few years (or until the company is sold, or I've made several million in it!).

Your response to Rabito's comments on flow and payback are somewhat naive, given the extent of the geological resource and currently estimated recoverable here. Much depends in the ability to exploit the resource, where the stated aim is to prove it up and sell it on. If that doesn't happen (and Jay has already rejected offers that didn't reach his value threshold), the production model outlined in the last webinar does open options to go down the production route themselves.

Well, good luck with your short. I doubt that it will work out well for you. As to the blinkers you seem to think I'm operating with, you couldn't be wider off track. Speaking of which, how about the way your negativity colours your view of what may happen here? Selective attention to factors in the past, while dismissing the positives in the more recent history does not suggest an overly cautious approach to trading, Perhaps you need your extensive portfolio to offset the errors that will inevitably come your way.

[pannikin] 26/10/2022 15:53

JakNife

You are confusing an exploration company sitting on >20b OIP with a small producer with few assets and little room for revenue growth.

You might want to ignore the implications of PANR demonstrating a method of extracting at least 2 billion barrels of oil, but the market will not, and neither will the oil industry.

Good luck.

[cezuan] 26/10/2022 15:51

JakNife PANR modelled break even at 30$. For Alkaid they modelled 44 wells at peak which they assumed to flow longterm at 640bpd (30k bpd). But say it's "just" your 400b, that is 64m$ annual profit >for every 10$< of Alaskan oil >30$. At 60$ oil that's 192m/y profit alone. PANR could take itself private in 4 years at our mc. How is that not bullish?

[probabilityofsuccess] 26/10/2022 15:46

Ultimately, JakNife is in the same position as many on here in the sense he’s playing for the endgame. He thinks it’ll be worth close to zero, we think it’ll sell for materially more than the current price.

I disagree with him, but doesn’t sound like his commentary is influenced by trading. To that end, que sera sera…….so it’s a moot point given we’ll only know in (a couple of years?) time when its either sold for a lot more (or isn’t!).

My sense is that, based on the activity to date, farminees will become increasingly interested in the short term, even before ‘proof’ after x months of commerciality.

Bwtfdik

[madd_rip] 26/10/2022 15:46

I agree, you're an insufferable bore

[pannikin] 26/10/2022 15:31

"Specifically, the most bullish flow that I expect is an initial flow of 1,200 BOPD falling to 900 BOPD after 6 months and 400 BOPD after 2 years. In total I'm forecasting less than $50m of revenues in the first two years" from wells that will cost $12-14$ each going forward.

So a payback of less than 9 months and generating $7-$10m pa after two years. You do realise that those numbers will send the share price up like a rocket because if Alkaid flows as per your bullish case that will indicate net revenues of around $1.5bn over 5 years (+$200m pa thereafter) with development costs <$700m, and assuming oil prices significantly lower than they are now.

This from Alkaid alone.
SMD is expected to have better reservoir characteristics and lots more oil. LBFF is 1000ft thick and runs for at least 10 miles.

All to play for. Good luck.