Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[quazie12] 25/4/2022 08:57

Its a no brainer really. Serious long term underinvestment in this sector has hampered availability of supply which is currently creating a commodities price supercycle. Rising costs will make it so much more expensive going forward to prove up huge finds like this even if they knew where to look.

[pharmawotsit] 25/4/2022 08:54

 scot - I think the PANR market cap and share price are a little historic in that WH Ireland article.

[quazie12] 25/4/2022 08:51

Patience will be required here for us to get the deserved result. The market is not just in denial about PANR but the whole resource and mining sector. As sniffy environmentally friendly investors and fund managers were baling out of energy stocks so private equity and hedge funds have been buying up bargains andwait patiently to make a killing.

[total return] 25/4/2022 08:50

Markets everywhere taking a tanking,Brent/WTI both off more than 2% and sterling in freefall. Think the muted share price response may be a function of the bigger market picture. I am sure it will settle and respond in due course to the significant improvement in the fundamental story.

[tmmalik] 25/4/2022 08:36

Did another top-up now after selling few other shares (which I don't want ) but panr case is compelling enough now .Dyor

[scot126] 25/4/2022 08:31

Dear All - please see below first reaction from WH Ireland, dated 25/4/22. Sounds like the WH Ireland will be publishing a more comprehensive note after he's had a chance to digest info from the webinar. That's what I would have done if I were in his position, fwiw.


Pantheon Resources (PANR) – Corporate – Resource Upgrade
Market Cap £938.5m Share Price 124p

Pantheon Resources announced that based on management’s analysis i) the resource estimate for the Lower Basin Floor Fan at Theta West has increased and ii) an oil in place resource estimate for the Slope Fan System at Talitha has been established.

The company now estimates that the oil in place at Theta West amounts to 17.8 billion barrels of oil (a 61% increase on prior estimates) and that the recoverable resource estimate amounts to 1.78 billion barrels as a most likely case (a 48% increase from the previous estimates). The company believes these resource estimates can be categorised at contingent resources.

The company estimates that the Slope Fan System at Talitha has the potential to contain 2.2 billion barrels of oil in place – the company has not yet provided a recoverable resource estimate for this resource.

The company further indicated that the resource upgrades will be discussed in the upcoming webinar (5:30 BST on 26 April 2022) along with expectations for the Alkaid #2 well planned for July 2022.

WHI View: We have long held the view that the Lower Basin Floor fan is above all else the resource to keep an eye on over the course of the winter 20/22 drilling program as it had, by far, the most potential to create shareholder value. On a pre-drill basis, we were looking to have the well derisk the resource, which has been done, but were not expecting a resource upgrade of the scale announced today. We believe the announcement is unambiguously positive and that it will be well received by the market. We look forward to learning more about the upgrade via the investor presentation and will update the market when we have had the opportunity to assess the background and implications of this material resource upgrade.

[hiddendepths] 25/4/2022 08:28

Market move roughly as I expected on expected upgrade.

What moves markets is news that's not expected. It doesn't care about underlying value! It knows "the price of everything and the value of nothing!"

[oilforex] 25/4/2022 08:28

Insane update!

[mlf51] 25/4/2022 08:26

Looks like the market is in denial, or are they fishing for stop losses.

[scot126] 25/4/2022 08:16

NB NB NB Canaccord risked price per share moves to 717p and unrisked moves to 2370p!!!!!! Wake up market! :)

Canaccord now has Recoverable Resource at 3.012bbo, which looks to be pre incorporating a figure for the SFS. Looks like there'll be a further upgrade to the Recoverable Resource when management completes its data analysis of the SFS.

[chris0805] 25/4/2022 08:13

Looking forward to revised valuations from btgman and Rabito79. Webinar should be good!

[quazie12] 25/4/2022 08:09

A truly awesome 10 minutes to fill your boots at this price. I have actually sold some other core holdings that I do not really want to sell in order to buy PANR sub 1.50

[scot126] 25/4/2022 08:08

I have added to my investment in PANR on the opening. IMHO you cannot travel and arrive an upgrade of that scale. Stock moves up from here. Just wait!

[total return] 25/4/2022 08:06

WH Ireland's note today describes this news as "unambigously positive". No doubt Scot or others will have the fuller detail.

[mlf51] 25/4/2022 07:59

bulltrap a 61% increase in 1 zone "looks promising",is that the best you can do.

[scot126] 25/4/2022 07:58

Dear All - please find below the first reaction fr4om Canaccord dated 25/4/22.

Resource upgrade following Theta West success

Canaccord Genuity view Speculative Buy TP moves to 280p from 250p

Following the successful drilling and testing of the Lower Basin Floor Fan (LBFF) reservoir in the recently completed Theta West well and the testing in the previously drilled Talitha well (Pantheon, 100%), the company has reviewed and significantly increased its resource estimates for that primary target reservoir.

The company now estimates total oil in place (OIP) for the LBFF of 17.8 bn barrels (+61% cf. pre Theta West drill estimate), and it has increased its estimate of recoverable resources to 1.78 bn barrels (assuming 10% recovery factor) an uplift of 48% on previous estimates. In addition, the management now provides a first estimate of 2.2 bn barrel OIP in the Slope Fan System (SFS) following successful testing at Talitha. Further work is needed to determine a recoverable resource estimate.

The LBFF estimate is a significant uplift over the previous assessment, and that follows the incorporation of the new well and test data into the interpretation of the extensive high-quality 3D seismic dataset, which covers most of the company's acreage. We see this as an important step forward in providing increased confidence in terms of the scale of the commercial potential of Pantheon's Alaskan licences, which in turn should further raise the wider industry profile of these assets, particularly considering the current macro conditions.


Webinar 26th April, 5.30 BST

Pantheon will hold a webinar and we expect that will include a round up of the 2022 winter drilling and testing activities together with a more detailed presentation of the work carried out to deliver the current updated OIP and recoverable resources estimates.

Valuation, target price and rating

Assessing a market value remains challenging ahead of three key components. 1) Demonstration of commerciality - we expect the planned horizontal drilling and long term testing at Alkaid this summer to provide key input data to this; 2) better understanding of the likely number of wells, infrastructure requirements and capital/operating costs associated with such a potentially very large development in Alaska; 3) independent assessment of the recoverable resources.

That said, the drilling and testing results at Talitha and Theta West have been very encouraging, matching or bettering company hopes in these two vertical wells some 10 miles apart at each end of a very large resource base. The post-winter 2022 operational programme evaluation and analysis has confirmed a notably positive direction of travel for Pantheon's oil resources, and we believe that should strengthen the company's hand in any future wider industry or partner discussions. We raise our target price to 280p (from 250p) to reflect the positive outcome of the winter 2022 operational programme and the company's improving confidence in the resource, and we maintain our SPECULATIVE BUY rating.

Company resource estimates
LBFF (mmbbls) 2021 Now
OIP 11,200 17,800
Recoverable 1,200 1,780
SFS (mmbbls)
OIP N/A 2,200
Recoverable N/A N/A

Source: Pantheon Resources

2022 well test results review
BFF Talitha Theta West
Test zone 30ft 30ft
Depth ~9,200ft ~7,800ft
Rate 73 bopd 57 bopd
Crude 35-39API 35-39API

Source: Pantheon Resources

[bulltradept] 25/4/2022 07:49

Certainly looks promising..

[tmmalik] 25/4/2022 07:39

As expected ,good Res upgrade. Agree share price should touch new high by tomorrow if not today .Those talking about mute market reaction will get better confidence now and after tomorrow session .question ,where share price stable till July work starts ?I am expecting share price will re-rate in next couple of weeks Little consolidation period then pick again when July work date announced .Your contribution always appreciated scot

[scot126] 25/4/2022 07:37

Canaccord TP moves to 280p. More to follow.

[phsarkandalpp] 25/4/2022 07:30

Can't wait for pro_S2009 to tell us how much the RNS has disappointed him and how clever he was that he sold out profitably at - what was it? - 35p or 40p while we poor mugs held on and on and on, hoping for better things that would never come, and won't come now.

[hiddendepths] 25/4/2022 07:28

In time, the 10% recovery will probably turn into 70% plus but we'll all be spinning in our graves before the official figures get that high! Also, the chances of the 17.8bn barrels OIP growing substantially are around 80% based on my past experience.

[sirmark] 25/4/2022 07:28

And there she is :)