Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[officerdigby] 29/3/2022 11:34

88E down plug hole.

No gloat, sorry for them.

Expect just a small share price correlated hit for a weee while here...

Just the way of things.

[olderwiser2] 29/3/2022 11:31

It is the realm of speculative misinterpretation to compare a completed test with one that has only been described as commenced.

"Testing of the Lower Basin Floor Fan ("LBFF") at the Theta West #1 location has commenced"

Talitha
"The Company is pleased to announce that testing operations have now been completed on the Lower Basin Floor Fan"

[ngms27] 29/3/2022 11:29

gorgeousgeorge01, I agree entirely :)

[gorgeousgeorge01] 29/3/2022 11:11

"So from here it's either the skies the limit or kaput if the play doesn't work."

Wasn't it ever thus? Sometimes you have to take a profit whilst it's there. Why wait for a speculative outcome when the market gives you a meaningful real return in the meantime? Happy days.

[ngms27] 29/3/2022 11:05

I'm afraid I'm with Pro. There is very material downside risk UNTIL PANR can prove commercial flow rates.

The problem I have is that I cannot see a JV/Sell out until commercial flow rates are proven.

One expert I've spoken too is adamant that long reach horizontals / highly deviated wells multi-stage fracked in thinly bedded sands may likely prove sub commercial.

So from here it's either the skies the limit or kaput if the play doesn't work.

[pro_s2009] 29/3/2022 11:02

PoS, the point being, the Bond Holder will be looking at this and saying "better get a load of this converted before they do Alkaid, just in case".........

Which means potentially a lot of 78p shares coming on to then market in the months ahead before Alkaid.

So I dont see the share price rising, more than likely falling ahead in April and May.

End of the day, there is now a non-commercial discovery at Theta West, a non-commercial discovery at Talitha - and now, if Alkaid were to screw up the horizontal....you would have another non-commercial discovery - and that would hammer the share price down and down.

So the risk is to the downside, for now imo.........that may change with success at Alkaid in the summer.

[gorgeousgeorge01] 29/3/2022 11:02

"But if either of TW or the SMD had delivered results people here expected then the share price would likely be £2+ as opposed to trying to cling onto £1.20."

Isn't it our own expectations, divorced from reality, that always disappoint?

Make no mistake about it, Theta West was a fantastic result and confirmation of the geological model. The share price remains above my expectations and was a very profitable outcome for many of us.

[rabito79] 29/3/2022 11:01

Of course technically this year there is not an off season

[rabito79] 29/3/2022 11:01

Depends what you mean my big pay day. I think clarity regards Theta West and some promotion can get us to £2. Similar to off season rise last year. Alkaid and SMD can push on and a further drilling season can get the big pay day. Dusk listing could help out also. The higher numbers where always going to require further appraisal.The board, who have all the data, think there geological model has been proven. Therefore the associated risks in getting to the big pay day have reduced significantly, not disappeared but certainly reduced.

[probabilityofsuccess] 29/3/2022 10:58

That’s why he used the word ‘comparatively’ Pro. Balance of risk:reward, based on your numbers, is good. When you get back in, I’m sure you’ll agree 😉

[pro_s2009] 29/3/2022 10:51

Trouble is.....the downside risk is very real.

What happens if the SMD at Alkaid blocks up in the summer, and the horizontal well fails to flow at commercial rates ?

Share price 50p or 30p ? Very possible.

So dont say the downside risk is not there, it very much is there.

[dhb368] 29/3/2022 10:37

ngms, what do you call a big payday? I expect that any jv/farmout news will see those not onboard miss the boat.

From here the risk is to the upside. To hold into the season at 80p, but feel nervous now strikes me as odd.

I will hold now on the basis that I will make 3-4x what I could make if I bought in after JV news with little downside risk comparatively.

[echoridge] 29/3/2022 10:29

Parker - he can, and probably (always) is - looking to upgrade from Canaccord, but as I said, tragically, they are kind of the best in class. In other words, they all suck so the Company needs to continue to focus on its webinars and other 'DIY' efforts because I'm afraid that on the third leg of a broker's main jobs - promotion of their clients' shares in the secondary market - Canaccord has also proved to be an epic fail. I'm afraid that is the state of play generally these days for all but the major market cap companies....

[probabilityofsuccess] 29/3/2022 10:11

Ngms - I agree, but I’m not sure that many of the investors holding out for the end game thought otherwise? To get maximum value, it was always the case that production wells going onto long term testing had to be drilled. There’s a bid scenario sooner, but that wouldn't maximise value in my view.

Do you disagree?

[ngms27] 29/3/2022 10:03

Rabito79, do you also agree then that it's unlikely that us shareholders will get the big payday until after next Winters testing?

[parker2102] 29/3/2022 09:51

Echoridge: excellent post, thank you.
But what action should Justin (as a former Aussie broker he certainly will be aware of this situation, better than all of us) take? Or is he taking?

[rabito79] 29/3/2022 09:44

My assumption is there will be more testing next winter, I don't think this is a contentious point.

[ngms27] 29/3/2022 09:35

Sure we don't know total fluids, nor did we with Talitha. Note I also did hint that Theta West ultimately may produce larger volumes.

Ultimately it all comes down to whether one of the five possible suitors now wants a piece of the action or whether further de-risking by the drilling of test producers next Winter is required. It's my measured opinion they are.

[rabito79] 29/3/2022 09:27

You don't know the flow rate, you just know the oil rate. You might not be comparing apples with apples.

[ngms27] 29/3/2022 09:20

Rabito79, its not theoreticals that count. It's the hard and fast numbers. i.e. sustained flow rates.

Remember in poor or cemented reservoirs, returns may vary by location...

[rabito79] 29/3/2022 09:15

Ngms, how much water was put down in each of the frac packages? How did the frac packages return volumes compare between Talitha and Theta West? What are the overall productivity implications of the above?Answer - you don't know, you don't have the this data point or numerous other data points.You might get lucky (or unlucky if still invested) and be correct. But let's be clear it's got everything to do with luck and nothing to do with a considered technical evaluation. It's one number higher, one number lower and you are running with it.

[echoridge] 29/3/2022 09:06

It was objectively ridiculous of the Canaccord analyst to admit that the TW test drill results 'maintain the good progress from Talitha' and go some way to 'de-risk' the entire value proposition and then NOT increase his price target. Borderline unprofessional in fact. However.....1. Canaccord's analyst is in his late 60s and is notoriously difficult to excite in his golden years. In fact, pretty much every report Canaccord have ever written on Pantheon has been conspicuously and I believe, intentionally, overly conservative; In addition, 2. In their other main broker function, fundraising, Canaccord have likewise been useless (at least relative to their reputation within the resource space generally) as the Company along with some prominent shareholders have pretty much closed both of the last two raises by themselves, including of course the most recent transformational one, without much help at all from Canaccord; However: 3. Broker research is decidedly NOT 'PR'. At a major broker-dealer like Canaccord - useless as they have been for PANR, Canaccord are a major name in the space like it or not - research is largely hands-off and though Justin, et al may well have complained vigorously about the almost intentionally conservative report, Canaccord have the final say. And finally: 4. Shareholders should know and understand well the previous 3 points by now, and thus not spending time shaking their fists ignorantly at Pantheon's 'poor PR'.

[ngms27] 29/3/2022 08:59

For me the points of reference are:

1) Alkaid flowed more from a 6ft perf than Theta West in a proximal / optimal location despite three 10ft perfs at Theta West.

2) Theta West (to date) LBFF flowed > 100bopd but was flowing 59bopd when the blizzard hit. Talitha LBFF when testing completed was flowing at a sustained rate of 40bopd from similar perfs/stimulation. So Theta West to date isn't much better DESPITE being in a proximal / optimal location

3) Forget pre drill expectations as they were set falsely low as I for one commented on prior to testing. The pre drill expectations were at odds from the webinar presentations. It's my opinion that Theta West given expectations should flow multiples of Talitha LBFF following comments from management. To date it hasn't.

This all suggests that Theta West has very large OIIP but may not be commercially extractable with current technology. The tone from management in the webinar's suggested this would be a slam dunk (especially if it flowed at Talitha) whereas to date it's been a slap in the face.

All in my opinion of course.

[rabito79] 29/3/2022 08:58

Johnswan the fact you have been given one data point (flow rate) and ignored the experts qualifications of that data point also says a lot. I can only assume you think you are better placed to interpret the data than the BOD. Not surprising since you have accused the BOD of making 'baseless' resource upgrades.It's a shame you don't follow your own guidance regards working with hard data.I am looking forward to the Webinar and fully expect the board to give more granularity on their conclusions.

[forwood] 29/3/2022 08:53

What we need is a clear statement of what they're going to do now. It was the ambiguity in the last RNS that turned the share price downward in my view, suggesting the possibility that testing was over for this season.