Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[marshytom] 25/3/2022 13:35

Thanks NGMS. If we take your scenario that this reservoir is equal to shale oil in terms of economics. I believe shale oil is commercial at $54+ per barrel so with oil well in excess of $100+ per barrel, advantages of being close to taps and the essential need for domestic oil production surely this field will be developed given the vast quantity of oil in place?

[highly geared] 25/3/2022 13:26

The next 2 weeks remains cold, so likely 3 weeks of time until they demobilise and move off sites. So, plenty of time to complete the LBFF at Theta West. I doubt whether there will be time to return to Talitha to relook at the SMD but you never know. I suspect they want to test the LBFF as long as possible to obtain best results/data.

[ngms27] 25/3/2022 13:23

Think in terms that water flows prefentially to oil and that fracking fluids are generally over 98% water.Therefore it's still possible we may see stabilised flows above 100 bopd.However given Talitha and given management's comments about this being much better reservoir being proximal rather than distal it doesn't add up and suggests poor reservoir quality throughout.This is akin to a shale play, highly capital intensive with thousands of wells likely required.

[marshytom] 25/3/2022 13:17

Given the blizzard is forecast to end this weekend surely Pantheon will have time to finish LBBF flow test? They state only 40% of testing fluid has been recovered and that ultimate flow is better assessed when more testing fluid has been returned. Question for the engineers, once oil has started flowing does the rate normally increase in line with amount of testing fluid returned and if so approximately what % improvement could we expect on the current average of 57bpd. In terms of potential development scenarios for Theta West, based on the current test rate a 30ft section of horizontal appraisal well flows @ 57bpd so 1 ft = 1.9 bpd. Pantheon are proposing to develop 10,000ft laterals although assume it will be more of a diagonal to maximise contact across 950ft reservoir thickness in LBFF at Theta West. Therefore would this not suggest a maximum potential flush flow rate of 10,000ft x 1.9bpd = 19,000bdp per development well. I accept this is the most optimistic case and reservoir quality will vary but anything from 10% of this total upwards would seem to be commercially attractive.

[madd_rip] 25/3/2022 12:43

Let's hope.

[mlf51] 25/3/2022 12:42

I preferred it when you were refrained, any chance ?

[total return] 25/3/2022 12:24

Thanks folks; I have enjoyed the reflective discourse from some about the risk/reward for PANR holders from here.Some posters have been in from before the lofty highs of 2016 (hopefully soon to be easily surpassed) and others (I am one), who spotted the opportunity in 2018/19 when the shares were languishing at 20p and below.

My tuppence worth:

Macro picture:25 years ago the Tobacco sector was persona non grata. Tobacco shares subsequently had a huge multi-year run as demand for the addictive smokes continued to rise (I met a BAT exec in the late 90's and he said that half the worlds smokers at the time had to smoke with their heads back to stop the tobacco dropping out of their roll-ups). Oil & Gas is now similarly hated due to the green lobby and save the planet stuff but demand is still rising and will continue to do so at least until the 2030's. Those entities able to supply this demand will see investment support especially for companies in safe geographies. (I view PANR's licence acreage in Alaska as about as secure as you can get for investors where over 50% of the State's income comes from Oil taxes and royalties.Governor Dunleavy seems to be doing a good job for the sector.)

Market issues: The mkt cap of Pantheon was well under £100 million when I first got involved. Too small for funds and most HNW investors but a wonderful playground for traders and rampers who can typically easily manipulate the share price as marginal players. The sale of a million shares then would have taken days to unwind and offloading multiple 25k's would have spooked the MMs in a matter of minutes. Thus little liquidity then.

Today the market cap is around $1.4bn, investment funds are increasingly warming to the story (a few are getting invested-see Scot's comments over the months), liquidity is massively improved and we have a much clearer idea of where our oil assets are located and the extent of these. New eyes (and that is globally) are starting to look at this company and there is a huge danger of missing a huge-rerating of the shares by bailing out now. Globally there are very few investible E&P shares out there with the quantum of hydrocarbon assets that PANR clearly has. Fund managers are still underweight this sector which has IMHO still years to run. (Over the years I have personally witnessed many small caps have a good run but the biggest returns have been seen when the mid and big cap brigade see the great investment potential.)

Yes the risks of commerciality still remain but as someone posted earlier, the much improved extraction technology that now exists is likely to mean that we WILL have production in due course and not just from Alkaid.

[k1ngkonggb] 25/3/2022 12:10

So you've sold out, ngms?

[ngms27] 25/3/2022 12:06

I've refrained from posting anything tangible here for a while now. My personal opinion is that now it's obvious PANR need a buyer with very deep pockets, not only to buy the acreage but also develop it.

It's again my opinion that whilst there is lots of OIIP getting it out of the ground is going to be problem as it's now clear that the reservoirs here are poorer than any others developed on the North Slope.

Whether anyone with £20 billion to spare will bite is the question. It's a small pond and most are divesting from Oil and Gas. Therefore on the balance of probabilities one has to accept that these reservoirs may never be commercially exploited and therefore the current value of PANR is pie in the sky.

It might also mean that PANR has to further fundraise to have a early production system for the BFF put in place, if that's even financially viable?

[tizo100] 25/3/2022 11:53

Same one is on twitter above

[tizo100] 25/3/2022 11:44

Tried copying a very good link from Reddit but it wont let me upload the link

[jontyfromsa] 25/3/2022 11:40

Nailed it Rabido. The market has got this COMPLETELY wrong IMO. No difference to this time a year ago.

[simon_64] 25/3/2022 11:33

Yes agreed would not take much buying for this to fly.

[rideacockhorse] 25/3/2022 11:29

One of the most frightening positions to be in in today's market would be short PANR. FACT.

[senttothegallows] 25/3/2022 11:11

Surely one of the big boys will just rip the oil out of Alaska 12 month year round drilling this is set up for a major IMHO

[dan de lion] 25/3/2022 10:47

there is without doubt vast quantities of oil present in PANR`s area, oil that Alaska and the USA are desperate to get their hands on, oil that WILL be extracted by the use of the full range of modern techniques available to the oil industry for just this situation.

IMHO

[johnswan193] 25/3/2022 10:43

Rabito - I can completely see that case. They will have gathered so much information, which I expect once revealed present a much more convincing and positive outcome, just as it did with Talitha. Given the existence of oil is now proven at the TW location this is a huge positive, so its now just down to whether it can be commercially extracted. If it can be then the potential is enormous. I was expecting and hoping for something more conclusive and position size was with a view to an exit this year, but understand others may be more patient (and I am also prepared to be patient, but at a reduced level). The £3-£5+ exit point is still there as a possibility, but not without a lot more work, time and money imo.

[rabito79] 25/3/2022 10:31

Come on John let's have an argument. I posted this on another board so might as well share here.To me this is a very similar situation to last years conclusion of operations at Talitha. The company saying success and the market shrugging it off. I added yesterday, like I did last year, having considered the messaging from the board and the input of more knowledgable posters. I expect a few days of questioning myself as the market finds its feet and then the webinar and possible upgrades to be the catalyst to further upside. The geological model remains intact and further derisked,

[chris0805] 25/3/2022 10:29

Definitely one of your better posts johnswan193.

[evilblues] 25/3/2022 10:25

When's the webinar? TIA

[johnswan193] 25/3/2022 10:22

For transparency purposes, I have derisked a fair bit today/yesterday, reducing my position to around 60% of what it was.

For me, and perhaps with overly optimistic or unrealistic expectations for this drill season:

- Very happy with the BFF and SFS results at Talitha.
- Concerned about the issues encountered with the SMD.
- Disappointed with the outcome at TW where I was expecting much improved flow rates.
- Webinars set very high expectations and confidence levels, but - in my view - lower expectations are then set when it comes to key periods or where results are compared against prior expectations. This is important for PR, however if I am left a little disappointed I don't know how management and other shareholders can feel ecstatic.

I accept with SMD the blockage may just be unfortunate and not in any way related to potential of the zone. However, risk of failure here increases significantly for me.

I accept with TW that the testing could not be fully completed, and doing so may have resulted in a much more impressive outcome.

The webinar will be really interesting and very good chance this excites the market, as has been the case in the past.

Potential to multi-bag still remains, but overall I was too overweight to Panr relative to my personal current view of risk, and other opportunities exist elsewhere that I have been looking to take advantage of. Time for me to realise some of those gains and lock in a guaranteed profit.

Either way, whether I have sold some or all of my holdings, I'm not going to argue with anybody who wishes to take an alternative view.

Given Panr still represents a large investment in my portfolio I want nothing more than for it to succeed.

Decision to reduce is not in any way influenced by expectations for price to reduce in order to buy back later.

I could see price settling at anywhere from 100p to 180p between now and after the webinar / next operations.

[bigwavedave] 25/3/2022 10:01

I was not alone yesterday when I thought the PANR update would take us over the high of circa 145p. I am still of that view today.