Pantheon Resources Share Discussion Threads

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 12:06

Headline: IN BRIEF: Pantheon Resources executes contract for Alkaid well spud
Date/Time: 16/05/2022 19:34:04 ▼
Pantheon Resources PLC - London-based oil and gas company focused on Alaska - Executes contracts for a drill rig to drill the Alkaid-2 well, scheduled to spud in July.

If spudding is successful, Pantheon will start a long term production test and truck and sell the produced oil to a nearby North Slope facility.

The well has several objectives, including the appraisal of the shallower Shelf Margin Deltaic horizon, and the starting of a long-term production test of the Alkaid horizon.

In addition, Pantheon has received plan of operations approval from the state of Alaska on the Alkaid projects.

Current stock price: 132.16 pence

12-month change: up sharply from 30.75p

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going to be squeaky bum time.

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 11:55

Chartist's Prayer

May my actions be guided by the information in the chart
and not by someone's misguided comments that may be in their
interest and not mine.

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 11:42

I got an email last week from a trader who'd been in the market for over a decade.

Yet this person hadn't made anything to show for it.

Now, given that we've had one of the greatest bull market periods history has ever seen, I was surprised.

If you can't make money when stocks are going up - when will you?

In any case, I asked him to send over his trades so I could have a look and see what was going wrong.

He didn't do that but he did tell me the stocks he was holding - and it didn't take a genius to work out what the problem was.

He was utterly incapable of cutting his losses.

Rather than accept that the trade hadn't worked out, this trader would just grimly hold on.

And if the stock ever got back to breakeven - he'd sell in relief!

So basically, what we have here is a system where:

the wins are booked quickly, and
the losses are anything up to 100%.
Now I know that many will disagree with me here and say that averaging down is a good idea.

And if it works for you - great!

But this will kill you if you're a trader.

If you can't quantify your loss then you can't scale.

How can you if you're risking 100% per trade?

Not only can you not scale but you defy the laws of numbers.

At 25% down, you need to make 33%.
At 50% down, you need to make 100%.
At 75% down, you need to make 300%.
The first cut is always the cheapest.

If your ego can't handle being wrong this isn't the place for you.

You'll get humbled. Big style.

Trading is a performance sport.

And if you can't compete then you'll be weeded out.

The good news is that there is a simple system you can use to know when you should be selling.



It's the four stages of a stock.


The four stages of a stock
People say technical analysis doesn't work.

I say people who don't know how to use technical analysis effectively say it doesn't work.

If it didn't - it wouldn't be possible for people like me to consistently make a living from trading stocks based on chart decisions.

I'm definitely not the smartest guy in the room.

And I can't do all the fancy DCFs and metrics with complex spreadsheets that clever people use.

But the reality is stocks move in cycles.

Understanding these cycles can mean the difference between buying a stock at the right time and buying a stock before it falls -90%.

It's true that if you're a big institution you may want to be buying against the trend in order to get your fill.

But unless you wake up one morning and find that you're suddenly a multi-billion pound hedge fund (so far I have not), most PIs don't need to do this.

It's our biggest advantage against the suits. We have position agility.

That means being able to get in and out with relative ease and timing stocks at the opportune moments.

There are only ever four stages and once you know how these work it will immediately improve your P&L overnight.

I'm sure of it.

Stage 1
Stage 1 is the accumulation zone.

This is where we see stocks trend sideways.

This stage can take weeks, months, or even years.

It's a phase where the market is indecisive and neither the bulls nor the bears have the advantage.

I don't believe in buying stage 1 bases because:

you could be waiting a long time for stage 2, and
the stock may never actually move into a stage 2 uptrend
However, I have taken positions in stage 1 bases before where I believe the reward significantly outweighs the risk and I'll struggle to get the liquidity.

This is not something I do often. But sometimes you have to break the rules.

An example of this was my trade in YU. last year.


I was buying YU. because it kept putting out good news yet the stock wasn't moving.

The price also wasn't falling, so I took the opportunity to scale in a few in.

When the news came that the stock was performing ahead of expectations (not a surprise to those who had done the research) I bought more but liquidity was thin, as we can see the stock pressed into the 200s that day.

Naturally, I sold far too early.

But because I took more risk early in the trade where I believed I had an informational edge - it paid off and I bagged the stock from my first buys.

That said, the risk did exist that I could've been waiting for some time.

If you're going to buy stage 1 stocks where you believe you have an edge - you need to be prepared with patience.

Stage 2
Stage 2 is the advancing stage and this is where you should be doing your buying.

Stage 2 stocks are easy to identify: the price is trending upwards.

Volumes will be higher on up days and lighter on down days.

The price will be above most of the moving averages (MAs) and most of these MAs will be pointing upwards.

Lots of people have a fetish for buying downtrending stocks.

I can't work out why this is.

Personally, I want my stocks to go up and increase my wealth. But that's just me!

Look for stage 2 stocks that have built a sideways base and look to buy the breakout of that base.



I could be wrong though. This is why risk management is so important.

My goal as a trader is to play stage 2 breakouts repeatedly.

Over time, and by position sizing to allow my edge to play out, I'll be profitable in the long run.

So far - it's a working strategy you can follow.

Stage 3
Stage 3 is the distribution phase.

This is where institutions and those early in the move are now unwinding positions and banking profits.

Stage 3 stocks are characterised by rolling tops and sideways trends.

Sometimes, it can be easy to mistake a stage 3 stock for a stage 2 base.

You need to look out for big volume down days - signs people are taking advantage of liquidity to sell.

I highlighted Burford Capital as a stage 3 stock on the Investors' Chronicle podcast.

It hadn't made a new high in a year.

And every time it announced great results it sold off heavily on big volume

For these reasons, I said the stock was a short if it broke support at 1400p.

Within a week, it was down -80% as Muddy Waters had been shorting it and published a note.

Now, this was of course impossible for me to know.

But the chart gave ample warning signs that being long had its risks.

Those who knew how to understand the four stages kept their profits from this stock.

Stage 4
Stage 4 is the capitulation stage.

It's when the rot sets in and the downtrend is in place.

Buying (and holding) stage 4 stocks is where plenty of people lose money.

Think about it: buying a stage 4 downtrend is a gamble that the stock will turn around the moment you buy it.

And if you're into gambling - close down your account and hit the casino instead. They'll even give you free drinks to help relieve you of your hard-earned!

In a stage 4 stock, all of the moving averages will be trending downwards.

Volumes will be increased on down days and lighter on up days.

Lots of people like to justify holding these stocks by saying "you haven't lost until you've sold".

Really?

So if you bought Capita at 800p in 2015...

And you're holding it seven years later at 21p...

You haven't actually lost?

Even though you're down -97%?

Even though you've missed out on seven years of a bull market because your ego couldn't handle being wrong?

If you want to keep telling yourself that, well, I've got a bridge to sell you.




The reality is holding onto stage 4 stocks is dangerous for your wealth.

Don't allow small losses to become big losses.

It ruins accounts and sadly even ruins lives.

Open your account right now, and see if you can stop a stage 4 stock.

And ask yourself honestly: why am I even holding this?

These are the stocks you should be shorting.

Swinging at stage 4 downtrends is a shorter's bread and butter.

M Taylor

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 11:34

it appears u are looking at the chart thru rose tinted specs.

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 11:32

Yep, apart from Medvedev not being either an analyst or
unbiased that's what how a bboard should work.

[probabilityofsuccess] 05/7/2022 11:27

For balance (😉):

Russia's Medvedev says oil could top $300 – $400 if Japan's price cap idea implemented

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 11:03

swendab1

I like it here, tks for the heads up though.
Here's a positive. it was once valued at over
a billion pounds, yep a billion, although it
no longer is.

[devereaux4] 05/7/2022 10:57

swendab1
Please give insttructions on how to find the coin and how to join the Guild
I am new to this guild business
Devereaux

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 10:57

There seems to be some perverse human characteristic that likes to make easy things difficult.
WB

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 10:55

not going too well for read the good news only a disaster for
anyone who did and bought near the top.

[ctrader3] 05/7/2022 10:47

An early literary citing of "shooting the messenger" is in Plutarch's Lives: "The first messenger, that gave notice of Lucullus' coming was so far from pleasing Tigranes that, he had his head cut off for his pains; and no man dared to bring further information. Without any intelligence at all, Tigranes sat while war was already blazing around him, giving ear only to those who flattered him"

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or join the guild.

[art1942] 05/7/2022 10:07

22:49 Please send me a plus coin as I would like to joinn the Guild Thanks

[devereaux4] 04/7/2022 22:49

Please send me a plus coin as I would like to joinn the Guild
Thanks