Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[gareth jones] 25/12/2022 11:54

Happy Christmas to all the faithful who frequent these boards. May you all get what you deserve in 2023. The futures bright… Nadolig Llawen.

[harry s truman] 23/12/2022 20:50

There are a lot of good sorts here blinddarts, including yourself, but like you I agree our thoughts should be for the coming year now. I seem to remember an Oscar Wilde quote about putting an ill received letter behind him...

It's a bizarre state of affairs when we can close the year on a 3 month high but also a near 75% drop from our high in 2021. I'm honestly struggling to remember a similar fall from grace on so little bad news. Most news articles now seem to agree that this was massively overdone (the biotech post covid crash), but I can come up with hindsight genius like that and much cheaper.

We have a week left of the OXB financial year now and then Stuart will close the books and do whatever else happens before they go off to the auditors.

So for 2022 there was a big charge in H1 for the Homology JV in Boston, leading to a H1 loss and Stuart said that H2 would be more or less breakeven, so we know that our full year results (end of March) will be a full year loss somewhere around the figure it was for H1 - less than £20m seems a safe guess.

Of more interest to me now is 2023. I have it in mind that when they gave us the slideshows for the Homology deal, they were talking a high double digit loss this year, then a single digit loss next year (i.e. the up front one off costs for Boston don't repeat). But since the close of H1 this year, OXB have added:-

21/07/2022 - Expanded Agreement with BMS’s Juno in CAR-T
26/07/2022 - Licence & Supply Agreement with New LV Partner
26/07/2022 - New Project with Orchard Therapeutics
07/09/2022 - Licence & Supply Agreement with New LV Partner
14/09/2022 - Oxford Biomedica Solutions signs with new partner for AAV
14/12/2022 - Oxford Biomedica Solutions signs with 3 new partners for AAV

So my thought for the new year would be to ponder if all that together (which is 8 items really - with 3 announced together in the last RNS) is worth £8m (or more).

If they are (and I'm thinking that's not an unreasonable expectation but have no way to check) then OXB are in a much better shape now than when 2023 was forecast as being a small loss. Could it be breakeven for the whole group as early as next year?

If more small contracts continue to come in at a similar rate?

If we do get the malaria work (which the WHO wants security of supply on)?

OXB has been kicked, beaten, knocked down and stamped on this year, but they end it with 7 working production suites in the UK. A new fill and finish suite now too and of course the facilities in Boston.

If the work continues to come in (and I believe we saw an indication of that in the last RNS) then Big Frank is going to take the reigns of a company with potential to earn an awful lot of money.

[blinddarts] 23/12/2022 19:40

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all.Thanks to all the regular contributors, particularly Harry and Marcus to name but two.Let's hope 2023 is a better year for OXB, well a better year in general !!!

[harry s truman] 22/12/2022 20:58

I can't find the link now (or even remember it word for word) but there was a Bloomberg story this morning that a handful of large pharma companies now have war chests which total around half a trillion and this is likely to mean a M&A boom next year amongst smaller companies within the sector which have been savaged by the biotech winter.

It certainly seems possible to me that anyone following a similar line of thought would see OXB's share price bloodbath on expansion and best ever results qualifying as a candidate for picking up on the cheap.

Most of us live in some kind of hope that our large shareholders are our insurance against that happening except under very friendly terms (i.e. an unlikely multiple) but you never know.

My happy thought for the day would be that I can't foresee a scenario here where 2023 is a worse year for us than the one closing.

I may simply not have seen any, but the criticism of OXB buying an expensive pup seemed to go away after the first deal, and now with 4 new plus the captive homology work is basically non-existent?

[strapittoyourankle] 22/12/2022 13:53

Tuco - you are too loud!

[tuco 1] 22/12/2022 12:02

Ssssssshhhhh....
Not a whisper .


Tuco.

[marcusl2] 21/12/2022 15:56

Just noticed icejelly

Stuart Paynter, Chief Financial Officer, will present at the 41(st) Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference in San Francisco, California on Wednesday, 11 January 2023 at 4.30pm PT. The presentation will be available on the Oxford Biomedica website after the conference

[icejelly] 21/12/2022 12:06

And to J P Morgan

[marcusl2] 21/12/2022 11:06

Jason Slingsby, Chief Business & Corporate Development Officer, Oxford Biomedica

With a panel of industry experts, editor Dan Stanton will discuss recent M&A in the bioprocess space, bottlenecks within the manufacturing sector, the continued head- and tailwinds COVID-19 is placing on the sector, and the evolution of the cell and gene therapy landscape and what that means for the wider supply chains.

[marcusl2] 21/12/2022 09:24

It will all become quicker and cheaper. In-vivo is the big change I reckon.

[harry s truman] 20/12/2022 23:41

Interesting story in the FT today about biotech in general, but particularly a company which has an interest in local CAR-T processing.

(quote)

Galapagos bought Cellpoint, which has worked with Swiss manufacturer Lonza to create small incubators that allow the cells to be manufactured in hospitals, rather than shipped to another site, and AboundBio, which will help it source new candidates for next generation CAR-Ts, for a combined €239mn.

(unquote)



We of course don't do any processing for Novartis, with our contract being to supply them with the vector for processing which I believe they do centrally at Grand Rapids in Michigan.

If it becomes commonplace for each big cancer hospital to have its own CAR-T processing lab, then surely that will in turn require many more separate supply contracts for the vector? Unless of course this is for trial work only?

[harry s truman] 20/12/2022 18:19

I wouldn't have thought that Carl was short of money, but him, Bruce Levine and the others deserve some financial reward for what they pioneered and hopefully they will all get to enjoy it for a long time.

[marcusl2] 20/12/2022 14:35

I see Kite/Gilead has bought Carl June.

[gareth jones] 20/12/2022 13:29

Time for US to wake up?

[marcusl2] 19/12/2022 22:29

No, maybe £370 would be ok if it was for a Viagra trial. Awkward if you had to get the bus home though.

[harry s truman] 19/12/2022 20:16

God bless the people who do it Marcus, and where would we be without them, but £370 isn't really a lot of money to be a guinea pig in a toxicology trial is it?

[marcusl2] 19/12/2022 16:06

H,


£370



Strengths and limitations of this study
This is the first large-scale trial designed to measure effectiveness of a two-dose Ebola vaccine through open label delivery to general populations in an Ebola-affected area.
This is the first clinical trial to administer this vaccine regimen to pregnant women.
The pragmatic design facilitated trial delivery during an active Ebola epidemic where the future location of new cases is uncertain.
A test-negative case-control analysis to estimate vaccine effectiveness in a situation where a randomised controlled trial with a control arm was not possible.
A non-randomised design is a limitation of this study.

[harry s truman] 19/12/2022 14:14

Are you thinking ours? Sii have massive campuses in India I think.


Plutonian19 Dec '22 - 14:02 - 4417 of 4418

I see SII and Jenner are rightly taking the credit for Ebola vaccine. But whose GMP manufacturing facility did they use?

[harry s truman] 19/12/2022 14:12

Marcus,

I wonder how they do a trial with something as horrible as Ebola?

I'm guessing everybody will be in the treated arm, but there must be some way to determine who would normally have contracted it - but didn't because of the vaccine?

40k doses (even if there are multiple boosters) must be mass vaccinations rather than just front line workers, yet I thought you only caught Ebola from the bodily fluids of someone who was haemorrhaging.

Will be interesting to see.

Also interesting will be if we can make £5 by Christmas on the back of the 3 new AAV deals. Judging by the performance today so far I would say that's a possibility.

[plutonian] 19/12/2022 14:02

I see SII and Jenner are rightly taking the credit for Ebola vaccine. But whose GMP manufacturing facility did they use?

[harry s truman] 19/12/2022 13:54

Plutonian / trovax,

Thanks to both of you for that. If it was just something procedural (and it looks that way) rather than shenanigans by people in dark glasses then I'm happy with that.

[trovax] 19/12/2022 10:43

Harry, I can't find anything specific for this quarter 4... but for quarter 3 is as below... so referring to your linked document, look at the last date (December 19th) - that's the relevant date... the day before is the setting of the books (I.e. last Friday)"How it WorksThe changes are based on companies' closing values on August 30. Changes are implemented at the close of business on Friday September 16, and take effect from the start of trading on Monday, September 19. It's a quarterly event and the last reshuffle reflected the fallout from the Russian invasion and sanctions on London listed companies

[plutonian] 19/12/2022 09:00

Harry, in that document...

7.0 Rebalance Effective Date
The FTSE UK Index Series is reviewed on a quarterly basis in March, June, September and December.
Any constituent changes will be implemented after the close of business on the third Friday of the review month (i.e. effective Monday)

I don't see why it should affect us. However, as trovax says, the same thing happened in June.

[harry s truman] 18/12/2022 19:57

Trovax,

It was the end of November and the next one is the end of February.

I looked at the date table just now

And couldn't imagine how Friday 16th of December would relate to any of those.

The week before Christmas is usually very quiet. If it's not then maybe there is something going on.