Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 06/10/2022 11:02

There a couple of factors at play here Sean, one being that most people just live in today (so what happened on the 17th March 2020 is now like ancient history for them now), whilst the second is that most people will swallow anything if it comes from the official channels.

So when all the news channels said masks didn't work and it was pointless wearing one, then people didn't and most were happy to carry on with life. When all the news channels did a complete 180 in response to a government request, we all had to wear one. In a rational world of independent thought nobody would accept that.

When they shut the country down the oil price actually went negative for a while. You can't just stop these facilities and so for a short while the oil companies had to pay people to take their product - literally nowhere to store it.

Reinstating production was a slow and expensive process and at the same time as companies who had been shafted once were being urged to do more, the same politicians who caused the problem by shutting the country down were talking about windfall taxes on greedy oil companies.

Then we blamed the price of diesel on the Ukraine and everybody believed it.

If you doubt that then look at prices in a virtually energy independent USA.

[dominiccummings] 06/10/2022 10:50

It's the cost of 24 x 7 worldwide TV 'News' seanje.

[seanje] 06/10/2022 10:46

I couldnt agree with you more Harry. I remember at the time thinking how surreal it was that the entire world had come to a stop. In countries all across the planet the streets were deserted. In some cases for over a year. I remember also thinking we are going to pay for this for a very long time, maybe the rest of my life. Everybody seems to have forgotten this and that seems to me to be even more bizarre.

[harry s truman] 06/10/2022 10:37

I realise that this is not a great time in the world full stop. It's unfortunate but a good lump of our national gloom is down to the £410bn spending in response to a nasty infection and people clapped it in.

I'm sorry for those who were clueless as to what such a huge amount of printed money would mean, but they are seeing it in the supermarkets each week now whilst most of the culprits are desperately trying to blame this on the Ukraine.

But we are here for OXB and I would remind everybody that OXB has yet to issue a trading statement or profit warning, which would have been a legal requirement long ago had anything Badger or his many aliases spouted been true.

There were a lot of one off costs in H1 associated with the Boston subdivision which has already gained its first outside contract (see RNS list above).

Those are not reoccurring costs. The working cash to carry Boston to profit is already sunk / factored in.

For those of a particularly nervous disposition who can't countenance the Boston venture and think it will bring OXB down, I'd remind them that Boston is a joint venture LLC and can't.

But it won't and the fact that AZ have just paid a 6x multiple to buy their own AAV business should reassure even the most worried about that.

I watched 9 bot trades in just under 2 minutes this morning trying to work the price on no volume, at which point they seemed to give up.

When you can move the price 8p with a trade of £500 then it should be obvious to everyone what will happen when Serum tell the world their plans for the bioreactor they have reserved.

Remember they told us that H2 would be very close to breakeven in the presentation. A good deal in the last quarter could easily tip that into profit before tax and such.

I don't think that the average shareholder appreciates yet just how much money OXB is lining up to make.

Because of the way that any company like this works (give nothing away to the competitors / give no negotiating points to new customers) we never say what a bioreactor can earn, with the exception being the one off coronavirus work where they listed it separately in the results.

So we can take a guess at the time period, the number of bioreactors (3 at peak on AZ work) and of course they told us the money, which resulted in the "windfall" (Roch's words) of wasn't it £48m bottom line? Where the board decided that we were going into AAV.

So the AZ windfall + new shares + a short term credit line gave us 80% of the joint LLC company in Boston which came with some guaranteed work for Homology + 1 new contract so far.

Remember that windfall from AZ (a huge sum for us in return for over 100m doses) was earned at less than commercial rates.

i.e. not at our usual margin. Let that one sink in and ponder what those same bioreactors will be earning one day at our commercial rates.

Meanwhile the world still turns. The Times still prints what it likes and nobody at OXB has yet mentioned anything of the redundancies in the Times article.

[harry s truman] 06/10/2022 10:07

And a repeat of my Q4 predictions for the entertainment of others:-

Firm

RNS - sale and leaseback £50m+
RNS - short term loan to something else.
RNS - new deal (x3)

Possibility

RNS - malaria vaccine long term production and supply agreement (but maybe 2023)

[harry s truman] 06/10/2022 10:06

Yet another update on my running wishlist:-

1) News from AZ re covid vaccine (Roch said when not if) - DELIVERED 1st July 2022.

2) More LV deals for Oxford - DELIVERED (BMS deal expanded 21st July 2022). DELIVERED (new deal with up-front payment, confidential partner 26th July 2022). DELIVERED (new deal with up-front payment, confidential partner 7th September 2022).

3) New AAV deals for Boston (2 promised before year end by Roch at the full year results / Update - reiterated 16/08/2022). DELIVERED 1st new AAV development and supply contract 14th Sept 2022.

4) Whatever Serum are planning under this Memorandum of understanding signed with OXB about building their footprint in the UK as mentioned by Stuart? (We can probably guess vaccine work in OxBox but they need to say). UPDATE 13th August boss of SII says in press interview that OxBox can be used for vaccine work. UPDATE 15th September OXB confirm Serum has right of first refusal to the exclusive use of an under construction 2,000L bioreactor in the 2nd half of Oxbox. Exclusive use will require Serum Life Sciences to commit to a minimum contract value per year for up to ten years.

5) OXB / Novartis RNS (re need for more vector for CAR-T after approval in FL would be nice).

6) Partner the in-house CAR-T drug - OXB-302 Acute Myeloid Leukaemia (they are preparing for clinical trial which Roch said we are NOT! going to do ourselves so surely they must have somebody lined up).

7) Partner something re in vivo CAR-T (is this basically T-Charge?) / confirmation from Novartis that their T-Charge program uses Lentivector.

8) One of our liver drugs partnered OXB-40X/Y/Z (early stage but somebody might want to licence).

9) News from any of our partners who are in the clinic with our tech (vague I realise but you never know as we have a lot of partners). DELIVERED (Orchard deal for LentiStable 26th July 2022).

10) Relicense the PD drug as they say they have 2 companies waiting for the legal end with Sio (I'm think this won't be quick, but you never know).

[harry s truman] 06/10/2022 10:05

Quick reminder of revenue bearing news this year so far from the company of doom.

14/09/2022 - Oxford Biomedica Solutions signs with new partner for AAV

07/09/2022 - Licence & Supply Agreement with New LV Partner

26/07/2022 - New Project with Orchard Therapeutics

26/07/2022 - Licence & Supply Agreement with New LV Partner

21/07/2022 - Expanded Agreement with BMS’s Juno in CAR-T

01/07/2022 - Signs new agreement with AstraZeneca

05/01/2022 - Oxford Biomedica Agreement with Cabaletta Bio

[catch007] 05/10/2022 23:08

As the share price continues to fall I am not convinced our BB header is correct stating 'excellent condition' it seems to be a misnomer at present. The ejector seat seems uncomfortably close now! On a more serious note we do need to see some stability return to OXB and good news updates would be very welcome especially on the homology front to steady the market following the recent interims. Partner deals were very welcome in September however I feel we need a substantial deal now to shore up the balance sheet with a significant upfront payment. OXB also really needs to up its game now on the PR front and get its full potential out there in the market.

[dominiccummings] 05/10/2022 20:26

Thanks for your advice stocky.

[badger60] 05/10/2022 14:52

I post on OBD now and again.....

[badger60] 05/10/2022 14:51

drhousemanYep OBD another Diggle disaster.

[drhouseman] 05/10/2022 13:53

badger60,

Please watch OBD...it will be worse than OXB...Nice job on OXB...Unfortunately...OXB will only get worse...They cannot pull forward revenue back anymore and the idle Homology capacity will really start the negative leverage bite...

If you want to see real criminals in action...then watch OBD...Please...

[badger60] 05/10/2022 00:53

seanjeDiggle's " coiled spring" is a Slinky........it can only move in one direction....and that's down.....

[harry s truman] 04/10/2022 18:48

OK, I'll get my coat... ;)

[harry s truman] 04/10/2022 17:57

Let it be known that we shall forever remember the chart of today's price action as the curse of Pharaoh Tucokhamun the first.

In future years we will mark this day by walking like Egyptians from the valley of the coiled springs.

A less prestigious day than pancake day perhaps, but somewhere well above talk like a pirate day.

[badger60] 04/10/2022 16:02

#3994seanjeMug! You bought OXB because of Diggle's "coiled spring" analogy. Coco the clown's coiled spring with a red nose attached to the end of it being activated carries more bullish stock buying vibes than Diggle's drivel. Everyone should know that by now.........