Oxford Biomedica Share Discussion Threads

[harry s truman] 13/5/2022 08:33

Don't curse it Gareth, that's my job ;)

[gareth jones] 13/5/2022 08:16

I get the impression that market sentiment has changed since 13.08 yesterday. I may be wrong but the figures don’t lie!

[bountyhunter] 12/5/2022 21:49

I first mentioned the problem here at the start of the year in post 2074 (and have repeated since) - for that reason I sold out at around that time. I am surprised the drop has been as severe as it has been and may buy back at some point.

[harry s truman] 12/5/2022 20:24

That sounds very Zenlike bunlop.

At the risk of doing my stuck record party trick impression here again, all that we really need from OXB is some news flow to bring back a bit of positive sentiment.

My only real worry / concern is that we get nothing more now until the interims. I don't consider that a likely outcome, but we have gone long periods without news before and of course we have just had two very unusual years for the country which have only gone off the news because of a war.

[bunlop] 12/5/2022 19:55

You could market the chart since November as a black ski run. Soon be time to take the ski lift back up to the top or at least the mid station if you want to get out and have another ski back down first before getting back on the lift again.

[stocktastic] 12/5/2022 16:31

Why would a buyer fork out $1bn plus whwn they can get what they need via a licence?

A CMO could buy, but most would want to be buying positive earnings ... and that is the issue presently.
A CMO may have the sight to want to buy for longer term earnings, perhaps

[harry s truman] 12/5/2022 15:31

I'm pretty confident that you will be very pleased with that buy long term Gareth. Short term though...

[harry s truman] 12/5/2022 15:30

Good news for NHL sufferers there hopefully Marcus.

[plutonian] 12/5/2022 15:08

From the 2021 annual report, annual performance bonus objectives:
"The objective of establishing a partnership to enable
in vivo CAR-T platform development was met with
agreements signed with a biopharmaceutical
company (whose identity cannot be disclosed for
confidentiality reasons) and an academic partner
(whose identity cannot be disclosed for confidentiality
reasons)"

Sounds like we are quite well advanced on the commercial arrangements regarding in vivo CAR-T.

Harry, you keep writing "in vitro", when I am sure you intend "in vivo".

[gareth jones] 12/5/2022 14:50

I’ve found a few more Pennie’s behind the sofa and have tried to signal a change of direction to the market (in a very modest way).

[harry s truman] 12/5/2022 14:12

Gareth,

I've had that one in the old noggin box since you posted it and I've failed the test.

[harry s truman] 12/5/2022 14:05

There's not a lot any of us can do algernon, but I suppose it boils down once more to the small investor's holy trinity - Sell, Hold Fast or Buy More.

I keep hoping that all the small private investors who were going to be either frightened into selling or forced by circumstances to do it are basically done now, but every time I call that point it heads even further south. I guess the moral there is to stop calling the bottom.

On a couple of wet days recently I went through the presentations again (Boston purchase & full year results) and both really were very good.

We're living living through a very unfortunate sequence of events here, some of which are / were just bad luck and beyond OXB's control and some where they definitely could have done better, but we are going to be living with the "AZ Vaccine bad news" until OXB do something to get that from around our necks.

You've doubtless seen my list of what we can reasonably expect in terms of news flow from OXB. Basically this:-

Relicense the PD drug
Partner the in-house CAR-T drug (OXB-302 Acute Myeloid Leukaemia)
More LV deals for Oxford
New AAV deals for Boston
Whatever Serum are planning under this MoU
Novartis update re CAR-T approval in FL
Partner something re in vivo CAR-T / one of our liver drugs (OXB-40X)
News from any of our partners who are in the clinic with our tech
News from AZ

The timing with this is what will either boost the share price or leave it in the doldrums. Sooner rather than later obviously the preference there.

As I've said many times, I really want OXB to be a British blue chip. I've held for a long, long time and nothing would please me more than to hold these basically forever, selling a few occasionally for income as I move into that phase of life.

But it's not something I have any control over and we know from public news stories (many copied here) that there are now at least 2 new funds which have raised money specifically to take advantage of the situation in the biotech market and of course you will have read my thoughts regarding OXB as a likely bid target.

I think we are just too cheap now. OK there are more shares in existence so we'll not compare share price, but the market cap now with Homology is less than half what it was without it?

So we have added AAV tech, manufacturing and have customers already talking to OXB, 2 of which will be contracts before the end of the year and we are worth less than half what we were without that?

It's just too much of a bargain isn't it? Someone will come forward but I've no idea on the who, when or how much.

What I would be more interested in at the moment is who is hoovering up these shares on every one of our big volume days?

[gareth jones] 12/5/2022 13:10

1308x(433x2)= buy.

[algernon2] 12/5/2022 13:05

How much more red can a man take Harry. Crikey!!

[harry s truman] 12/5/2022 11:26

156 trades marked "algo" so far this morning, the vast majority of them less than £1k in value. At least the bots are having a good day...

[gigabit] 12/5/2022 10:49

Some interesting speculation by HST on the prospects of a bid from a cash-rich pharma company. Definitely worth examining the pros and cons. The main, and possibly only, pro is the capture of a CDMO to prevent a rival company from acquiring and locking the prospective bidder out of access. On the cons side the company, leaving aside the short term and highly exceptional Covid boost, is loss-making and has a liability in the form of the Homology options that is unquantifiable at this stage. Having the production capability may be superficially attractive but it moves the risk from a third party to the acquirer and up to now it has shown itself to be a risky business. The shareholders of cash-rich pharma companies are likely to prefer the cash to be used for dividends or share buy-backs rather than a speculative acquisition.

The larger holders that bought in at 810 or much more are unlikely to support a bid at current levels from an outsider or even from one of the other existing holders and there would not be much logic in a premium bid at this stage or in the foreseeable future. HST assumes that the large holders know more than the amateur investors - maybe, but that depends on how the Homology joint venture deal was sold to them.

All of this becomes irrelevant if the promised deals materialise. But currently the loss of AZN revenue is reducing monthly income by around GBP 10 million a month compared to last year and news of the deals is urgently needed if the share price drift is to be reversed.

[harry s truman] 12/5/2022 09:31

Unless Michael reads our thread Marcus (which let's be honest is pretty unlikely) I'd take that note as evidence of the same elephant appearing in many different rooms.

If the rank amateurs (us) can see that one, and the doctors who got MBAs and who now work for investment banks as analysts can spot that one, then you can be pretty bloody sure that the people in the mega-pharma multinationals who have the money will have spotted it some time ago.

It's an interesting stat regarding how far every small to medium cap biotech has been battered, but regardless of what our fellow travellers on the constructive criticism thread might say, we're not a typical small to medium biotech.

If you take just those in cell and gene therapy, then ask
Do you have an approved vector? and
Can you manufacture it yourself for us?

Then it's us and a few other CDMO outfits

Ask if they have an in-house drug pipeline as well (most CDMO outfits are just contract manufacturers of other people's tech) then really, and as I seem to remember JD once saying (re our Lentivector based pipeline and the Lenti manufactured / FDA approved CAR-T drugs), it's really just us.

Then at that point you have eliminated the vast majority (maybe all) of that small to mid biotech sector.

If you widen the selection criteria slightly and add
Do you have AAV IP as well as LV?
Do you have manufacturing facilities in the US and UK?

Then there isn't anyone else.

So, as mentioned by us many times here, if someone wants a gene delivery company with multiple vector capabilities (vector agnostic as OXB say), manufacturing capacity to support on 2 continents and in the prime locations for biotech of Boston and Oxford, it is just us.

So at these prices, which are just completely irrational, the question isn't if someone is going to make a bid, it's more when and for how much.

When it happens I would expect counter offers as major players looking at the cell and gene therapy market realise that this is a one in a sector / once in a career opportunity.

We are mostly amateurs. A very few people on the thread obviously are scientists, but like us invest as individuals on what little info we see.

Vulpes have 2 professors of biochemistry advising them and have sold none during this 5 months of chaos.
Novo Nordisk took a second huge stake at £8.10 during the chaos but will have done so on much better knowledge than any of us.
Just before the chaos Serum bought 3.9% of the company at 3x today's price, again on much better information than we will ever see.

Just to reiterate a point I've made before, as small investors have been driven off cliffs like lemmings in this massive transfer of wealth, how many RNS notifications of major shareholders reducing have we seen?

What we have seen is the chairman and acting CEO of the company (who can know the situation better?) buying shares this year with £1.5m of his own money.

Unfortunately this selling is obviously not over yet, regardless of my suggestion yesterday.

All that remains to be seen now is which organisation moves first, and if they will try to do it amicably with the large shareholders or the hard way in the rush for enough shares in the market.

[marcusl2] 12/5/2022 08:39

A note Friday from Jefferies analyst Michael Yee highlights just how far biotech valuations have fallen, and how much cash the big pharma giants have on hand. The largest biopharma firms right now have almost enough cash to more or less buy every single small-to-mid-cap biotech company.

[harry s truman] 11/5/2022 10:59

Aye, Tuco's 50p party (now £25 of course) influencing me there Effham ;)

Low volume today (which as mentioned I see as a good sign that the post results rush for the door is over) so a few buys this afternoon and we might see 500+.

I suppose it depends if the US holders have finished selling, but we will see.