Oxford Biodynamics Share Discussion Threads

[givmesunshine] 08/11/2023 15:09

Another thing that occurred to me, BUPA data will be used as a blueprint for a NICE Submission, or profile for US Hospital groups, using same value metrics that US/NICE use, validated by the private sector. (Which are 1000% more efficient). Its would make sense that they are building a real world evidence file

[givmesunshine] 08/11/2023 14:45

Agree Cyber

Really don’t think the market has took in the significance of the BUPA deal for CiRT… It’s came on the back of 2 blockbuster RNS's and all had a good news hangover IMO ..

In one full swoop. CiRT is available to BUPAs 41% share of the UK heath insurance that’s over 2.3 million people + now covered for and "Will be" offered a CiRT test should they sadly ever need it - BUPA are huge over 40million world wide .. It’s a big door to kick down.. and a real sign of where this is going .. if they can get BUPA they can get much more. Cirt sales grew 70% month on month May to June.. No update since and BUPA yet to roll up.. At last count bringing in $225-250k a month @90% Margin, so we started the financial year on a "no growth since June basis" with a FC Revenue of just sub £3million with a Gross Profit on £2.5ish.. but more likely to be starting the year on just say,140 test month , that would be less then 10% growth each month since June and $4.5 million - and we are still at corner shop operating levels without BUPA

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2023 14:30

Cyber - when do you expect them to reach 500 CiRT test per month ?

[cyberbub] 08/11/2023 13:55

Selling just 500 CIRT tests per month will more or less achieve breakeven, ignoring PSE entirely. Surely 500 CIRTs per month across the entire US and now BUPA is not excessively ambitious to report in the next few months?

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2023 12:36

I re-checked my research of the OBD test v the others on the market, sensitivity >= to many PCA (urine) / PHI (Blood) and 4Kscore (Blood) but the stand out number is the Specificity at 86%

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2023 12:33

Cyber, I agree. Any decent sales traction and we'll significantly re-rate. If we outsource the lab work to scale rapidly we'll fly even higher.

[czar] 08/11/2023 12:07

The share price in OBD was much higher than this in Feb '22 before the launch of PSE and big medical insurers came on board. This market is not working right now 35p is a gift from heaven imho.

[cyberbub] 08/11/2023 09:26

Hatfull, Mr Market looks forward! Obviously the PSE test has only launched recently, but the medical and financial case is very compelling. People will draw their own conclusions... Personally I'm hoping for a run back towards 50p soon. I assume Mr New 9% Holder is anticipating the same and more. I don't think we will hit 100p tomorrow, but if it becomes clear in the next weeks and months that we are gaining sales traction and approaching breakeven (which won't take much in the scheme of things) then I think 100p will be easily achievable. Just my view of course, each to their own. Hopefully there will be a commercial update soon.

[givmesunshine] 08/11/2023 09:24

Can see why they have nicked this chap.

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2023 08:47

I was also a little concerned (on timing) with this statement :


While it is currently early days for the PSE test in the market, the signs are promising. We have work to do so establish ourselves fully in the testing market, but appointments of this quality are crucial in strengthening and furthering our progress towards that goal

[hatfullofsky] 08/11/2023 08:18

Cyber, you're getting a little carried away, they'll be no offers any time soon. They need to prove the commercial model, then they can be valued on cashflow

[rajraj b] 08/11/2023 07:14

Very impressive credentials of the newly appointed Dr Arrivo. Let's see how quickly he can get this ball really moving.

[cyberbub] 07/11/2023 17:45

That's the third 100,000 share buy in the last couple of days. Someone is still selling in the background possibly. But they can't last much longer, now that Odey is down to zero.

[intoodeep] 07/11/2023 14:50

Yes Hitman, on APTA shares, 100% placing coming (again)

[thehitman1] 07/11/2023 14:48

Placing soon, heard it from a reliable source.

[intoodeep] 07/11/2023 14:45

Hitman wrong BB AGAIN, that post is for the APTA BB.....

[thehitman1] 07/11/2023 14:44

Pump and dump

[intoodeep] 07/11/2023 14:35

Bit more actually, try £202 million

Oxford Biodynamics Plc Ord Gbp0.01 is listed on the London Stock Exchange trading with ticker code OBD.L. It has a market capitalisation of £70.81m, with approximately 202.30m shares in issue.

[stevehuges] 07/11/2023 14:31

£1 is equal to 100 million market cap !

[cyberbub] 07/11/2023 13:27

Will be interesting (and lucrative) to know which other smallcaps Odey have a holding in, and are liquidating at the moment....

[cyberbub] 07/11/2023 13:18

Onwards and upwards hopefully. I honestly don't think 100p ($250m cap) is unreasonable at this stage, given the huge addressable market worldwide and actual revenues starting to build, the confidence shown by the FDA, BUPA etc, and quite simply the excellent world-leading IP they have spent 15 years developing to the point where a stream of further high-value products are coming down the line in the next not-so-many years... Ask yourself what would a bigger fish have to pay to buy the company out today? I suggest that 100p would be quite cheap (and also small beer for a cash-rich major pharma).

GLA no advice intended

[cyberbub] 07/11/2023 13:13

Great stuff. Doesn't matter who got the other 9%, maybe a mixture of smaller instis sub 3%, some PIs buying in (like me with 0.1% :-) ) etc. The bottom line is that the big seller holding us back has now gone :-)

[theclangers] 07/11/2023 12:53

Yes indeed, At least we know Odey are not selling anymore.
Any Short positions will be rushing to close now.

[hatfullofsky] 07/11/2023 12:36

As I said, taken of Odey, but who got the other ~9%

[theclangers] 07/11/2023 10:36

Yes that's true cyber, it also works the other way round from the buying prospective! There have been many late declarations, buyers often don't want others to know what they are up to as well. What are the toothless FSA going to do about it anyhow, especially if it was an oversight, blamed by someones age or not. A warning not to do it again maybe.