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[alphorn] 20/8/2017 21:14

Praipus re#812. I was put in my place over the weekend by a friend who thought that £xxxk was good but he has made a little more. He has been trading bitcoin etc. Here my knowledge base is almost zero. (Also in bubble territory btw).

He is coming out boating on Friday so hopefully time for some new ideas.

Here is a crazy thought in the meantime - are these 'currencies' that are not linked to a country actually safer than the Fiat currencies (eg $) should there be an event (eg Trump)?

[alphorn] 18/8/2017 19:11

You will be shocked to learn - in my head!
Studying the particular cross rate movements each day.

[praipus] 18/8/2017 12:54

On FX, how do you keep track of currency trends in terms of charts and data?

I'm thinking ADVFN etc?

[praipus] 18/8/2017 12:41

Agree with you longer term UK PLC will be stronger. But I think it will only achieve this after going a lot lower it has to be at a level were it translates in to entrepreneurial drive, development of time saving UK innovations, confidence and exports.

UK related Robotics and AI might be the answer.

I feel we are being constrained by inflation and in depth government meddling, over optimization and debt related fragility. Mays team have a mountain to climb.

[alphorn] 18/8/2017 12:15

Yes, have quite few (sold) puts open. Have been running strangles for a while but closed out the calls. Will just roll and roll them and make a little!

Lloyds depends upon what happens to the UK economy/Brexit. Probably would leave alone if I did not have any positions open.

[praipus] 18/8/2017 12:08

Well done on the FX your background must help you feel comfortable with it. My own experiences and back testing currency futures have been inconclusive.

Also witnessing a sharp move in the Swiss franc which knocked FXCM sideways a while ago makes me curious and mindful.

I noticed you post on the LLOY thread do you have an options view there?

[alphorn] 18/8/2017 11:59

Noticed that, I am making sure that I always keep one trade for a quiet month!

Btw. sold a forex option recently on the basis that GBP will recover a bit against €. Down at the moment on that one but up £xxxk on forex related generally over the past 18mths. I am thinking that there will be major changes to May's team which will be bullish.

What do you think???

[praipus] 18/8/2017 11:39

Notice Pheonix-Walbrook inactivity charges, seems a shame and an opportunity missed.

There must be a better method. I guess its us 1-lot junkies that cost them. The bit I don't get is should a big event occur causing one and all to buy Options again they are going to do it with another firm.

Thus by losing customers they are reducing optionality? and insurance event resurgence.

[stavros28] 22/5/2017 10:51

The sweet spot for selling Options is 45 days out Harv .

[stavros28] 17/5/2017 08:15

Ruffer clients want to get the cash out quick , the man`s an idiot, no idea how Options work !
Its easy to throw away other peoples money , some of which has come my way .
So far Ruffer is down $ 88 million .
Stavros

[alphorn] 08/5/2017 17:24

VIX heading down to 1993 levels. Are we that stable???

[praipus] 08/5/2017 14:10

Hmm I don't know suspect we get too little information to know what they (Ruffer or its clients) were really doing.

Does the $119m equate to 1% of the assets they were protecting by any chance?

[chinahere] 06/5/2017 18:28

Interesting. if you believe the S&P etc. are going down. How do you play this with VIX? I see loads of derivatives from it but what is there to buy non-daily wise?

[alphorn] 06/5/2017 12:56

In case you missed it:

"As of earlier this week, J. Ruffer had spent $119 million this year betting on a stock market shock, $89 million of which had expired worthless, according to data compiled by Macro Risk Advisors. The investor has gradually amassed holdings of about 1 million VIX calls through three occasions so far in 2017, and each time a significant portion expired at a loss.

Blame a subdued VIX for the futility. The fear gauge was locked in a range of 10 to 14 for the first three months of 2017, and while it has since climbed to as high as 15.96, it has been stuck well below 14 since a single-day plunge of 26% nine days ago. Earlier this week, the index closed at its lowest level since February 2007.

But that doesn't mean Ruffer is giving up. Already loaded up on May contracts, the firm has continued to buy cheap VIX calls expiring later in the year — wagers costing about 50 cents".

[alphorn] 15/3/2017 20:48

No, straight written forex option for the amount of the money market deposit. Same idea as a covered call on an equity holding except if called you would receive cash at the strike price in the currency of the option (eg. GBP/CHF).

edit. the aim was solely to boost yield so the strike were set on that basis. From memory they were never called.

[praipus] 15/3/2017 17:08

Ok, next "covered Calls on Money Market deposits" are these options on Pheonix? If so what is their code or name to look them up?

[alphorn] 15/3/2017 16:43

"put out these deposits for ever".

Meaning locking in the high rates that were on offer I would never have had to touch the capital. ;)

[praipus] 15/3/2017 16:40

Thanks Alphorn, blog invite noted, thank you.

CV to experience to trading domain all assiting your trades fascinating.

"Please say if it all sounds nonsense." not nonsense but I do wonder what instruments you were using. i.e. You say "put our these deposits for ever" are you talking about PUT options on cash? If so are these on the Pheonix system?

I've used Eurodollar's (well CFD's on them)to capture interest rate trends in the US but wasn't aware of what I could do in the UK for the same purpose.

[alphorn] 15/3/2017 13:01

My brother is an economics professor and he would not be a supporter!

[alphorn] 15/3/2017 12:59

My thread is trying, as a 'blog', to assemble macro data.

My thought is that GBP will overshoot to the downside and therefore I would open bullish GBP forex positions.

....please come and join the discussion!



Please say if it all sounds nonsense.

[alphorn] 15/3/2017 12:55

All sounds successful which it has been.

Here is a major miss!
I missed out completely on the rapid fall in interest rates!!!

I was very heavily in cash and could have put out these deposits 'for ever'.

Completely missed it. :((

[alphorn] 15/3/2017 12:51

Praipus - some notes on my forex trades. Not scientific so don't be disappointed.

- focus on a particular pair
- read every macro event relative to that pair over a very long time (years)
- define a range from all the data that you have assembled
- watch to ensure that some event will not define a new range
- trigger forex actions when the cross rate approaches range limits

I am not a forex trader. The approach was defined when treasurer of a large NASDAQ company as taking advantage of foreign exchange trends.

I may do nothing for a long time. Positions are normally 3 - 6mths out.

Notable examples of activity:
- 1980's as Treasurer - very large gains!
- 1987 Thatcher years - personal. Good gains and contrarian to market
- 2000's - personal, covered calls on money market deposits. I wish that I had had the idea earlier, yields amazing
- 2000's tried out some cross over idea using money market deposits. Too complicated and stopped. Smallish gains
- 2016 - a strong view that GBP overvalued - all risks IMO to the downside so mega bearish GBP. Positions still open today. Large gains

[alphorn] 14/3/2017 21:32

Trying to keep track of the likely impact from the referendum here - please look in.

Quite a bit of forex views.

[alphorn] 14/3/2017 21:17

Praipus - I shall reply in the morning.

[alphorn] 14/3/2017 21:15

Harv - Our broker in London didn't know about these things.

I asked in Geneva what is the difference with straight forex options.
Reply:
"Basically the result is the same between the two. However, with a DCI you are placing the cash on a deposit for the said period, the premium is received at the end, while with the option, you don’t need to have the cash available and you receive the premium straight away.

Now it all depends on the amounts, I was not sure for how much you wanted to trade. If it’s above EUR 100k, then you should go for forex options, the premiums are usually better, for smaller amounts a DCI would be better".