Optos Share Discussion Threads

[stavros28] 28/1/2016 10:30

IB comes as a a workstation on your screen but requires some detailed re-fig to give you the metrics you want in the right place eg Delta in the correct box. That requires going into the settings which are a bit of a maze at first.

[alphorn] 28/1/2016 09:05

Well done!

[stavros28] 28/1/2016 08:37

Glen a result in the making.

[stavros28] 28/1/2016 08:36

Yes we have a result !

[praipus] 27/1/2016 16:58

Ok, thanks for the offer.

[stavros28] 27/1/2016 16:53

Glencore in the UK market.

[praipus] 27/1/2016 15:38

Glencore American or European exercise?

QQQ very liquid. IB is the way to go.

Karen trades S&P's and Russell Options sometimes hedged with futures. European exercise only.

[stavros28] 27/1/2016 14:23

Morning, just sold Glencore put options cheats algo software has a buy signal , relative strength on the up and price action today confirms stock moving. News binary event my guess on the debt position !

[stavros28] 27/1/2016 14:21

Your Question , No I trade qqq one penny spread.

[praipus] 25/1/2016 11:51

Is the UK_options market ESX for example liquid enough to sell that far out and achieve a reasonable premium?

[stavros28] 25/1/2016 10:52

Yes, Karen does not stand too close to the fire.

[younasm] 22/1/2016 11:59

hello option traders -- hope you are doing well

I can't seem to find this thread when using mobile app for advfn -- hence not been posting.

mainly play with commodities / IAG/LGEN/ plus BP/GLEN/ALL/LMI

good luck

[praipus] 21/1/2016 16:36

16! Wow. If Ive understood it she sells to open at 5 deltas?

[stavros28] 21/1/2016 12:02

Praipus ,

I trade my own version of Karen the super trader system. I have elevated the method to a system but its just deep out of the money 16 delta stuff, but with a large number of contracts. I trade a conservative numbers of contracts and have an excellent platform to open and close trades( IB Platform )

[alphorn] 15/1/2016 13:46

How do you assess distribution of an option or market?

......with difficulty!

Work in progress at the moment!

I have never seen a market where there are no asset classes that look valid alternatives. Hindsight no doubt will tell another story.

[praipus] 13/1/2016 19:08

They also only use European style options and I think they mentioned using
Futures if it all gets going the wrong way. Most of their option trades expire worthless or if getting a bit tight they buy to close. Easy to talk about.

[praipus] 13/1/2016 13:14

Lol @ ""power"" the removable discpacks we had held 500MB and the CPU only had 256k RAM....took up an area the size of two tennis court!

Will have to watch the videos again. I dont recall them worrying about distribution. They hedge or sell more puts or sell calls depending on their view.

They also choose time to expiry carefully.

Lot of fiddling about.

Effectively they are selling PUTs, a bullish strategy.

How do you assess distribution of an option or market?

[alphorn] 13/1/2016 12:20

Items were selected for verification and the results used to determine the value of the total population. It needed the ""power"" of a 370 to do it!!!

Other variables came in from assessments whether the distribution was normal or not - otherwise it could not have been used. At the time it meant that the plant didn't have to close down for days to do physical counts which saved $$$$.

I don't know how these people in your video assess the distribution before they place bets - outside of my knowledge base!

[praipus] 13/1/2016 11:36

Errm I dont know. They mention "distribution around the mean" in one of the interviews which I assume is then normal distribution?

I said volatility in my post where I should have said Delta/Probability.

By estimation you mean you tested out of normal distribution...cool. Which adds to why i'm a little surprised you write options (although covered). How do you ignore "estimation sampling" when you trade?

Me also ex IBM 370-145 operator and programmer :)

[alphorn] 13/1/2016 10:04

Re. above - if that is the case then you hit a problem if the population is no longer a normal distribution.

[alphorn] 13/1/2016 10:03

Yes, writing mostly against cash. Both puts and naked calls. Not making much progress these days :(

Is the 95% that they are talking about related to normal distributions? I remember learning about that and estimation sampling which was used to verify values of total populations using sampling. A claim to fame was that I was the first person to use estimation sampling to check inventory values in Europe; using an IBM 370 at General Motors. A while ago!!!

[praipus] 13/1/2016 08:51

Thanks. Yes I have spreadsheets with volatility calculations behind them to mimic the Dough screens shown in the interview. Tastytrade dont have a UK representation as far as I can tell.

Are you still writting against your stock holdings?

[alphorn] 12/1/2016 21:19

Happy New Year to you too!

Will give it a read later.

95% chance of winning - not bad. Too complicated to copy???

[praipus] 12/1/2016 20:57

Happy New Year:)

Anyone following Karen "the supertrader" Bruton? Is selling options the way she does going to go seriously wrong at some point or has she found the answer to consistant investment performance?