Optibiotix Health Share Discussion Threads

[judijudi] 28/1/2019 19:18

risky,
Another superb post

[dazah] 28/1/2019 19:00

Elrico, you've obviously changed the link as I know what I read.

Have a good evening.
Regards

[jamesrs1] 28/1/2019 18:32

Fantastic post mr riskyb. That makes it very clear To anyone that is unsure about What fantastic progress opti Is achieving

[imnotlong] 28/1/2019 18:31

Risky, it reads very well. Thank you for taking the time to reply.

There are lots of potential catalysts which, in time, will hopefully come off and add value which will cause the next share price uplift. Hopefully sooner rather than later. But I think the valuation is more than fair at the moment. But this is AIM and valuations have no logic much of the time.

[trotterstrading] 28/1/2019 18:18

Highly unlikely to have lock-ins or back dated record date, the regulator won't allow it, I spoke to SoH about the divi situation at UKI last year. However there are ways to prevent opportunist traders getting a look in, he explained a hypothetical scenario whereby an RNS could be published moments before market close with the divi going Ex the same day, thereby giving traders little/no opportunity to buy in for the divi

[riskybusiness1] 28/1/2019 18:18

I actually asked an identical question to SOH. Basically 75% will be the absolute minimal and is likely to be much higher. 75% minimum is for some sort of subsidiary tax benefits. IMO £20-£30m is very low valuation. When you contrast this with SBTX valued at £22m today when it has no human data, distribution deal or revenues. Probiotix is apparently profitable already, has a significant number of existing deals some in high value biopharmaceutical and a growing pipeline of deals. To gain wider interest on IPO you do want to undervalue rather than overvalue a company. Over valuing on Ipo brings big problems from the outset. £30m would be undervalued but because of this would probably grow/double pretty sharpish especially if FDA approval of LPLDL, biopharmaceutical product launch closes in, team with specific sector expertise with big contacts and starting to develop the next wave of products eg diabetic control etc. These along with growing profits on a cash burn lower than that of Opti as a whole should see rapid focussed growth in Probiotix in a short period. Opti will have imo in short term of listing at the low end of estimates a subsidiary roughly worth £60m retaining £45m interest. Then SBTX valuation which is today as a whole £22m which is roughly £9m as 41.9% interest. On successful human study results id be shocked if it didn't double. That would leave Opti with an £18m interest in SBTX. Therefore as SBTX and Probiotix platforms develop over the next 12 months you can easily see a combined asset value of £63m for Opti with group revenues rapidly growing too.Then theirs slimbiome. This is not yet performing as quickly as hoped. As this is sold as an ingredient in all fairness it is a harder sell to get existing brands to add a new ingredient. I think increasing the number of applications eg bread, porridge muesli etc vastly increases a supermarket taking on one of the options. A supermarket launch would drastically change revenue to the extent of £5m+ valuing slimbiome at £50m alone. Tata launch of go figure would also drastically change revenues. IMO this is all but guaranteed considering they have set up a manufacturer who supply the major corporates in India these types of products. The people that understand the model will see a rational sequential deal flow lining up to supply TATA. SOH has pretty much said himself this is happening in Elrico interview before Xmas. CII in US can drastically change revenue in this area too with an order from one of their big corporate clients. Currently I'd give it a £5m valuation however a number of existing agreements yet to launch could multiply this valuation significantly.Then we have Slimbiome medical which based on XLS medical building £10m in two years of gaining medical device would value this at £100m on 10x earnings which is at the lower end of the spectrum in these markets. Currently on potential anywhere between £10-£15m. Slimbiome & Slimbiome med currently £15m combined value imo would be conservative if anything considering the uniqueness of having a medical device claim in the weight management space.Then there is sweetbiotix which has three opportunities: High intensity, Bulk sugar and functional sweet sugars. Each are multi £bn markets. Last year we were told an independent co had approached Opti over potential acquisition and had a £20m figure for the IP. Considering $100bn turnover companies are paying just for exclusive negotiations this is of no surprise. Fred Narbel ex VP of $6bn revenue Canadian dairy co Agropur has been brought in to commercially push this forward now it is commercially viable. His wealth of contacts should see a significant jump in value creation within this area this year. As of yet the interest in Sweetbiotix is from companies that have approached Opti rather than the other way around seeing as no one has headed the division. I therefore see significant growth in this area this year.Then the prebiotic platform which extracts specific prebiotic fibres from live probiotic organisms using Optis patented reverse enzyme technique. Like LPGOS which has its own cholesterol reducing effect as well as enhancing LPLDLs cholesterol reducing effect threefold. It is heat stable therefore can be put into any foods. Opti also have the IP rights that DSM paid Opti to enhance the growth rate and thus its health benefits of the worlds most valuable strain LGG. I don't dare put a value on this reverse tech because it has the potential to enhance the effect of every single live microbiome bio therapeutic probiotic drug in this rapidly emerging revolution in healthcare. These prebiotics can be sold on their own or added to products like Sweetbiotix for functionality or combined with biotherapeutic probiotic drugs to enhance them. I'd put £15m on this as it still has while before it's true commercial potential can be unveiled but this opportunity is truly massive. I've said before but this technology is probably a bit too far ahead of the curve. Most investors do not fully appreciate this golden ticket technology and the opportunities it brings with it. This is market revolutionising tech and the big companies will want in.In summary current mkt cap of £75m is reasonably fair if not conservative. If we take current valuations of Probiotix at £25m, SBTX at £9m, Slimbiome & medical at £15m, sweetbiotix x 3 of £20m (last years value) and the Optibiotic platform at £15m the rough total comes to £84m. There are significant catalysts in each platform to drastically change valuations in each in the short term.It's very easy to overlook the inherent value within each division when looking at revenues. Revenues is only one of many ways to valuing a company. An obvious example would be SBTX valuation increasing for Opti from £250k to £4.5m on listing and £9m today and likely double from here as the science develops on no revenues. There is huge unmet need for these products in enormous markets. This is why there are so many corporates involved with Opti and why the IP is so valuable. IMO the commercial phase of growth as the numbers come through will herald the next phase of growth and another means to value each division. To answer your question after my waffle imnotlong I think your missing the opportunities in each. Sweetbiotix isn't just one opportunity neither is slimbiome and you haven't accounted the Optibiotic platform at all. Medical device claim vastly increase the value of the IP. I also think your underestimating a number of catalysts that could drastically change valuations in the near term.Apologies if doesn't read well I wrote very fast!

[judijudi] 28/1/2019 18:08

Funny
:)

[someuwin] 28/1/2019 18:00

Yes Speccy - Its all about EVERYONE getting a fair share. That's how shareholdings should work.

Not singling out a specific group of shareholders who will get the whole pot - especially so when the CEO will be by far the biggest holder in that group.

[speccy1] 28/1/2019 17:47

I don't know about anyone else, but my OPTI shares are split across 3 accounts. They are all however nominee accounts with HL, so if there were qualifying limits for a divi, HL would qualify and distribute the divi.

I don't think that would happen, as it would penalise small independent shareholders, and SOH has demonstrated he has shareholder interests at heart.

I think he originally discussed trying to reward LTH with a back-dated ex-date, but seem to recall after taking advice this was too complex to be workable.

It may not seem 'fair' that traders can buy in just before a divi and qualify, but that's how all other divis work. I don't really care as long as I get my fair share.

[slartybartfaster] 28/1/2019 17:42

scotty128 Jan '19 - 15:43 - 45945 of 45963
0 6 1
Cannot for the life of me think why someuwin doesn't ban people like Dazah who has been found out to be anything but honest,what is the point in setting up moderated threads if you are not wilingl to get shot of the likes of Dazah etc.
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Yes you can. You were around when someuwin threw a tantrum when elrico gave access to the first Soh interview to his supporters of the blog 48 hours before posting it on his blog. Someuwin accused elrico of profiteering. Someuwin then removed all the research links from Opti and Sbtx.

[elrico] 28/1/2019 17:25

dazah 28 Jan '19 - 16:08 - 45953 of 45962 (Filtered for being a serial liar)

[elrico] 28/1/2019 17:23

Dazah, when you look in the mirror do you see Rayrac? You make the same childhood mistakes.

The link you refer to (Parob's post) is a link to an UPDATED page (25/11/2018), it is NOT a new post dated 24th Jan. It was just update and republished in the early hours. Here is a link promoting the same via twitter.

Nowhere in that post did you read its "could get worse" that is your lie, so own it!!

I do not fear anyone taking you seriously; safe in this knowledge I will filter you because I don't think you are worth my time.

[dire cons] 28/1/2019 17:19

dazah, to be fair, no-one has tried to belittle you. You're making a damn good job of it yourself!

[primal123] 28/1/2019 16:43

Haha you can see the trader someuwin is back! Now slagging off SOH! Let's see who's right, I trust him to do the shareholders well. Not someone who talks the price down when they want to trade!

[parob] 28/1/2019 16:38

Well the India/SE Asia Slimbiome value chain is being created. Manufacturer now in place (Zeon). Formulator next then a range of distributors. Tata news might not be too far away.

[rafboy] 28/1/2019 16:32

Colinzeal, I think that is a fair expectation.

[colinzeal] 28/1/2019 16:24

The directors of OPTI clearly think it's worth more than £75m otherwise they wouldn't have invested £450k of their own money; we'd do well to remember that fact when the usual people have their wobbles when the share price is down a couple of pence on the day. For comparison, you look at the likes of Falanx – supposedly another AIM growth play (cough) - and the CFO has invested like a couple of grand! If you think it's overvalued then fair play, I do understand that but it only takes one big deal to justify the entire OPTI market cap in one RNS. I'm still very much hoping for that to land in Q1.

[judijudi] 28/1/2019 16:23

Funny
:)

[someuwin] 28/1/2019 16:08

Its all BS anyway. There's no way they can look back and see who has been holding consistently over the years.

Just SOH's version of 'project fear' trying to stop people selling any OPTI stock.

Very unprofessional imo. He's supposed to be running a business - not a charity.

[dazah] 28/1/2019 16:08

Scotty, stop trying to push out people. As i said furnish us with the exact text that Parob referenced.

[imnotlong] 28/1/2019 16:03

Yes indeed Parob, there is the IP in those areas as well.

I was mainly surprised by the low valuation put on Probiotix with its IP and ‘hockey stick’ income growth. If that is only £20m to £30m with income streams then the IP alone valuation of the rest of the portfolio seems high to me.

[riskybusiness1] 28/1/2019 16:03

If your a LTH and have reasonable holding you'll have nothing to worry about and will be rewarded. If you trade in and out on small number of shares you risk not getting anything, from a LTH perspective serves them right!. SOH has grown Opti from 8p almost single handed and has not sold a single share since IPO. To say he should sacrifice his benefit from it instead of short term traders that have done nothing other than bring huge price swings is completely mindless. Let's not forget if SOH didn't buy 52% of SBTX out of the blue for £250k the benefits of SBTX would not even be up for discussion let alone a divi.

[shazbo] 28/1/2019 16:00

Risky, I have never heard of a company being able to pick and choose who gets a divi but am happy to accept it is a done thing and is legal if you say so, just never been part of company that has done it. From a very selfish point of view this would work out well for me as I have built up a decent holding over the past 3/4 years and never sold one, so I assume I'd be 'in'. But what about the smaller holding I have in my SIPP and what about the smaller holdings I have in my kids' Junior ISAs, would they count? I know you don't have answers to these questions but I raise them to highlight what an absolute minefield it would be. Can a company our size orchestrate something like this within legal/financial/time parameters? Although I'm not sure why we're getting our knickers in a twist about it as it wouldn't appear to be happening any time soon. Interesting dilemma though.