Opsec Security Share Discussion Threads

[bearfoot] 05/6/2007 08:40

Hi GI! you write that "at 88p we are talking of a pe of just 10 and a forward pe for 2007-8 of much less," ..... not sure I agree with that as 60% of last year's earnings have came from the one-off JV contribution. The underlying profitability last year is about £2.5m (good, but not remarkable) so I find it very hard to see how EPS can possibly be higher than the one-off £5.8m basis in the current year. Also, it seems they are spending a lot of shareholders money on employee trust share purchases...something that looks set to continue. My best 'guess' is that we're looking at £3m in the current year...which would give an EPS of about 4.5p per share. If so, the shares at 86p are 'reasonably' rated..admittedly with much more upside potential than down IMHO. I've certainly seen nothing in the results and associated comments to reduce my (sizeable) holding.

[greek islander] 05/6/2007 08:24

Results that are well ahead of what I had hoped for hold out huge promise for the future. The adjusted eps at 8.8p means that at 88p we are talking of a pe of just 10 and a forward pe for 2007-8 of much less, which has to make this even allowing for adjustments an extremely healthy buy and an undoubted possibility, with a bit of market support and a couple of good announcements, for a doubling of the share price I would expect at least one further acquisition in the near future and liked the comment about Opsec being very cash generative. Good cashflow for an expanding company like this is crucial. Certainly at its present price it is ridiculously undervalued now.
I would see it getting up a head of steam now and easing its way over £120p before people sit up and really take notice and we shall find it around 170p by this time next year. Even then, the historic pe would be under 20 if my figures are right and the forward pe at a very modest level.
It has to be one of the best bargains around - really surprised that todays increase was not far more incisive.

[bearfoot] 05/6/2007 08:04

Wow! and a dividend too...it's official: after too many years to remember they really have turned this baby round! However, to temper this, we need to note the profit after taking away the massive one-off JV contribution is approx £2.5m rather than the headline £5.8m. Had the dollar not fallen to historically (recent) lows during the period then performance (in sterling terms) would have been even better....so the fall in USDollar masks an even better performance. Onward and upward!

[buetowa] 05/6/2007 07:26

Great results

* Group revenue up by 31% and adjusted operating profit more than trebled;
* Record results across each business unit and market sector
- Brand protection revenue up 28%
- ID Technologies revenue up 62%
- Banknote and High Security revenue up 12%
* Record results in 3dcd joint venture on the back of successful launch of its major software customer's new operating software;
* Successful completion of acquisition and integration of GenuOne, Inc;
* Proposed final dividend of 1p per share.

[3frog] 02/6/2007 18:39

I can't see you investing in duds. If memory serves me right, most if not all your T20's have made a profit, I can see this one doing the same.

PS.Ignore people who argue, they get off on people taking the bait. Why else would they do it. and after all, life is too short.

[geoffmanana] 01/6/2007 18:02

I hope you are still thanking me next week!

[3frog] 01/6/2007 17:57

Thanks for puting me onto this one geoff.

[geoffmanana] 01/6/2007 15:58

105k all buys.

[geoffmanana] 01/6/2007 15:37

Good luck 3frog....hopefully we will see a pound again soon.

[qazwsx123] 01/6/2007 14:40

geoffmanana (Post 278) strange but you were being critical of OSG only today on the AZM thread:

geoffmanana - 1 Jun'07 - 13:33 - 6842 of 6843

Willydoctor I don't think the market took too kindly to Mark Turnage (ceo) selling 205k shares in OSG,as they have struggled ever since...Sorry OT.

[kmjs] 01/6/2007 14:30

harrogate

You beat me to it.

In the November '06 Interims it was stated that they were looking at
acquisitions.

It looks as though the numbers will be good.

I don't know how much should be read into the 3rd March sale of 205k shares at
86p, but as the share price seems to have been in a downward trend since the Jan. trading update, I guess there is a chance that there may be a cash call, if
OSG do indeed have these acquisitions ready to go, but can't cover them from
cash in hand.

If the acquisitions turn out to be good buys though, this will only add to the
value going forward.

DYOR

[3frog] 01/6/2007 14:17

geoff, just bought 20k.

[harrogate] 01/6/2007 14:08

We know what the results will be - good.

The key is what are they going to say about current trade and outlook and are they going to do something clever or silly on the acquisitions front.

I can say that the market in which they operate in is very active at the moment and is definitely growing fast but the sales cycle on the bigger contracts can be long so delays occur

[geoffmanana] 01/6/2007 14:02

Hi 3frog good to see you on this thread.
OSG went above £1 on excellent figs last time only to fall back to these levels after the ceo sold 205k shares.
Results due out 5th June and should be very good imho.
Look back at the news and recent results dyor.
Good luck.
Geoff

[3frog] 01/6/2007 11:31

where is this going? geoff & co.

[geoffmanana] 01/6/2007 10:12

Thanks drsous...I hope so.

[drsous] 01/6/2007 10:10

Geoff .I am sure you will be rewarded and i would buy too if i wasnt already full to the brim with these babies .80 p seems to have good support

[geoffmanana] 01/6/2007 09:56

Rejoined the party...30k at 81.5p this morning....not showing yet.
Good luck one and all...
Geoff

[greek islander] 31/5/2007 11:11

Conjecture as to the drop in the share price is so unhelpful though I do it as everyone does. I suspect that with all the fundamentals so encouraging the market cannot ignore the inevitable and the attention drawn to the company by a strong set of results should do the trick.
This is a good holding to put away and leave for a while maybe just topping up occasionally. I see a sharp rise after results and then the usual levelling out but the big gains are yet to come. This company has a very long way to go.
Today is a real buying opportunity.

[harrogate] 31/5/2007 10:47

I agree although I have had a couple of others recently that have drifted down ahead of results that should have contained no surprises and in fact didn't. I think people think surprises might be on the downside at the moment.

[foxman14] 31/5/2007 10:39

If there is acquistion news it will surely involve a placing of some kind as I can't see any other reason for the continual drop in the share price given the upbeat trading statements earlier this year.

[keane16] 30/5/2007 14:42

lol!

what are the chances!

Lets hope for a bit of excitement pre results