Opsec Security Share Discussion Threads

[bearfoot] 15/5/2008 14:06

Thanks for the comments/views, guys. Strange/extreme movement in the share price today...up 7.5% on apparently low volume of 30k shares (maybe delayed trades). :-)?

[arthur_lame_stocks] 12/5/2008 19:09

I thought it looked a high price, perhaps i'll wait for the results to see how this acquisition is doing. They do seem to be much more careful these days with their money. If it's a real growth story then it could be worth buying back in, but they've made costly mistakes in the past. I'll keep watching for now.

[harrogate] 12/5/2008 08:38

I agree that it is an interesting figure that they seem to have paid.

I would make a couple of points - they state that the deal will be just earnings enhancing in the current year so you have to assume that the 2008 results from these guys are going to be much much better than 2007. As we seem to be on about 6 or 7 times you have to asume that they could make over £1m in current year for this to be true - more when you factor in the increased interest costs so I guess we are paying for a real growth story - which OPSEC without acquisitions isn't.It is a growing area of brand protection

Given they are a start up in 2000 it could be that all the IPR has been expoensed so isn't sitting on the balance sheet so I wouldn't worry about NAV

Given the customer base which looks great cross selling opportunities must be good.

If they can integrate the last 2 acquisitions 2008 could be a good year.

The most interesting thing is the total lack of interest now in OPSEC and I think they need to be taken off the market to get the valuation we think they should have.

[bearfoot] 12/5/2008 08:27

Hmmm...so what does everyone make of the latest acquisition? £8 million (about half of which is up front and guaranteed) for something that has almost zero net assets and sales of barely £1m and with 16 employees? There MUST be some incredibly valuable off-balance-sheet IPR, not mentioned in the announcement, to justify this!! Whatever else the acquisition costs will add more millions to goodwill and intangibles on the balance sheet....

[harrogate] 28/4/2008 07:41

Hi - I never push a share -I hopefully provide facts - The facts I have been providing over the last few months is that compared to other valuations in this marketplace OSG are undervalued.

[aphrodites] 28/4/2008 06:05

harrogate

You are a naughty boy.

I am surprised to find you still here pushing the share.

The golden rule is "never make love to an investment"!

I told you a long time ago I had done my work when I had been previously warning not to get carried away at the time the C.E. and his wife were loading up with shares.

I ended my posting, went long and even surprised myself when I sold right at the top at 105p.

I must admit I did not like the share when the likes of HedgeHunter crawled out of his hole and started pushing the share. Nasty bit of work that one.

Well my contact who was responsible for financing the restructuring of the buiness some years ago now lives aboard. But he called me over the weekend to tell me to put a few of these on board again.

The whisper is of more action and I for one would not dismiss an MBO.

I might buy a few today.

[harrogate] 16/4/2008 19:52

It has been a great opportunity to be able to buy in again at 40p which I first did well over 3 years ago - But not so good when I think my original shares got over £1

I do not believe that they will be at this level for a year -if they are not bought they will do an MBO -

Stick with it guys

[harrogate] 16/4/2008 19:52

It has been a great opportunity to be able to buy in again at 40p which I first did well over 3 years ago - But not so good when I think my original shares got over £1

I do not believe that they will be at this level for a year -if they are not bought they will do an MBO -

Stick with it guys

[sgntfury] 16/4/2008 17:15

I agree entirely with you Seahorse. I've been buying in since 89P (on the way down unfortunately) and although I'm way out of pocket right now I am confident they will come good, but we could be looking at 12+ months before we reach the 90p+ level. So I guess we're both in for the long haul.

[seahorseleisure] 03/4/2008 12:09

Well, here's hoping.

Medium term, I'm not sure that the market sentiment will get to that level without some corporate acqusitions but take your point on them being bought out.

[harrogate] 03/4/2008 11:59

I hope you are rewarded too.

I do not feel that there will be more acquisitions as it happens - I think they will be bought and soon - In the market in which they operate they are cheap.

I doubt if they will get close to £1.50 I am afraid now but we should be looking at nearly double this on valuation grounds today compared to deals being done

[seahorseleisure] 03/4/2008 11:55

Harrogate

I'm with you, bought a few more and gone long (more than i was) on these. I have been buying small amounts regularly since they were 80P so down a fair bit at the minute. Am sure that as a long term bet that these will come good. Its a good company with a motivated management team (high rewards for them if they get the share price up to £1.50+) and strategically they have changed a lot since the days of Applied Holographics.

Hope / expect that this is the first of a few acquisitions and feel that they would have been more active (as would many companies) if the credit squeeze hadn't happened.

Cheers

SH

[harrogate] 03/4/2008 11:07

Just had to have a few more at 40p - My hunch with these guys better be right !!

[masurenguy] 03/4/2008 10:31

Could we please have a Long Term Chart and News section added to the header.
Here is todays Trading Update.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

03/04/2008: OpSec Security Group plc
Pre closing trading update and acquisition of Light Impressions International Ltd

Prior to entering its close period for the year ending 31st March 2008 OpSec
Security Group plc, the supplier of anti-counterfeiting technologies and
services, releases today the following pre closing trading update.

Despite the translation effect of the weak American dollar and the absorption of the cost of aborted acquisitions, the Board believes that results for the year ended 31st March 2008 will be only marginally below market expectations. Group turnover remained flat as the benefit of new customer contracts was offset by the return to more normal levels of trading on the new contracts secured in the previous financial year. Savings on overheads and a higher than expected contribution from 3dcd largely offset the impact of a higher depreciation charge arising from the recently completed major capital investment programmes and a small decline in margins resulting from some changes in product mix.

The Board is pleased to announce that it has completed the acquisition of Light
Impressions International Limited. The purchase price consists of an upfront cash payment of £2.0m and a two year cash earn-out capped at £4.5m, in addition to which OpSec will pay in cash on a pound for pound basis for the amount by which Light Impressions' cash balances at completion exceed its immediate requirements. The two-year earn-out is to be calculated by reference to the turnover and gross margin achieved on key customer accounts during that period. The purchase price will be paid out of existing cash balances and bank facilities. Key employees from Light Impressions have agreed to stay with the business post the acquisition to help ensure a smooth transition and the early realisation of significant integration benefits.

Light Impressions is a provider of holographic products to approximately 80
customers globally with a particularly strong presence in Asia. It creates its
own holographic images and sources products from other holographic manufacturers but does not manufacture in its own right. Light Impressions currently has 7 employees based in Leatherhead. In its annual report for the year ending 30th August 2007 Light Impressions reported turnover of £5.0 million, profit before taxation of £0.6 million and net assets of £1.5 million.

Commenting on the acquisition Mark Turnage, Chief Executive Officer, said:
"The team at Light Impressions has done an excellent job of building strong
customer relationships and the acquisition of this company will give our
European operations a significant presence in the Asian market. We expect the
transaction to be earnings enhancing immediately and of significant benefit to
the Group in future years."

[harrogate] 03/4/2008 09:52

Well there we go... Need to see what it means "just below expectations" - In these markets not good news.

The disappointing thing is the lack of sales growth - they should be growing at 10% + in their market.

The acquisition looks good and with only 7 employees integration risk in minimal and they sound bullish on cost savings - I guess OSG will be able to manufacture the holograms currently being manufactured externally by the new company.

I wish I had waited and have lost more than a few £ now but I think they are a steal at these levels - last seen when they were still a basket case with a loss making European business and before 2 acquisitions

I genuinely believe now that they will be taken out ... At what price who knows but the board are now under water on most of the options and quite a lot of their share purchases so we must be hopeful of action

[bearfoot] 28/3/2008 12:05

Many thanks Harrogate :-)

[harrogate] 28/3/2008 11:24

Just confirmed with Financial PR guys that they use that they do intend to issue a preclose trading update, that it is soon but that no date has yet been confirmed.

[harrogate] 26/3/2008 08:42

Shows what i know !!

[bearfoot] 25/3/2008 16:01

Harogate....thanks for the reply.....I use E-trade and the maximum I could buy in one tranche via their electronic system was 5k and when I tried to buy 3 lots of 5k they called up to say I could not have any more and if I tried to buy any more they may be barred by MMs from being able to sell OSG!!

[harrogate] 25/3/2008 15:33

What do you mean there is no stock - you need a new broker - I bought 22,000 last week and could have had 100,000 and someone has bought over 250,000 today without any seeming trouble

I am guessing about the trading update - They usually do a preclose statement and last year it was on a Wednesday - Not very clever really.

These are so cheap and will be bought at a price much higher than this if they don't go up before - I am sure.

[bearfoot] 25/3/2008 15:28

Hey there Harrogate.... What makes you think/know there's a trading statement tomorrow? Let's hope there's some good news..... ps I also picked up some more lately at 44p but could only get 10,000 and I had to do this in 2 x 5,000 lots! The broker said that there was not much/any stock on the MM's books....I guess this is just the current market conditions rather than anything to do with OSG...

[harrogate] 25/3/2008 15:12

Interesting volume today ( but buyers seemingly accommodated easily) ahead of what I believe will be a trading update tomorrow

[harrogate] 14/3/2008 13:17

Just picked up 22,000 - Had no trouble getting them at 46p - Bit disappointed it was so easy - suggests they are not short of places to get stock from

Could go a bit lower before it moves up

[arthur_lame_stocks] 13/3/2008 16:43

My guess is that it's dollar weakness/US weakness that's hitting them.

If they keep falling i'll just have to buy some again.

[harrogate] 13/3/2008 08:51

This share has now fallen further than you would expect in my opinion based on the small company AIM carnage - why - I have no idea

1) Bad news coming -you would have thought they would have said something - and they sounded positive in November
2) Very weak holders who need out/ tax change selling -at this level not sure who will make a great deal of profit especially as they can go up 8% in a day which is all the tax saving is
3) Rights issue on its way to fund a large acquisition - I think this is the most likley

Getting cheaper on all known comparables -lets see what next weeks trading update brings ( I think it will come next week based on last year )