Ophir Energy Share Discussion Threads

[jotoha2] 23/11/2017 07:58

Nick cooper says Fortuna will bring significant value to shareholders , wow now that is laying your head on the block!! Wonder what Mr mm will make of it ?

[nigelpm] 23/11/2017 07:57

Yes, market won't like it for sure. Question is are the talks with the Chinese stalling because they don't like the project or with the price increases in Brent ergo LNG they don't want to pay more? Who knows.

[loglorry1] 23/11/2017 07:55

Nigel it's a delay though. Not sure what to think really. If it does happen on attractive terms then OPHR looks very cheap.

[nigelpm] 23/11/2017 07:17

We should get financing confirmation Mid December however FID decision with Xmas etc not until Q1 2018. Positive news on balance I'd argue. The chance of no financing deal looks highly unlikely now.

[sleveen] 23/11/2017 07:14

Hence the drift!

[citytrader66] 23/11/2017 07:13

RNS: "The Final Investment Decision, based on this sequence of approvals, would be expected to take place during Q1 2018".

moved to next year then as expected!

[ed 123] 22/11/2017 15:38

63p and rising.

60p seller on a sickie today?

Sector is looking good.

Renewed confidence in the sustainability of $60 Brent?

[nigelpm] 21/11/2017 17:02

Great article - things are looking up at exactly the right time I'd say.

[ohisay] 21/11/2017 11:29

It refers to both .

[jotoha2] 21/11/2017 11:26

Good article but it refers to user end , ophr is operating at the supply end which if you belief the article, then ophr will strike lucky with price of LNG rising just as their supply source comes on stream , keep buying major insti are sitting on their investment for obvious reasons.

[nigelpm] 20/11/2017 15:42

Back in for more - still hopeful we get news this side of Xmas but do agree if it gets delayed yet again we'll be seeing the other side of 50p.

[jotoha2] 17/11/2017 17:27

Good post Edd , spot on with your analysis , The Norwegians have been selling and also buying , yet yesterday they made a statement that they do not see any justification to be invested in oil for the next 2 years , wonder if they are slowly dumping stock ?

[ed 123] 17/11/2017 14:13

No problem. :-)

[nigelpm] 17/11/2017 14:12

Yes, got ya - been delayed historically - I thought it was purely in relation to the latest statement provided by management.

[ed 123] 17/11/2017 14:10

Hi Nigelpm.

My comment recognised the history of FID date drift. Viz:-

(1) Update of 10th November 2016, FID to be in 1H 2017.

(2) Annual Report, released 5th April 2017, FID to be mid-2017.

(3) Interim report, released 14th September 2017, FID to be in Q4 2017.

(4) Update of 2nd October 2017, "Project, is expected to FID before the end of 2017."

It's a pattern of steady drift for the date for the FID.

My view is that the slide in the share price reflects doubt that FID will happen this year. Also, there will be concern about the negotiations. Are the partners yet firmly signed up? Perhaps one is equivocating? What will the detail be be in any final agreement? What will be the value of Fortuna to Ophir's shareholders?

The shares are 60p in the market now. I can't see them rising till there is satisfactory news about Fortuna.

Someone is continuing to load the sell side.

Not an easy time for holders.

[nigelpm] 17/11/2017 13:18

What is all this fantasy about FID being delayed - management last said before year end - there are still 6 weeks.

[ed 123] 17/11/2017 09:54

Jotoha2.

There are no disclosed short positions exceeding 0.5%. Probably little shorting in total?

Most sellers will be holders giving up because the FID for Fortuna is so long delayed. Delays normally presage some poor news.

The shares look cheap if Fortuna goes to plan. It's possible there'll be another disappointment, though.

I think all the directors' options are all out of the money here (61p)?

Ophir's share price is at an all-time low - a good time for someone bigger to look it over? A takeover bid would suit me fine, 90p and out?

......... scrolling through my contacts for Sinopec ............. ;-)

[jotoha2] 17/11/2017 09:11

Looks like shorting this from 90p level has been very lucrative for some!!

[nigelpm] 16/11/2017 23:33

You never short bubbles unless you get the timing absolutely spot on!