Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[source] 07/7/2016 15:15

Good point Marvelman. Has anyone asked the company why this hasn't happened?(Or maybe it's just general selling instead?)Regards,Source.

[marvelman] 07/7/2016 15:11

Despite all these sell trades and the relentless decline of the share price there has not been a holding RNS since June 2014....hard to believe that a notifiable interest is not due by now.

[ballychan] 07/7/2016 15:04

The seller continues to off load, once they're done, this should climb up swiftly. We've already had confirmation OPG are on track to meet market expectations, and they've outlined their future growth plan, so not expecting any surprises. Miton are selling all their holdings to get down to 5%. This could be happening with M+G who currently hold over 12% of OPGI have funds freed up and waiting for the bounce - hoping for 50p.

[ballychan] 06/7/2016 14:00

Original,Your expectations aren't too far from Cantor's.....The broker believes that with the right projects, optimally structured, OPG could add a possible 87p to its existing 130p target price, "creating a total value of over £2 through reinvestment in the period to 2020".The next year or so is likely to see new project announcements driving positive news flow.With Gujarat now up and running, OPG can also now move towards setting a dividend policy, said Cantor.It estimates that even with a dividend of 1.56p, free cash flow from 2017 onward will be around £45mln annually to be used either for new projects or to pay down debts of at £254mln at end 2015.Cantor's target price in February 2016 was 130p. 

[the original goldbug] 06/7/2016 12:16

Ben Gunn,

I actually happened to spend 17 years doing investments professionally. Therefore forgive me if I come across as conceited, but I can say I am familiar with most of the concepts and tools which help people manage money. Without wishing to write too lengthy a post on the subject I do not put too much weight on the technicals for smaller illiquid issues than I would for macro related trades. It's not to say however that the same rules and disciplines cannot be applied.

If you look at the longer term chart you will notice that 60p also provides a level of support. You could also make the case that we have an Elliot 5 wave downtrend terminate in the 60p area (I actually have no faith in Elliot Waves..!).

For the record I have also visited back in 2012 the company's head office in Chennai. Despite all this I am fully prepared to admit that I could be as wrong as the next fellow. The business risks that concern me are that creditors become overly political and populist movements in India. As far as the share price is concerned we are also hostage to a possible global macro slump and all the ensuing liquidity related issues. Longer term possibly 30 months out I would agree with your 150-160p target. Beyond that in 5 -7 years I see the stock at 250p -300p as long as they can demonstrate a degree of sustainable growth with ungeared IRR's at 12% or so. This stock is a long term pension type play for me.

[ben gunn] 06/7/2016 11:51

Original
Am I to assume that charts play no part in your investments?
(I see fair value closer to 160 than 60 but how to catch a falling knife?)

[the original goldbug] 06/7/2016 10:59

Sort of naive to make decisions on plugged in computer numbers without context.

[2torrance] 06/7/2016 10:56

Any thoughts on this from Stockopiedia.

OPG Power Ventures has an Altman Z2 of 1.56 indicating the company is not entirely safe from financial distress, caution should be taken.

The meter is derived from the Altman Z-Score, a statistical bankruptcy indicator generated from a set of balance sheet ratios. If the meter is in the safe zone (*indicating a Z-Score greater than 3*) the financial health of the company is good, whereas a company is in serious trouble if the meter is in the distress zone (*indicating a Z-Score less than 1.8*). Tests have shown that the Distress Zone is 80-90% accurate in predicting bankruptcy.

Sort of scary.

Sorry just to be clear I am not shorting this stock, I rarely do short any stock. But have just sold half of my holding at a loss I deeply regret of about £2000. it has been woeful.

[azalea] 06/7/2016 09:28

The IR continues to strengthen against sterling which has fallen from 104IR to todays 87IR

[ballychan] 06/7/2016 08:59

Back to more relevant topics. Yesterday was good news;* able to self finance with debt and internal cash. That quashes rumours of a rights issue.* Solar start up costs are at their lowest - certainly bodes well for future growth.* Previous dividend guidance was 15% payout of net earnings, now they're aiming for a progressive scheme paying out up to 33%. And with their history of paying down debt, the 33% will add up to a healthy figure down the line. * Rupee continues to slide, currently at a year low.

[ballychan] 06/7/2016 08:53

You really need to stop investing in AIM companies if date scheduling is so important to you. Stick to Main List shares where the rules are more robust and strict. Just to add, aim stocks only need to publish results at 6 and 12 months - but OPG choose to publish quarterly.

[eddie1980] 05/7/2016 19:34

For all who think I hold only a grudge, ask yourself whether a company should be professional enough to actually have a timetable to consolidate and publish results before year end, which is announced so a date set to publish.... Or do not, not mention results until 2 months post year end, then indicate they will be a full month later than the prior year, then when that month comes, put out further updates without still being able to give a definitive date.

Guess your expectations of what a listed company should do and mine are somewhat different.

[the original goldbug] 05/7/2016 17:39

I'm interested to know what the ungeared IRR's are for these new projects. You would have thought barriers to entry are very low, I mean what are the externalities of having solar projects in comparison to coal fired power stations!? I would hazard to guess they are about 11-12%. The initial release also suggested this project was not dependent on subsidies. Also it was reassuring to know that the equity component of the new capex can be financed internally.

Anyway it is good to see that a new project is on the horizon with the potential for some company changing growth over time. The improving economics of solar can only be a good thing and perhaps coal will no longer be the company's future, as originally planned.

Hope more news and details are forthcoming shortly. There also appears to be a big seller at the 60p level, it is impossible to know how much more stock is out there so patience should be the key as well as confidence in the prospects of the company longer term given the possibility of a further markdown in a rotten and illiquid market. Opportunity likely beckons for the longer term investor at these levels however.

[source] 05/7/2016 16:56

Care to expand on your post Piedro? Don't get it. Regards,Source.

[piedro] 05/7/2016 16:15

62 MW Solar Projects in Karnataka (India)

cf.
Location:Bellary
Acquired part completed plant in 2011
120 acre brownfield site well located in industrial heartland of Karnataka state
Completion of 12 MW expected in FY15
Potential to develop into a 350 MW plant

{delayed}

[piedro] 05/7/2016 13:57

Touché
:-)

[source] 05/7/2016 13:13

Maybe a bit like your grudge against Tristel perhaps Piedro? ;)Regards,Source.

[piedro] 05/7/2016 11:06

Eddie seems to have some sort of grudge against the company ...

:-)

[bigkiltedwarrior] 05/7/2016 10:29

They did say back in May that it would be July 2016.

[eddie1980] 05/7/2016 10:20

I cannot believe this company - where are the F'ing results.... Not even a mention of the date. Can they not have a expected publication date over 3 months since the end of the financial year!

They may be majority family owned, but do they have no sense of corporate responsibilities if they want to attract professional monies which is the only way this is going to get a serious uplift in valuation.

[bigkiltedwarrior] 05/7/2016 09:55

RNS Out - Renewable Growth projects

RNS Number : 2662D

OPG Power Ventures plc

05 July 2016

5 July 2016

This announcement contains inside information.

OPG Power Ventures Plc

Renewable Growth Projects Pursued

OPG Power Ventures Plc ("OPG", the "Group" or the "Company"), (AIM: OPG), the developer and operator of power generation facilities in India, is pleased to announce an investment in 62 MW of solar projects as part of the Group's ongoing growth strategy.

62 MW Solar Projects in Karnataka (India) - 25 year PPA - expected commissioning in 2017

The Board has approved the Company's investment of GBP45 million in four new solar projects across various locations in Karnataka, one of the most industrialised states in India. This investment is to be funded from a combination of internal cash generation and debt and the Directors expect all four of these new projects to be generating cash flow by June 2017.

The projects were secured in a competitive bidding process and the Company has signed long term (25 year) power purchase agreements (PPAs) at an average tariff of Rs 5 with Karnataka Power Corporation. The targeted return levels are expected to be met without any subsidies being available.

Maiden dividend expectations unchanged - longer term expectations enhanced

The Board announced its initial expectations with regards to dividends on 24 May 2016 and that expectation remains unaffected by this approved investment. The Company's dividend objective is to attain a pay out of 15 per cent of full year net earnings, subject to the level of free cash flow generated calculated after scheduled debt repayments and expected capital expenditure and progress to a long term dividend strategy that pays out a third of the Company's total net earnings in any year. The solar energy business is expected to make a significant contribution towards this target while keeping the Group on a growth trajectory.

[chalky] 05/7/2016 09:54

i think i would rather see the very long awaited results before new investments, stated, not sure they would get away with not publishing full year results,which is over 3 months,on the main market.

[the original goldbug] 01/7/2016 17:54

I can understand your frustration, though think expectations and price paid is more the cause than OPG management let downs.

It's easy to throw the book at them, but compared to KSH et al they have done what they said.

It's going to cashflow circa £65-70m and on an EV of £450m seems reasonably priced given the smaller cap and family ownership concerns. Still debt will be repaid at £30m plus a year from financial year 2017, equity will be built, dividends will be paid, new projects will be undertaken and the PE will come down in time from circa 8-5.5 over the next 24 months. Short term EPS numbers will be revised up given the fall in sterling.

[eddie1980] 30/6/2016 14:32

This company also guarantees not to fail with its performance. Granted I assume the latest forcasts won't have any FX impact within from recent turmoil, but morning stars brokers EPS for 2017 are 8-8.8p, further slippage from recent past.

Given the current PE's of established FTSE's are within this sort of range at the moment, compared to a small Indian based Co majority owned by a family, I'm actually questioning whether this sort of level is not fair value.

[eddie1980] 30/6/2016 14:02

Ignoring all the macro events, this company hasn't (wouldn't) even put a definitive date on releasing the financial results for the year. Truly embarrassing for the company - what a bunch of incompetents at the head office. And it's a month later than the prior year? My on,y rational explanation is there is some bad news within the numbers (lower than expected due to the floods in region?) and they want to be able to say demand is back up to normal in CY before releasing results.)

Quite how a company that claims to be motivated to move to the main market can't run to a financial timetable is beyond me. And they expect professional outfits to invest in their shares!