Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[source] 20/6/2016 14:52

OPG missing out on big moves upward today across the wider marker (again)......At this point I'm sure pumper Azalea will chime in to say "but look how fast India is growing, wah wah wah"... :)Regards,Source.

[azalea] 17/6/2016 17:53

India overtakes China as the fastest growing economy in the world.

16/6/2016 Bob Marshall-Lee, of Newton, head of emerging markets.
"India is poised to be a standout among global stock markets over the next 5 years. It should be able to meet its long term growth potential thanks to positive economic reforms and its attractive demographics". Modi has put in place all the proper labour reforms, unleashing the productivity potential. Modi is making all the right reforms, setting the economy up for its long term future, not focusing purely on the short term.

Euan Thompson head of emerging markets for Neptune, agreed.

[jozo] 15/6/2016 11:33

I would have thought that moving to main market will be the point that any capital raising will occur - agree PIs will not get a sniff in - current management won't want dilution either so will need to put funds in alongside institutionsJozo

[eddie1980] 15/6/2016 10:18

I have only just watched the OPG video update from 26th May, where the strategy director (not sure why him, as he was basically talking financials, why not the FD, but never mind)

The guidance on EBITDA margins to be 30-35% - anyone have any numbers on what the base case is at 30% before I do it (as think JJBevs was using 35% if I recall) - am hoping at very least they are being cautious so expect to be comfortably within range (and so above 30%) but good to know the bottom line so to speak...

[eddie1980] 15/6/2016 09:55

If they were, it would be a placing - new institutional investors, the current management, and guess who gets left out to be diluted.

I always said the problem with this company now is its stuck - its not a growth company as its got no money to invest. Given they have all these employees and senior management who have spent 6 years developing, designing and overseeing the build of these plants, all they can do now is watch the plants operate - simple operations people can do this. You either need to get rid of all the people, or you need more money so they can do their job.

Logically, if they can create wealth by building new plants, why should they not. Just a shame in these situations the ones who get diluted (shafted) are the PI's.

The claims without any details that they are only looking at solar and other projects (with little capital investment upfront) is more than likely convenient noise as they couldn't say they were unable to do anything without more money.

[marvelman] 15/6/2016 09:19

I wonder if they are planning a rights issue alongside new projects to be announced. This price action looks very suspicious.

[azalea] 14/6/2016 11:50

A weakening sterling against the IR will translate well into OPG earnings.

[ballychan] 09/6/2016 13:31

Taking an average of the forecast EPS figures, at 74p we're on a PE ratio of 10.5 and forward PE of only 8.2 Still very undervalued.

[azalea] 09/6/2016 12:57

Brokers' consensus Eps growth forecast for last year is 45.83% and 25.43% on top of that for 2017. With a positive outlook Mr Gupta with his 50%+ stake, is going to be looking for a significant reward in Sp and maiden dividend on the back of a continuing rise in generating capacity, falling debt and much lower costs for coal imports using company owned freighters.

[ballychan] 09/6/2016 12:53

Thanks rivlado, very interesting.It certainly has been nice not seeing those regular 5k and 10k sells.The 50 day MA (now 72p) was resistance for a long time, fortunately we've broken that, let's hope we don't close below it.

[rivaldo] 09/6/2016 12:10

Good to see a decent bounce developing here.

Forecasts for the historic and current year results still vary somewhat.

For last year, forecasts now range between Shore's 6.6p EPS and Cantor's 7.51p EPS.

For the current year, Cenkos go for 8p EPS, Cantor 8.78p EPS and Shore Capital are highest at 10.1p EPS.

And Cantor go for a 1.56p dividend, whilst Shore go for 0.8p. Perhaps next month's results will help the forecasts to coalesce a little.

[source] 04/6/2016 12:36

Agree Ballychan - I too have been keen to see them get their debts down, and certainly do this convincingly prior to any further big expansion.

Given their slower delivery of earnings results and bringing plants on stream than originally promised (despite the various spinning that it has been otherwise) I think they may better regain their credibility by delivering some crisp:-

(1) powerful operational performance;
(2) cash flow generation to now make up for their previous hiccups;
(3) and finally a much better shareholder return than the past few years.

I am keen to see them expand, but ONLY with internally generated funds rather than further debt (or worse any further equity/rights issues) to prove they can finally deliver some convincing shareholder returns.

So far I have been glad to see them acting sensibly in the above regard.

Regards,
Source.

[azalea] 04/6/2016 09:55

Friday's net circa 369k of buys soaked up a lot of sells earlier in the week,with some singed fingers in the process. Debt should continue to fall and earnings will rise as optimum power capacity is generated. share price has a Long way to go before realising fair value. To that end, H1 results should be particularly interesting and rewarding.

[ballychan] 03/6/2016 23:25

It is very encouraging to see OPG continue to repay their loans (repaid £13m in H1 and £10m in H2). They're paying around £11m a year in interest so it's great to see them concentrating on getting debt down.They're debt gearing was 59% at the start of the year, and now it might be circa 53%. Getting below 50% is pivotal and classed as lower risk which no doubt would open up more competitive loan deals.Refinancing was mentioned in the video, I expect news on this within FY17. The forecast dividend of 1p only amounts to £3.5m. Once the loan is paid off they'll save £11m annually which would allow a lovely hike to the dividend.

[ballychan] 03/6/2016 15:57

The 50k sell is from yesterday - reported late.There was also a 150k sell yesterday, so hopefully this is the last of the seller.

[source] 03/6/2016 15:41

Thanks JJBHEV! always good to read informed & balanced posts here! Shame we have to wade through pumper a tripe to get to it though! :)Interesting day, and a few smaller caps have done well today, and as suspected previously it has bounced after revisiting medium term lows. Good OPG buy volume today also. Not sure if MM's are playing games, or if the seller(s) have finally cleared or not (with a 50k sale mixed into the buys suggests maybe not, but a helpfully positive day today). Regards,Source.

[marvelman] 03/6/2016 12:55

I am sure I am not alone in my appreciation of your work JJ. You have been neither offensive nor critical of others views. If only that could be the case in other aspects of our current society at large let alone these bulletin boards. Regards.

[jjhbev] 03/6/2016 12:41

Thank you Marvelman

I have no problem at all with people holding different opinions from me and/or challenging anything I post - indeed IMO part of the benefit of being on a BB is to exchange views and opinions. However, I do prefer it if there is some reasoning behind any comments/questions/challenges.

I (like most of us here) also prefer it if there is an attempt to be objective in our comments and analysis. In that regard I would point our very good friend Azalea to the following extract from an OPG RNS :-

"Turning to our projects of 480 MW - Chennai IV 180MW and Gujarat 300 MW - our team has made substantial progress and pre-commissioning trials are underway. Management are prepared for commercial operations to commence at both projects during the next three months. We have also received initial coal shipments for both projects."

The RNS in question was The Half Yearly Report RNS issued on 8th December 2014 (Yes - 2014!).

We rely on the BoD to know what they are doing (including how things work in their home country and how long they take)and we rely on them for the accuracy of their forecasts.

They failed to deliver & the consequences have been seen in the share price. We will also all be somewhat more sceptical/cautious about any future timing guidance given on any future OPG projects. Actually, when I say we will all be somewhat more sceptical I should really say we will all - with one exception! - be more sceptical.

Anyway, the construction has been completed, output is increasing and so hopefully things will now improve from here. Only a 50% share price increase needed to get back to the previous high!!! ;-)

best wishes

[marvelman] 03/6/2016 12:23

There was a lot more depth to his workings than plain guesswork Azalea. I neither support nor dismiss his work but appreciate the information he has shared with us in order that we can come to our own conclusions. He very clearly states that the conclusions he has come to (backed up by a great deal of research) is in his opinion. By definition therefore leaves he leaves it to us to form or own opinions or at the very least demonstrate the contrarian view. The cut and paste technique used so prolifically on this thread does not do.

[azalea] 03/6/2016 12:03

marvelman
So you support JJHev claim that it will be the back end of this year before "we see any material growth in the sp". and his other guesswork? The rise in the share price today and volume buying would suggest that you and he are not supported by a number of significant buyers.

An share price of 80-90p in the next few months is in striking distance, even then a long way from its peak of circa 107p, when generating capacity was modest compared to current levels.

[marvelman] 03/6/2016 11:23

JJHBev

You deserve the courtesy of a thank you for sharing the workings and the sheer diligence of your post rather than dismissive one liners of subsequent posts. So from myself at least...thank you.

[qs99] 03/6/2016 10:54

well at last some blue on this share

[rivaldo] 03/6/2016 10:45

Article about the results not posted here before, including a little broker comment as follows:

http ://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/126292/opg-power-ventures-comes-of-age-126292.html?utm_source=Sign-Up.to&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=7163-352154-PROACTIVITY%3A+London+shale+stocks+get+fracking+boost

Extract:

"Brokers were also quick to praise the company's promise to become dividend-paying in 2017.

"We view OPG's clear commitment to a dividend in FY 2017, with an interim payment this calendar year, as extremely positive," said Adam Forsyth of Cantor stockbrokers.

“We think it reflects the company’s confidence.”

The broker reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating for OPG, with a target price of 130p."

[azalea] 03/6/2016 09:09

CEO
"We believe as India leads global growth amongst major economies, we are uniquely placed to grow our business and our earnings and become the leading developer and operator in the Indian power sector".