Opg Power Ventures Share Discussion Threads

[igoe104] 11/9/2017 13:14

Azalea it will take a lot more than a odd penny rise, to get my juices going. I own shares in a lot of companies, and have big risers with XLM today, and RFX last week.

I will probably add to my current holding sometime next year with opg, I do believe this can be turned around if the management pull their finger out.

[dave4545] 11/9/2017 12:54

Shorts closing perhaps ?

[azalea] 11/9/2017 10:49

igoe104 -your 550

Given this morning's rise, are you still of the same opinion?

[jeffian] 11/9/2017 09:47

This from the Interims -

"Much of the sharp coal price increase experienced in H1 has been mitigated by way of advance purchase orders in the earlier part of the year. Until now, even though Indian coal prices have remained stable over the same period, it has still been cheaper to use imported coal rather than to implement our ability to switch sources.



At 30 September, approximately two thirds of OPG's coal requirements for H2 had already been purchased. Due to the average costing basis of coal consumed, we expect additional pre-tax costs of approximately £7 million to be reported in the current year based on recent and forecast price trends."

[andycapp1] 11/9/2017 09:40

Possibly but it is Indonesian coal and given everyone else might be trying to hedge it might make a hedge too expensive v the hoped for cheaper coal. But I'd have hedged my debt certainly. I think they hedge 1/3 of use which does go some way to covering debt I guess. They can hedge a global index which is a proxy for Indonesian coal.

[dave4545] 11/9/2017 09:21

Moving fast online. Guess there is more delayed buys to show. Nice 54k buy at a premium and mm's want 27.9p now so every chance we will see 30p very soon again and hopefully today or tomorrow as more and more people chase the bounce.

[dave4545] 11/9/2017 08:48

Worth holding for results which should give the shares a good bounce when they show this drop is a total over-reaction to possible higher coal prices next year.

Just wondering. Can you not hedge against things like that. Surely they can sacrifice
a small amount of money and hedge ?

[andycapp1] 10/9/2017 10:24

Goldy it's definitely a problem afflicting the whole industry. Certainly not an OPG issue but OPG probably a little better off as its plants are more efficient. So I agree the industry needs to recapture margins through higher prices - which the PPAs allow albeit with a lag - or coal prices fall back. The issue is the IPP model as demonstrated by AES, Ipower etc has not traditionally generated good equity returns. Much better an integrated model which gives you some stickiness via customers. I've said I think the right EBITDA multiple is maybe 6x which if they can get to a sustainable 8p of earnings probably gives (backsolving) an equity value of book or bit above so 60p. That's why I bought at 40p and why I've doubled up at 26 odd p. But it's going to be messy for a year or so!

[azalea] 10/9/2017 08:45

TOG
Given that OPG total annual thermal coal imports are a fraction of India's current circa 190m tons; would it not be a virtual certainty that the company is not alone in being hurt by coal price rises?

[the original goldbug] 09/9/2017 18:17

The bottom line is that India needs a period of decent profitability in the industry to attract capital to build base power for the country.

Returns on capital have been depressed due to the 'promoter play financing model', that is to say large projects on guaranteed long term offtakes. Those guys are haemorrhaging big time. The new nuke in TN met power demand growth for 3-4 years, but I tell you, it's a hell of a thing to get one of these built and with ever militant Nimbyism we are talking 10 years plus.

AndyCapp mentioned he is meeting with Gupta at the end of the month, and if he's nice and doesn't bark too much he may just be able to find out whether the coal price rise has hurt only OPG (in which case we can indulge in a night of the long knives) or whether the whole sector is facing cost inflation which is not sustainable unless prices are allowed to rise above agreed inflation rates. As price inflation in the general economy has been more acquiescent, and oil prices appear to be stable, perhaps Delhi will recognise the need to allow for a period of material price increases in the power sector.

[turbocharge] 09/9/2017 11:35

Might be of interest



hxxps://www.indonesia-investments.com/news/todays-headlines/coal-price-expected-to-fall-up-to-late-october-2017/item8081

[igoe104] 08/9/2017 14:55

azalea getting excited a tad too soon, young man.

[dave4545] 08/9/2017 14:13

27.61p to buy on a 26.5-28p spread will not be long before it starts going higher
again. Looks like all those 100k buys this morning cleared the overhang.

[jozo] 08/9/2017 13:51

It's too entertaining to use the filter!

[turbocharge] 08/9/2017 13:02

Feel free to use the filter

[andycapp1] 08/9/2017 12:11

I know, I know he spouts illiterate, misleading tosh. I suspect he's employed by OPG to write ever positive, but misleading rubbish. He should be barred!

[jozo] 08/9/2017 12:05

Wtf azelea - may I suggest you get some help!

[azalea] 08/9/2017 11:23

A 5% rise on the bid, since earlier this week; more to come. Sellers are selling themselves short, but who can blame them - a bird in the hand....

[dave4545] 08/9/2017 09:03

Overhang clearing ?

I was being bid over mid price before the tick up.

[turbocharge] 07/9/2017 19:37

Inside Bar Short-Term Bullish signal generated on 6 Sep 2017
(the balance between buyers and sellers, recently dominated by the bears, is evening out, with the possibility of higher prices ahead)

Volume 386,068
Close Price 26.25
Pattern Duration 2 days
Inbound Trend Duration 5 days

[dave4545] 07/9/2017 15:48

100k delayed buy at full offer 26.5p. Still buy now at 26.28p

[dave4545] 07/9/2017 15:22

26.1-26.3 ever so slowly improving. Need more buying volume now