Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[horsefeathers] 16/6/2022 07:58

Serious companies don't RNS contract wins, that's just more hype. Winning contracts is what companies are supposed to do, that's why they are in business. Those wins are already in the forecasts and market expectations, they are not incremental. The only RNS that matters is when ORPH announces £25m revenue and £2.5m EBITDA for H1 2022, and does so in a trading update in July (not December). Then we will believe it, otherwise it's just more hype and jam tomorrow.

[lfdkmp] 16/6/2022 07:28

Tomorrow's jam been arriving big time.

Not noticed the recent RNSs?

[horsefeathers] 16/6/2022 07:20

Si, with respect I think you may be missing the point. Look at the last few words of qackers' post: all of this purported orphan-related activity which was sold to investors (in the admission document, no less) when ORPH was created via the combination of Venn and hVivo should by now be "generating recurring revenue for the Enlarged Group". So how much revenue is being generated from this "rare disease digital data-driven platform" which "forms a core element of Open Orphan’s strategy". We are not told, we can assume it is negligible or they would be hyping it. We do know that Venn is going backwards (revenue down from £7.8m in 2020 to £7.0m in 2021) and that hVivo barely breaks even at the gross margin level. So the point is that the reality never lives up to the hype. They should rename the company "Jam Tomorrow Plc".

[si derman] 15/6/2022 20:34

"why is this company called Open Orphan?"
Jeeze, is this a wind up or have people just run out of ideas on how to de-ramp.

What about that logo, eh?
Only shows a small part of the world. Does this mean we are limited to working in just that area? And the land is blue. WTF is going on here?

[m5] 15/6/2022 16:07

I thought your work was done?

[chica1] 15/6/2022 15:30

Look like there is a bear raid going on here for a while from what I can see.Lots of new shorts popping up over the last few weeks looking to squeeze every penny out of scared longs.
It's up to management now to turn the tide.I thought Leo Toole was very weak in the end of year report.
Numbers need to be hard and not wishy-washy!

[bobsworth] 15/6/2022 13:45

Open Orphan is named after a beauty place on west coast of Ireland - Cathal Friel country. The place is beautiful & prosperous.

[digger2779] 15/6/2022 12:21

So did we win another contract yesterday or was it all a dream? May as well shut up shop at this rate.

[supernumerary] 14/6/2022 23:50

Horse - are you tikhy's alter ego? Six posts since 2019, all in the last week, and all of them having a pretty mindless go at OO...

[horsefeathers] 14/6/2022 22:28

why is this company called Open Orphan? It has nothing to do with orphan drugs / rare disease, as far as I can tell. Yet another example of hype and BS, with no basis in reality. The whole thing is a house of cards.

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2022 19:43

Roley,
"announced £15m and change at end Dec. I was advised that £17m and change end March and I gather through £20m as of this week."

lol..
Current cash as of resulta. End of Dec is pointless as it's nearly 6 months ago.


They had no problem publishing their current(as of 31st May) cash balance when they announced their fy2020 results on 17th June 2021.

"Cash and cash equivalents of GBP15.1m as at 31 May 2021 "



Plus they said cash should build back strongly by year end and it didn't..
More questions than answers..
;-)


In their fy2020 Annual Report they stated:

" As at 31 December 2020 cash and cash equivalents were £19.2m. Cash as of end May was £15.1m, reflecting the expected release of customer prepayments in H1 2021, which should build back strongly by year end as we close contracts for execution in 2022"


As you can see from the fy results the cash did not build back strongly by year end. They ended fy2021, Dec with £15.7m.


"I was advised that £17m and change end March and I gather through £20m as of this week. Let's see what they announce at the trading update shall we?"


They told you privately, honest guv..
We just had an update and they didn't publish the current cash...

That raises doubts as to why..

[roleybirkin] 14/6/2022 19:31

Where's the profit? How much current cash do they have? They won't say.
says sikhthetech...

You are on a roll today.

How much current cash do they have? - announced £15m and change at end Dec. I was advised that £17m and change end March and I gather through £20m as of this week.

Let's see what they announce at the trading update shall we?

[roleybirkin] 14/6/2022 19:27

Well they haven't impressed the house broker. Finncap haven't upped their 44p target
says sikhthetech...

That did make me laugh. Thank you...
Given market conditions, we must all keep our sense of humour, and that was very funny.

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2022 17:29

M5

"I suppose announcing 30m of contracts in a month is nothing. Come on lets at least be sensible."

Well they haven't impressed the house broker. Finncap haven't upped their 44p target, which, despite those contracts, the tp hasn't changed for several months.



"Analysts at finnCap have left FY22 forecasts unchanged, given the majority of revenues from this contract are expected to be recognised in 2023; however, they added that they believe that contracts signed to date underpin FY 2022 revenues, subject to client scheduling, and that revenue visibility into 2023 visibility continues to build. It reiterates its target price of 44p."

[shandypants2] 14/6/2022 16:46

Horse - for someone not deramping your 5p valuation is clearly pathetic. For balance based on £50m rev and £7m EBITDA for 2022 - confirmed by OO and supported by broker BTW using 2x revenue (plus a conservative 5p for spin offs and 2p cash) i get a 22p valuation.
Based on your 20 x EBITDA that's £140m or 21p per share. Of course if you think OO is lying about 2022 revenues and your 5p valuation is realistic i assume you sold out today.

[m5] 14/6/2022 16:23

HorseFeathers14 Jun '22 - 15:09 - 4031 of 40320
m5 - are you saying that ORPH is "delivering nothing, burning cash, and has a ridiculous valuation" ? You said it.

I suppose announcing 30m of contracts in a month is nothing. Come on lets at least be sensible.

[sikhthetech] 14/6/2022 15:17

horse,

"Of course the investment is in the parent company's shares, as that is the listed entity."

Exactly. That's the point.
PIs own shares in a company which made a £1.5m loss.

Questionable corporate structure, missed expectations/deadlines, spin offs stopped due to 'market conditions', Polb spin off a mess etc
;-)

[horsefeathers] 14/6/2022 15:09

m5 - are you saying that ORPH is "delivering nothing, burning cash, and has a ridiculous valuation" ? You said it.

stt - you need to do some homework. Of course the investment is in the parent company's shares, as that is the listed entity. The results of all the companies in the group consolidate up into the parent. It doesn't matter if the parent on a standalone basis is making a huge profit or a huge loss, it owns all the profits and losses of the subs so it is the consolidated group numbers that matter. The fact that it is not publishing its standalone P&L is immaterial, 99% of companies do that. This is a red herring, you should drop it.