Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[klosters65] 07/6/2022 22:40

Chica. You make some good points. You are clever, so up your game and please do not be so unnecessarily objectionable. Then , just maybe, people would debate with you, rather than you being a lonely voice of ridicule.

[chica1] 07/6/2022 22:02

It's good Friel is out.
There's no skeletons here.Hvivo is a decent company

[hotteruk6] 07/6/2022 22:00

Results pretty much in line with expectations. I don't know what some of you were expecting but these are great YOY results with the outlook ahead even better. Conservative value is 3 x 2022/23 sales, so £150 million or 22p. Health related stocks always fair quite well in a market downturn or recession too so a possible rerating due to sector too. This is a safe investment, Imo.

[jason_scrap] 07/6/2022 21:38

CF taking a lesser role and letting Mo take the reigns... that can't be a good thing. Reckon we start seeing some skeletons jumping out the closet over the coming months... watch this space

[sikhthetech] 07/6/2022 21:17

There you go... as expected, so predictable ..



sikhthetech - 07 Jun 2022 - 12:11:17 - 3878 of 3900 OPEN ORPHAN-INVESTOR
There you go, as expected, vague, questionable corporate structure and lots of promises of jam tomorrow.

How can a loss making company with jam tomorrow be worth £100m?

Given it's only 3 weeks until the end of H1, they would have known the expected cash balance for end of H1, in 3 weeks time. It would have helped investors see how much cash has been used over the past 6 months.

Funny how they comment about the successful Polb spin off but fail to mention that despite the lock in period ending 7 weeks ago, some PIs are still waiting for their shares!!

At least the share price is close to Finncap's 44p target... oh wait
At least they've announced the long awaited DiM spin off.. oh wait!!
At least they've announced the promised dividend... oh wait!!
At least Polb share price is surging ahead... oh wait!!

lol

[mr hangman] 07/6/2022 20:35

Best cut out the middle man, just flush them straight down the toilet

[si derman] 07/6/2022 19:47

Wally has posted a comprehensive set of notes of tonights presentation over on LSE if anyone missed it. fwiw.

[chica1] 07/6/2022 19:14

Well who's loading up tomorrow?

DIM is growing dimmer by the day.

[sikhthetech] 07/6/2022 17:21

Let's see if they actually state how much cash they expect to have at end of H1.

It's only 3 weeks until H1 end, so they must know.

[nathanr999] 07/6/2022 16:45

Investor meet company I believe 6pm.

[djj2014] 07/6/2022 16:40

Could someone please advise where we can see the investor presentation?

[m5] 07/6/2022 16:05

I am not sure that is correct tbh.

[owenga] 07/6/2022 15:54

Pipeline is contracted revenue, so real and not jam tomorrow.

[inaminute] 07/6/2022 15:15

Good points KS and that is what I am focussed on. Growing business in expanding area should give benefits straight to the bottom line

[owenski] 07/6/2022 14:56

Vox interview -

[king suarez] 07/6/2022 14:02

On the face of it an ok final set of results, but a poor 2nd half in comparison to H1, as commented on by others.

I think as revenue increases we will start to see an exponential improvement in profitability. The problem is that employee costs are relatively fixed, accounting for c£16m in year.

When you exclude 'exceptional costs' I make H1 operating profit £220k and H2 operating profit £103k.

It looks on the face of it a bad second half, but I can actually see margin improvement, despite lower revenue.

Take H1 costs of £21.5m - deduct the HY fixed employee costs of c£8m and you have the additional project costs of £13.5m. £13.5m marginal cost as a % of H1 revenue (£23.2m) is a 58% marginal cost (or 42% marginal revenue) for associated project work.

H2 costs of £14.6m - deduct the HY fixed employee costs of c£8m and you have additional project costs of £6.6m. £6.6m marginal cost as a % of H2 revenue (£15.8m) is a 42% marginal cost (or 58% marginal revenue) for associated project work. So you can see the revenue generated in H2, whilst lower than H1, is driving a higher margin (as we would expect with the bigger contract values?)

Put another way, ORPH have relatively fixed annual costs of c£16m (employee salaries) and so if they can do £50m revenues in 2022, with a similar margin to H2 2022 that would see profits swell an additional £6.6m on the extra £11m revenue generated over FY 2022.

Get revenue to £70m and we have an additional £18.5m profit over 2021.

Currently the business is marginally profitable at revenue around £40m, but highly scalable as the project revenue is extremely value accretive - they just need a bump up to scale a little more above based fixed costs for this to be visible.

[sikhthetech] 07/6/2022 13:45

Finncap have had their 44p target for months...

Now fy2021 results out, the share price is nowhere near their 44p...in fact at 15p it's around 1/3 of their tp!!

Just goes to back up my assertion that brokers tp should be taken with a huge pinch of salt.. You have to be naive to base your research solely on broker's tp.

[rivaldo] 07/6/2022 13:40

Worth noting that these results beat Finncap's forecasts for adjusted EBITDA and PBT, and the £15.7m cash pile was also ahead of forecasts.

Finncap retain their 44p target rpice.

They summarise:

"The year-end order backlog increased 11% to a record £46.0m, which stood at £64.25m (+40%) on 31 May 2022, due to five contract wins in 2022, the most recent of which was a landmark £14.7m contract from an existing top five pharma company. This provides us with the confidence that the company should deliver on FY 2022 forecasts, but it shows that hVIVO is a trusted partner for global players seeking to leverage the increased adoption of challenge models. Management is focusing on driving utilisation rates at its facilities, helped by its expanded recruitment programme, which enables it now to provide volunteers for Phase 2 and 3 field trials.

We reiterate our 44p target price, based on a sum of the parts valuation. Of this, the core business is valued at 33p (4.4x 2022 EV/Sales), which reflects the strong revenue growth (+33%) and arguably the company’s unique expertise and strategic positioning."

"- Forecasts. We are leaving forecasts unchanged for the time being, which implies revenue growth of 33% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 149% with margins expected to rise 670bps to 14.3% and on track towards the 20% target. We forecast year-end cash of £17.1m and net debt of £16.8m.

- Valuation. Despite the pull-back in the broader market, we leave our target price of 44p unchanged. This is based on a sum of the parts valuation, with the core business valued at 33p (based on 4.4x 2022 EV/Sales), c.9p for its non-core assets and 2p of cash."

[chica1] 07/6/2022 13:29

God I do hope Friel is on the CC.
I think it's only Mo and Leo but I'm going to rip him a new one if he attends!

[sikhthetech] 07/6/2022 12:53

trout
"There was a trial that didn’t happen as the client could not get the MHRA to sign off."

That's why I believe potential work in pipeline carry little weight..


sikhthetech - 15 Mar 2022 - 21:03:47 - 3061 of 3883
<...>
£75m pipeline is just that, jam tomorrow, which may not happen.
<...>

[pigeonfeeder] 07/6/2022 12:52

Zeus19 did you actually read the results?

They clearly show a loss for the year of £185k.

[lazarus2010] 07/6/2022 12:42

glad I sold out quite some time ago.

My decision was based on DIM news going very quiet. It was expected (by me at least) to be the real company maker as soon as they did a deal with all the big smart watch producers to license the data. DIM launch was first mooted end of 2020, now 18 months later and still no news. Fkng abysmal performance by CF, bigged everything up and has thus far failed to produce the expected prolific growth and spinoffs. Only POLB completed and that spin off started the continuous decline in the share price

Hopefully things will change and the increased capacity (and costs?) will start to pay off and not just be a drag on revenues! GLE