Open Orphan Share Discussion Threads

[troutisout] 08/6/2022 10:35

R&D tax credits have to be recognised somewhere, they will have come from a previous period and get paid in this one.
I posted yesterday about the postponed trial from last Autumn and Mo confirmed that last night in the presentation. I had actually believed it was canned but he said delayed until this year.
This was a trial booked in and then delayed, they couldn't bring another forward so it led to a vacant period in the quarantine facilities and therefore a drop in expected revenue (I thought the revenue drop would be worse).

"This antiviral study will be conducted by hVIVO. AIM IT will be the study sponsor of the Phase 2 human challenge trial, which is expected to commence in Q4 2021. The Company expects the majority of revenue from the contract to be recognised in the current financial year."

They take some money on signing of contracts and then some on the screening of volunteers etc, the final payments on competion of the trials, so the money coming in one half or another can be lumpy and not show the true spread of work over the whole year.
Several Venn contracts renew at the beginning of the year, which are annual but booked in H1.
Covid Characterisation study work were also completed in H1 and utilised the Royal Free facilities, so did not affect existing work at ORPH's facilities in H1, so a bit of an added extra.
Plenty of reasons, but to judge ORPH on their last half figures misses most of them and that a bigger picture on revenues needs to be used.

[horsefeathers] 08/6/2022 10:30

can somebody please explain to me how they announced £39m revenue, then you look at the detail and see that over £2m of the "revenue" is tax credits. that's not revenue under any definition. with £22m revenue in the first half of 2021, they only did £16m in the second half, so the revenues went down by 25% from H1 to H2. how are they going to make £50m in 2022 when they have a run rate of £16m per half? these were not great numbers in their announcement.

[toyin] 08/6/2022 10:28

Horse, you need to watch the presentation last night. Leo explains the lumpiness in revenue and a delayed contract in q4 that has gone into 2022, he also states that the £50m for 2022 is already 100% contracted. Watch from 50m 35s to answer your questions.

[horsefeathers] 08/6/2022 10:14

can somebody please explain to me how they announced £39m revenue, then you look at the detail and see that over £2m of the "revenue" is tax credits. that's not revenue under any definition. with £22m revenue in the first half of 2021, they only did £16m in the second half, so the revenues went down by 25% from H1 to H2. how are they going to make £50m in 2022 when they have a run rate of £16m per half? these were not great numbers in their announcement.

[m5] 08/6/2022 10:12

owenski 8 Jun '22 - 09:18 - 3917 of 3918

Good post, but traders are part and parcel of the markets, every share has them and I doubt many have made money recently quite the opposite. If MO continues to deliver the share price will take care of itself. We should see a shake out of people that are throwing the towel in and we can build again. Confidence needs to be restored. Personally I am forgetting about the spin offs, if they happen it will be a bonus, lets just grow the core business.

[inaminute] 08/6/2022 09:20

If you have better then sod if and prove it. The irony about conceit is wonderful.

[owenski] 08/6/2022 09:18

Todays announcement looking like a shift towards a more corporate profile.

With over 600m shares in issue OO has too much liquidity and attracts traders, pretty much most dealing here is with fickle traders and that's all that's happening here today, IMO, is traders selling attracting more selling.

I think it was mentioned in a question last night that they are looking to pitch at institutions, the tone of the presentation is now factually based rather than the enthusiastic hype that used to be presented - and such hype is what attracts frothy traders in the first place - I've a lot of respect for CF's capabilities, but he isn't the right person to pitch a corporate standard that is required to sell the OO investment case to institutions, Mo as CEO is. CF's skill set is utilsed behind the scenes.

The company has been built and turned around - courtesy of CF's skill set - and now the business as a CRO is being driven and growing with a CEO that has a relevant background for this stage.

I also wonder if it would be helpful to consolidate the share issue, 300m or less in issue rather than 600m, still retains enough liquidity for trading but tends to take it out of the penny punt brigade focus.

[qackers] 08/6/2022 09:17

Maybe that was Mo buying. He did say, when questioned in last nights webinar, that he was going to buy when allowed to.

[troutisout] 08/6/2022 09:06

There you go, MMs drop it down, UT buyer comes in and scoops some up, share price goes up, MMs drop it down, UT buyer comes in and scoops some more up, share price goes up, MMs drop it down, UT buyer comes in and scoops some more up, share price goes up.....

You see the pattern, if you want bigger II investors and there are not going to be any funding rounds, this is how they accumulate, the market is captured until they are filled....

[sos100] 08/6/2022 08:46

wish someone would just bid for this...

30p and i'm out

[arab3] 08/6/2022 08:37

Did it make anyone want to buy ?

[jason_scrap] 08/6/2022 08:35

5p this would look attractive imho

[jason_scrap] 08/6/2022 08:30

Single digits soon

[owenga] 08/6/2022 08:29

Doesn't look like yesterday's webcast went down that well.

[bobsworth] 08/6/2022 08:28

Selling is just relentless.

[owenski] 08/6/2022 08:10

Last nights results webcast -

[toyin] 08/6/2022 07:41

Yes, Great update Elric. Thank you.

[realcooltrader] 08/6/2022 07:32

I see that Martin has seven years’ experience in disposals and spin-outs, should be very useful.

[realcooltrader] 08/6/2022 07:19

Cheers Bobsworth and an excellent summary Elric, many thanks.

[davew28] 08/6/2022 07:11

New NED appointment. Another piece in the jigsaw. Martin brings 30 years of corporate development experience in the CRO, healthcare and pharmaceutical sectors, holding a number of senior roles at healthcare AI businesses. Martin has expertise in executing multi-billion dollar deals across Europe and the US, architecting end-to-end portfolio out-sourcing deals, and negotiating multi-year research partnerships.

[inaminute] 08/6/2022 07:04

Perhaps the lippy ones could suggest a better investment as we move forward. Doubt it