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OTB On The Beach Group Plc

139.40
3.00 (2.20%)
24 May 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
On The Beach Investors - OTB

On The Beach Investors - OTB

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
On The Beach Group Plc OTB London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
3.00 2.20% 139.40 16:35:12
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
133.00 133.00 139.40 139.40 136.40
more quote information »
Industry Sector
TRAVEL & LEISURE

Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 18/5/2024 11:51 by alotto
Thanks Adam. So the cash on the balance sheet is working capital and OTB can't release it as a dividend, unless they want to get into debt. The latter should be considered as an option imo. Interest on debt (4/5/6%?) is smaller than the reurn an investor can make if the capital is released as a dividend. If the management considers the company itself more profitable than the interest paid on debt they should consider to implement a buyback program (50-100 mln). That will help in future paying a dividend to shareholders as the dividend would be distributed among a smaller number of shares in issue.
Many companies (e.g., utilities) have a huge debt, they can service it and pay a good dividend. But their income is very reliable. Maybe OTB cannot rely on a consistent income in order to operate a similar financial model without a great risk to go broke (e.g., the next pandemic(s), like Bill Gates and other experts expect more frequent waves of global pandemics in the near future, of course I hope they are worng from a human and economic standpoint).
Posted at 14/5/2024 14:27 by paleje
IC's view a couple of hours ago:-

On the Beach expects record summer
A distribution agreement with Ryanair is a big deal for the business

May 14, 2024
by Christopher Akers


Dividend reinstated
Attractive valuation
On the Beach (OTB) lost over a tenth of its value after it published interim figures, as investors took fright at muted budget holiday growth of 1 per cent. Given that the shares jumped earlier in the week, however, the effect is largely neutral. Plus, growth is generally strong: the online beach holiday retailer achieved a record total transaction value (TTV) last year, and forecasts "another record summer" ahead as demand for its premium and long-haul travel options strengthen markedly.

The performance supported the reinstatement of the dividend. This was expected but still backs up the thesis that things are moving in the right direction for the company.

OTB:LSE
On The Beach Group PLC

1mth
Today change
-12.77%Price (GBP)
146.19
Group-wide TTV rose by 22 per cent to £598mn in the six months to 31 March, helped by a 15 per cent rise in customer bookings and higher prices. Summer forward order TTV is up by more than a fifth against last year. It seems that post-pandemic demand has normalised at higher levels.

TTV was up 41 per cent in the higher-margin, premium holiday division, helping it take 34 per cent of the business-to-consumer sales mix. Long-haul TTV soared by 61 per cent. On the other hand, cost of living pressures suppressed value holidays growth.

A distribution agreement with Ryanair (IE:RYA), signed in February, removes a drag factor on the valuation and ends a longstanding legal dispute between the two companies. On the Beach customers now have "free and fair access to Ryanair's seat supply", meaning they can benefit from additional flight capacity.

Elsewhere, the company announced a rejig of its smaller business-to-business (B2B) operations amid stiff competition. It will move to a single brand and platform under the Classic Collection moniker.

The shares trade at 11 times forward consensus earnings, a material discount to the five-year average of 20 times. We remain of the view that a rerating is in order. Buy.
Posted at 14/5/2024 12:53 by zam1
Investors chronicle today says buy re-rating is in order. Seems to be showing 0.90p dividend reinstated.
Posted at 14/5/2024 11:11 by adamb1978
Yes John. Lots of sectors face seasonality - retailers, holiday cos, hospitality, customer electronics and various others.

As an investor, you either accept that seasonality or move on to different sectors.
Posted at 14/5/2024 09:14 by london07
Anyone surprised if OTB finishes blue by COP today? How many times have we seen this.

When investors actually read the results, they will realise, OTB should be 10% up not 10% down lol


hxxps://www.insidermedia.com/news/north-west/on-the-beach-targets-further-growth-after-strong-first-half
Posted at 10/5/2024 08:16 by adamb1978
Yes, the 145p level looks like its been support for a while and am expecting decent results on Tues given other industry participants. Think OTB is cheap, and will have excess capital this year, meaning a return to dividends which, whilst I'm not too bothered by yield, will attract some other investors in
Posted at 27/2/2024 21:00 by milliecusto
Struggling to see why this news would lift share price to over 200p, no real conclusion on impact to revenue and how this translates to the bottom line, as we see markets cooling, noted especially in America, see a retrace to round about 130's as investors start realise may have got spiked today
Posted at 29/1/2024 16:26 by paleje
On 24 Dec the Times Lucy Tobin posted a reco for OTB, her view was positive and nothing much has changed, Shore Capital fair value was 220p. Targets are higher. Truth is they'd already reassured the market in their trading update so the actual results had nothing to add and the share price stalled then started sliding and by Friday broke 160p which I guess would have triggered some stop losses then sells beget more sells. This is a truly rotten market. From the Times article:-

.......But while investors have clearly spotted the sunnier outlook, the shares have further to go. On The Beach is still trading 50 per cent lower than the £5-£6 level seen before the pandemic, and has a valuation of nine times forward earnings, down from a five-year average of 20 times. The firm has announced the return of the dividend next year following a pandemic-imposed pause, while it is cash generative and now debt-free with cash reserves above £75 million.

Investors’ worries about a heavy marketing spend to build the brand in the luxury travel market have also been allayed: marketing costs fell from an elevated 45 per cent to 38 per cent of core UK revenues.

There are decent expansion opportunities for On The Beach, which currently has only a 5 per cent share of Britain’s premium travel sector and a 2 per cent market share in long haul. Shore Capital said that the company is “walking on sunshine”. Katie Cousins, an analyst at the broker, is cautious about the very competitive travel industry, but still reckons a £2.20 share price would provide fair value, pointing out that the company is enjoying “strengthening tailwinds into 2024”, with record forward bookings and “robust” demand.
Posted at 24/12/2023 07:54 by bigbigdave
On The Beach is the place to be
Brits are still showing their appetite for a break, but shares in the holiday company have further to go
If you are reading this on a Christmas break somewhere warm, you will understand the appeal of On The Beach, the Manchester-based online package-holiday business. Investors back here in the British drizzle should consider it, too.

Shares in On The Beach are up 14 per cent this year, trading at just over 170p, as the travel business has shown that demand for a bargain break remains high among post-pandemic Brits, even amid the cost of living crisis.

Results for the year to September 30 showed record revenues, up almost a fifth at £170 million, as pre-tax profit almost doubled to £24 million. A pricey marketing push into the premium long-haul market — to the likes of Dubai and the Maldives — appears to be paying off, as does the offer of free access to airport lounges and fast-track security lanes on four and five-star holidays. But the total transaction value (TTV) of On The Beach’s sales was up across the board. There was a 32 per cent lift for its stalwart three-star breaks to destinations such as the Canary Islands and Corfu, and a 74 per cent increase in demand for long-haul. Momentum is continuing: On The Beach’s chief executive, Shaun Morton, has said that winter bookings are up 34 per cent on last year.
But while investors have clearly spotted the sunnier outlook, the shares have further to go. On The Beach is still trading 50 per cent lower than the £5-£6 level seen before the pandemic, and has a valuation of nine times forward earnings, down from a five-year average of 20 times. The firm has announced the return of the dividend next year following a pandemic-imposed pause, while it is cash generative and now debt-free with cash reserves above £75 million.

Investors’ worries about a heavy marketing spend to build the brand in the luxury travel market have also been allayed: marketing costs fell from an elevated 45 per cent to 38 per cent of core UK revenues.
There are decent expansion opportunities for On The Beach, which currently has only a 5 per cent share of Britain’s premium travel sector and a 2 per cent market share in long haul. Shore Capital said that the company is “walking on sunshine”. Katie Cousins, an analyst at the broker, is cautious about the very competitive travel industry, but still reckons a £2.20 share price would provide fair value, pointing out that the company is enjoying “strengthening tailwinds into 2024”, with record forward bookings and “robust” demand.
Posted at 26/12/2021 13:55 by john09
Questor today


———;


Questor: tell me, Santa – will the long awaited stock market crash finally come in 2022?
Questor share tips: a collapse could prove to be the most wonderful time of the year for patient investors


Last Christmas, many investors were still nursing losses from the March 2020 stock market crash. This year, to save them from tears, the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 have cemented their prior year recoveries. They have risen by 11pc and 12pc, respectively, between the start of 2021 and this Christmas.

However, the potential for further gains could be compromised by several risks that increase the likelihood of a stock market downturn in 2022.

Notably, the rate of consumer prices index (CPI) inflation has surged to its highest level for over a decade. The Bank of England has revised its forecast upwards in recent weeks so that it now expects CPI inflation to soar to around 6pc by April.

Rising inflation has already prompted a higher interest rate. Further monetary policy tightening could reduce the appeal of shares relative to other assets. This may act as a drag on the stock market’s performance in the first half of next year.

In addition, the pandemic remains a threat to the economy’s outlook. At present, it is too soon to know whether the new Covid variant, omicron, will cause lockdown measures that disrupt the performance of a variety of industries.

Arguably even more uncertain is the way in which investors react to any reintroduction of Covid containment measures. Indeed, the rich valuations of some stocks suggest they lack an appropriate margin of safety in case future trading conditions are tougher than expected.

Of course, some investors may believe that the stock market will bring joy to the world in 2022 by continuing its recent gains. Further fiscal stimulus in response to the pandemic may catalyse the economy’s performance. Similarly, monetary policy may prove to be less hawkish than would normally be expected during a period of higher inflation due to ongoing uncertain economic conditions.

Moreover, a range of stocks continue to trade on very modest valuations. Industries that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, or which have not been obvious beneficiaries of a shift towards online and sustainability growth trends, could deliver recoveries in the coming months.

As a result, it is impossible to predict with any degree of certainty whether the stock market will crash, soar or tread water next year, or in any year. Instead, focusing on buying shares when opportunities arise, rather than trying to guess whether the current bull market will stay another day, could be a more efficient use of investors’ time.

In Questor’s view, such buying opportunities are far more likely to occur during a market crash. A larger number of high-quality companies could be undervalued while stock prices are falling rapidly. More importantly, company share prices can materially diverge from their underlying value during extreme market conditions.

This may equate to an array of excellent buying opportunities that allow investors to fulfil the first part of a “buy low, sell high” long-term strategy.

Clearly, a falling stock market in 2022 could create significant paper losses that cause distress for investors when they are next driving home for Christmas. However, a large proportion of investors are likely to be net buyers of shares over the coming year.

Even retirees for whom a portfolio of stocks provides a regular income may find they buy a larger amount of shares than they sell due to a lack of opportunities in other asset classes and their partial reinvestment of dividend income.

Therefore, a stock market crash next year could be highly beneficial to a large proportion of long-term investors.

Clearly, many investors will instinctively think: “All I want for Christmas is a continuation of the current bull market.” However, for net buyers at least, there may be just one thing they need. A stock market crash could provide stronger, and more plentiful, buying opportunities that ultimately let it snow profits in the long run.

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