Omega Diagnostics Share Discussion Threads

[barrywhit] 19/1/2020 14:41

gtfc1, trust me they won’t be making the tests locally (Nigeria)....

[gtfc1] 19/1/2020 13:28

And confirmation it will be made local

[barrywhit] 19/1/2020 11:15

Just some information, Bill and Melinda Gates have just agreed to pay off Nigeria’s $76million debt to Japan that Nigeria accrued trying to eradicate Polio. There are some good people in the world...

[rivaldo] 19/1/2020 08:57

Momentum is really building nicely now.

Great article found by longshanks, and more coverage here - it's interesting to see that the price is expected to be $6 per test, as this is a whopping 20% more than the $5 assumed by Finncap in their calculations.....



Extract:

"Concerning cost and retail, the Nigerian Representative, Omega Diagnostics Limited, Alh. Majekodunmi Aborode, said, “It is going to be $6 per test kit, which is about N2,000, compared with the ordinary CD4 machine in a conventional lab.

“It is less expensive, it does not require any maintenance, it do not require any electricity; also you will know your count result in 40 minutes."

And featured here too:



I like this comment:

"We know that they are capitalists, but these people are capitalists with a human face,” he explained."

[barrywhit] 18/1/2020 19:01

We should see a few more orders filtering through via other distributors after the Nigerian Approval....

Visitect(R) CD4 350 cut off test commercialisation activities progressing with distributor agreements signed for Nigeria, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Zambia, Kenya, Columbia, Indonesia, Guatemala, Cameroon, Uruguay and Brazil with agreements under negotiation covering a further five countries

[barrywhit] 18/1/2020 13:40

60% margin Dibs on the tests..

[raskal] 18/1/2020 13:26

I Norti Raskal King of the Castle have consulted my distant kinsman Krusty the Klown has been assisting in the divination using a glass orb into which he casts his gaze. There appears in the ball of crystal a margin of 60%. Also payment from the land of 401 deceivers. Norti counteth not any thing until there is treasure in his vault. BEWARE

[dibs61] 18/1/2020 13:03

Does anybody know how much it costs ODX to produce a single Visitect CD4 test?

[dibs61] 18/1/2020 12:52

Longshanks - I hope you don't mind but I will post your link onto LSE for followers there? I too agree the news yesterday is significant and no way has the market properly cottoned on yet. I suppose my only short term concern (and it's a positive one) is will they be able to keep up with demand? Colin King stated that they would aim to get as many of the 250k order from Nigeria completed before year end (31 March)but there seemed to be the hint of a doubt. Of course, if not, the remainder will simply go into next years numbers. I think we can clearly expect further orders from Nigeria in the Spring.

The other thing that really caught my attention was the possibility of other applications for the test such as TB and Malaria monitoring plus detecting response to medicine. I am not sure this is built into either ODX's or Finncaps projections and if it materialises could significantly raise the number of tests sold.

All in all yesterday was another milestone, a watershed moment. At some point this year when the market accepts the transformation is genuine then we will surely be rerated to an all time high and beyond.

[bomber13] 18/1/2020 10:42

Yesterday’s announcement is significant news indeed .

Nigeria is one of the worst affected African countries by AIDS . About 1.4% of its population or 1.9m people suffer with the disease , and only around half of these sufferers receive antiretroviral treatment . As the article that Longshanks kindly posted suggests , there is a pressing need to use Visitect to test the CD4 cell count of around 600/- Nigerians by the end of 2020 , and Nigeria is only one of 24 countries that Omega is targeting for distribution of the Visitect product . So hopefully , this news will give added momentum to unlocking the potential sales in some of these other countries .

Following ERPD approval for the more advanced Visitect 200 product in September , 2019 , Omega has since said that it was in discussion with aid agencies such as Unitaid , CHAI , PEPFAR , and MSF , and expected some Visitect 200 orders whilst the company completes the remaining WHO pre-qualification programme over the next 5 months . In early December , Colin King , Omega’s CEO , said that the WHO was due to inspect their Alva plant in Scotland this month , and that at about the same time a field evaluation trial would commence in either India or Kenya lasting 4-6 months . WHO approval is therefore likely in June/July , and will be a major catalyst for sales of the advanced test .

At the investor presentation in early December , 2019 , Colin King was bold enough to say that he hoped the actual outcome of Visitect volumes would be 200/- to 300/- tests in 2019/20 , 1m tests in 2020/21 , and 2m to 3m in 2021/22 subject to WHO approval . Given that Finncap has put a 25p target shareprice on Omega on the assumption of 100/- tests in 2019/20 , and 500/- tests in 2020/21 , we must surely be getting ever closer to meaningful upgrades ,

[leedslad001] 18/1/2020 10:40

Hi Barry I think this Nigeria plant will be years away and personally don't think odx will exist then :-)

[leedslad001] 18/1/2020 10:26

600000 people tested by dec 2020 and as said before they have multiple tests so we are talking millions of test strips also Going to be adapted for TB and Malaria and a factory in Nigeria in the future so loads more tests in the future and this is only 1 country

[barrywhit] 18/1/2020 10:23

longshanks,
The only concern for me is the agent has stated they intend to bring a plant to Nigeria (the most corrupt country there is imo) after the India fiasco that's a worry but we will need to hear that from the company....but the numbers look very good and quoted at $6 per test....

[longshanks] 18/1/2020 10:02

Thank Barry.

Reading it again, it strikes me that the number of people they plan to test before December 2020 is actually higher.


They have a target to identify 600k more people in need of ART by the end of the year. To me it sounds like they will need to test nearer 1 million to find those 600k.


It would also appear that they want to use it as a monitoring tool. In that case I guess we can expect to have the test repeated on patients each year and possibly more frequent.

[barrywhit] 18/1/2020 08:34

Interesting article longshanks, a snippet below:

“For CD4 testing, it was used to measure if the patient could fight disease or not; it was also used to diagnose advance HIV, depending on CD4 count,’’ he said.

Mr Majekodunmi Aborode, Nigerian Representative, Omega Diagnostics Limited, assured of the availability of the CD4 testing kit.

“One of the objectives of the company apart from enriching the health sector in the country is economic aspect of it.

“I have discussed with the manufacturer if they can bring the technology to Nigeria and they have promised to bring the plant to the country; that is part of the agreement I had with the manufacturer,’’ he said.

According to him, one Omega Visitect CD4 Rapid Test kit costs six 6 dollars (about N2,160) and it is more avoidable.

“It is less expensive, it does not require any maintenance, it does not require any electricity; also you will know your count result in 40 minutes.’̵7;

Similarly, Mr Araoye Segilola, the National Coordinator, National AIDS/STI and Hepatitis Control Programme, said the kit could be used to test other diseases such as Malaria and Tuberculosis in patients living with HIV.

Segilola, an official of the Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, said the kit could also be used to detect the response of the patient to medicine.

The highlight of the meeting was the presentation of the 35-page report of Laboratory Evaluation of Omega Visitect CD4 Rapid Test Kit to the minister, NAN reports.

[gtfc1] 18/1/2020 08:14

So 600,000 at the $5 mark? 500,000 is worth 10 p so we have 12 p then 😀

[longshanks] 17/1/2020 23:36

News article from Nigeria discussing the application of the Visitect CD4 testhTTps://www.pmnewsnigeria.com/2020/01/17/hiv-nigeria-govt-approves-cd4-rapid-test-kit/Looks like they plan to test 600,000 people by December 2020.

[gwr7] 17/1/2020 16:54

Well done Omega. Onwards and upwards.

[barrywhit] 17/1/2020 16:28

It will be interesting to see any late reported trades....

[upomega] 17/1/2020 15:17

Some decent articles appearing now in the press

[rivaldo] 17/1/2020 14:46

Finncap have retained their 25p target for the moment.

Their current forecast to March'20 only incorporates a total 120k CD4 tests, whereas ODX have already received orders from Nigeria alone for 250k tests and indicated in December that 200k orders could be shipped by the end of March.

At $5 per test this could therefore decent upside to forecasts if ODX can ship 200k or more before April.

Worth reiterating Finncap's closing comment as before:

"Given the potential annual demand for c.6m VISITECT CD4 tests, profits, earnings and target price are very sensitive to supply. For every additional 0.5m CD4 tests sold annually, our target price would rise by c.£15m or 10p per share."

[leedslad001] 17/1/2020 14:38

Thanks Barry we deserve it us long term holders don't want that takeover yet lol

[barrywhit] 17/1/2020 13:49

Enjoy Leeds it's been a long time coming...

[leedslad001] 17/1/2020 13:41

Sat in Valencia having a beer great news for all of us longs next couple of years should be very interesting