Ocean Wilsons (holdings)... Share Discussion Threads

[eezymunny] 12/5/2021 08:50

Indeed flyfisher. I had a big % holding (for me) in OCN, bought near the lows, and have trimmed it right back recently- purely on the likelihood of a significant discount persisting.

A sale of Wilson's could happen at any time of course, but that has been true for decades (and I haven't got many decades left).

I'll keep a decent holding at this price mind you...

[flyfisher] 12/5/2021 08:09

Good to see that you are still around Eezy.
In a rational world yes, but this is a family trust run for the benefit of the family, not the minority shareholders.

[eezymunny] 12/5/2021 07:21

"The gross time-weighted performance of the portfolio YTD is 7.5%. This compares to 9.1% for the MSCI All Country World Index inc. Frontier Markets over the same period."

Hardly diabolical, but in any sane world OCN would simply sell up the portfolio, return cash to shareholders and let them invest it as they wish. IMVHO, which counts for diddly squat...

[pugugly] 12/5/2021 06:57

From todays rns. net asset value per Ocean Wilsons share of US$20.03 (£14.50) per share. The Ocean Wilsons share price of £9.25 at 30 April 2021 represented an implied discount of 36.2%

Diabolical discount and poor performance of the investment portfolio both in absolute terms and relative to the market - They should fire the asset managers (imo)

[flyfisher] 12/5/2021 06:43

A solid update today, it still trades at 32% discount to a SOTP valuation and gives a 5% yield.

[flyfisher] 23/4/2021 07:19

WSON33 share price has risen in excess of 20% in the last 3 weeks, which has not been mirrored by OCN who hold the majority.
Brazilian real has firmed against the $, and the investment portfolio should have had a good Q1.

Perhaps OCN will catch up with events.

[piedro] 18/3/2021 14:42

I've never been taken by the Investment Portfolio.

WSON is where its at

ISRAELI TECH AIDS BRAZILIAN PORT NAVIGATION


- this could give towage and agency operations quite some edge
- AIMHO

[varies] 15/3/2021 10:11

Last of the Mohicans.
How time flies. I had not realised that it is nearly ten years since OCN's share price hit £14. Even if one added back the dividends received during this period, one would probably be showing a loss on any shares bought at £14 ten years ago, certainly in real terms if not nominal.
Let us hope the next ten years prove more profitable for us outside shareholders than the last. I fear like Pugugly that I shall have passed on before the value gets unlocked but I shall enjoy my dividends.

[eezymunny] 15/3/2021 09:39

The market cap is a total nonsense IMO. Wilson Sons holding valued at c. £20m over and above the investment portfolio. As nonsensical as it gets IMO.

All moving targets of course...

[pugugly] 15/3/2021 07:55

"Net Asset Value

At the close of markets on 31 December 2020, the Wilson Sons' share price was R$45.30 (US$8.73), resulting in a market value for the Ocean Wilsons holding of 41,444,000 shares (57.77% of Wilson Sons) totalling approximately US$361.5 million which is the equivalent of US$10.22 (£7.48) per Ocean Wilsons share.

Adding the market value per share of Wilsons Sons of US$10.22 and the investment portfolio at 31 December 2020 of US$8.77 results in a net asset value per Ocean Wilsons Holdings Limited share of US$19.00 (£13.89). The Ocean Wilsons Holdings Limited share price was £8.45 at 31 December 2020."

No sign yet of value being unlocked for shareholders. Bid/offer pre open 810/820. Must be one of the bigget discounts in the market - but most of us may well have passed on before it gets to parity.

[last of the mohicans] 14/3/2021 20:04

EezyMunny

No, I'm sorry but you need to understand the company and its financials much better.

I never said anything linking EPS with the company's value (actual or even possible value).

EPS are linked to dividends, its unsustainable for a business to be earning less than it is paying out in dividends, yes it can be smoothed out for a short period of time, but that's as far as it goes, after that you're building up major problems.

Varies, the fact they farm out the management of the portfolio is part of the problem, if they actually gave the funds to groups capable of making money, we might have a decent sized portfolio by now, the fact they haven't means it's money effectively doing nothing for OCN shareholders but keeps their coy setup going

I think the share price high was in 2011 actually, so 10 years of serious under performance, same for Hansa Trust. (You'll have noted that the trust has a lot of the same holding as in the OCN portfolio itself).

As I said if it wasn't for the one investment they've got right - Findlay Park American (FPA), the whole shareholder base would be up in arms about it all !

They even sold FPA twice, (once I think fully) and then bought them back (not as many as we had originally) if they had the holding would be worth north of $35M right now.

However that would cause them a problem in itself as it would be near or at the upper limit of the amount they are allowed to have in one particular fund!

They've never found other investment to properly complement FPA and thus grow at a similar sort of rate or one that we could describe as acceptable and thus not require FPA to be reduced to stay within the limits.

What was meant to happen from 07/08 as part of shareholders agreeing to the Wilson & Sons float, was that some of the fund would be paid out in dividends, until they realised within 3 years that that wasn't sustainable given all the $ Millions that were being lost in management fees.

Not for out performance, but mediocre results at best.

What I find amazing is the graph's they produce each year as to the funds performance and it always refers to a certain index, well if they'd just invested in that index or mimicked it for the last 10 years, the value of the portfolio would be multiples of what it is now ! but none of them are smart enough to have worked that out !

LOTM

[varies] 14/3/2021 12:24

Lasr of the Mohicans,
I agree with almost every word you say.
The present generation of Walter Saloman's descendants lack his acumen and it is just as well from our point of view that management of the portfolio is farmed out.
We do indeed suffer a double helping of charges on this.
To my mind this unsatisfactory situation is allowed for by the share price but I appreciate that others may think it is not.
The reference to an all-time high in the title to this thread is some 6 years out of date, I believe, and we would obviously all have done better to sell at £14 when we could.
My holding here goes back to the 1980s and I now receive back year after year the capital invested as a dividend : a yield on my cost of about 100%.
So I have a sentimental attachment to OCN which may cloud my judgment.

[eezymunny] 14/3/2021 09:39

LOTM

The EPS numbers aren't a great guide to putting a value on OCN IMO. EPS swings wildly with exchange rate. You need to work harder...

[last of the mohicans] 13/3/2021 20:07

varies,

The investment portfolio is only there to give jobs to the controlling families children, grandchildren and relatives etc

Ocean Wilson's pays its directors to manage the investment fund (which they created for there own purposes).

They then passed it on to Hanseatic I think it was, but might have been renamed now, who ran the Hansa Trust etc, which is why they have control of OCN.

We pay several £ million a year in fees to have the investment portfolio managed by them and all they do is pass it on to other's to manage on there behalf where we end up paying a 2nd lot of fees which for the private equity managers will run in £'s in the so called good years

The portfolio, takes very few risks and is just a mirage, yes there are 40+ holdings which is designed to impress you at first sight until you realise that anything below the top 15-20 has no purpose at all (other than window dressing). They could all double in price and it would hardly affect the value of the portfolio ( and it couldn't happen anyway as some or designed as long-only, other short only, other's neutral)

Its there just to keep the extended family employed with salary's they wouldn't get in the real world.

If it hadn't been for the performance of Findlay Park American fund over the last 10 years there would have been a total outcry from shareholders about the non-returns that were occurring

I thought the Private Equity investments would change things, but they haven't, they haven't choosen the managers wisely and on top of that the sums of money there investing in each one are far to small to generate a meaningful return should they succeed.

LOTM

[varies] 13/3/2021 11:15

Last of the Mohicans
Brazil is indeed in a sorry state with terrible Covid numbers.
OCN's investment portfolio does, however, provide some protection from a downturn at Wilson Sons.
This portfolio seems to be rather cautiously managed, being spread amongst many funds and hedged to some extent against a fall in the US stock market. This policy has not paid off recently.
Whilst accepting that next year's dividend looks insecure, I believe that OCN will provide a good yield in the medium term.

[last of the mohicans] 13/3/2021 01:21

@ EezyMunny,

Yes dividend is being maintained by Wilson & Sons so happy to be proved wrong.

I thought they might have to cut it by 20% or so.

Just been looking through the actual numbers EPS numbers are horrible :( last year they were 42.74 cents this year 27.17 cents (not much difference between basic and diluted in either year)

Dividend payable 54 cents

Yes I know the constant significant currency movements have to be taken into account, but a dividend payment that is 2 times Earnings for the year is totally unsustainable.

Even if you also factor in less capex the next couple of years etc and reduced COVID costs, still not sustainable. They need a significant turnaround in the oil and gas sector to help the numbers as well as a better exchange rate to boost the container terminal overall numbers.

LOTM

[eezymunny] 12/3/2021 23:20

LOTM

Wilson Sons US$ dividend steady by the looks.

www.rad.cvm.gov.br/ENET/frmExibirArquivoIPEExterno.aspx?ID=842052&flnk

" Proposed dividend of US$38.8 million is consistent with the previous year at US$0.54 per
share"

[last of the mohicans] 12/3/2021 17:33

Well tonight UK time Wilson & Sons will release its results for 2020.

I have a feeling that they will be unable to maintain the dividend at the current rate and will reduce it.

That in turn will result in Ocean Wilson's cutting its dividend as well.

I hope I'm wrong, but given the current state of there business's especially the oil & gas sector and the weakness of the Real and an interest rate rise looming. I simply don't think it is possible to maintain the current dividend rate

LOTM

[loudhailer1] 18/12/2020 21:33

At some point the Salomon family cohort will monetise the latent value in Wilson & Sons and the cash proceeds will hopefully be distributed down. In the meantime we holders are being nicely rewarded to remain passive investors.

[royaloak] 02/12/2020 12:20

Spent two years in Brazil, love the country, amazed how weak the Real is, surely it will not remain so low?

Harold Macmillan said Brazil is a country of tremendous potential, and still is! Cannot guarantee my statement is 100% correct, apologies if so, but you understand the gist. I only hold a modest amount but did double up near the lows, I am looking to add at some time.

[podgyted] 26/11/2020 22:34

The problem is as you say "the family run it" - this is a deep value play, but it may take years to play out. The family control the organisation that manages the investment portfolio - their performance over the last few years has been poor at best. Their investment in the ports look good but only if they liquidate - because once again they are a drag on the price.

I'm in for the value - Nirvana depends on whether the family decides to cash in.

That is may view - I also suspect it's why II's stay clear of an obviously good income play with potential growth.

[livingstone20] 26/11/2020 19:32

A nice run up from quarterly results and I think there is still further to go. Once the dividend starts to update in to all the data services this should stand out on filters as a great yield, with Brexit security of if being in dollars. It looks like the family mainly run it for dividend stream so that should have some security, with potential upsides of special dividends if they ever complete a transformational transaction, Real exchange rate reversal from long term low and investments fund growth post vaccine. There must be plenty of smaller company, special situations, emerging markets and high income funds who would be interested in tucking away a few at 7 per cent yield at fairly low risk with scope for capital growth as well.

[piedro] 23/11/2020 12:17

pockstones22 Nov '20 - 19:50 - 1360 of 1365
"... I am not sure it does suit the family for it to stand at a discount indefinitely otherwise why did they try and sell the ports last year?"

Why do you guys think that .... they tried to sell the ports?
What they did was sound out the market.

Just as one might do a dummy run on a share price.
It may or may not lead to a trade
But more important can indicate market sentiment

AIMO

[varies] 23/11/2020 11:17

pockstones
It is difficult (and gratuitous for us as outsiders) to tell what might be in the best interests of the Saloman family but I expect that they and their advisers are well aware of the tax implications of any steps they might take to realise the value of their holdings in OCN and Hansa. I do agree, however, that this is a factor in considering the attractions of OCN shares.
Under the present arrangements the older members of the family can take comfort in knowing that their children's and grandchildren's fortunes are securely invested whereas cash raised might be readily spent, perhaps with disastrous effects.
The annual dividend that I receive is well over the price I paid for my shares and is always very welcome when it comes. I believe that there are few safer investments on this yield.