Oakdene Homes Share Discussion Threads

[spaceparallax] 24/10/2007 15:50

Slap,

As always, time will tell.

OT - I noticed a brokers' downgrade on BDEV a few days back. I suppose it's inevitable that our sps will be affected by the current uncertainty.

[slapdash] 24/10/2007 12:14

yup looking interesting... I think the new build flats here will be affected and especially will the discretionary second homes that they have at Newhaven...

it may be true that demand is greater than supply but it is locations specific.... so London there is huge demand... in Newhaven???? Not a huge amount of jobs there...

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 22/10/2007 15:26

SP seems to be drifting quite a bit - I'll be interested to see whether the strong support around the 140p level holds up. If not, could go quite a bit lower; not that I'll be selling up mind!

[spaceparallax] 05/10/2007 14:31

Trendie,

My IC's in the post - could you briefly summarise please?

[trendie] 05/10/2007 10:00

Good article in Investors Chronicle today.

[spaceparallax] 03/10/2007 13:28

Apart from the Director BUY, not really. However, with the recent share price decline, there's been plenty of ceiling for a recovery.

[loafofbread] 03/10/2007 12:47

Interesting rise. Ideas anyone?

[spaceparallax] 03/10/2007 10:08

CR,

I'm not into shorting.
I think we virtually all share an antipathy towards the poor investor PR displayed by the Company - nevertheless, I'm still in and intend to stay put.

[slapdash] 02/10/2007 23:50

yes personally I think 5k shares is rather pathetic and a token gesture...

most of us PIs on this board if we were going to buy would I'm sure buy more than that....

Slap

[cockneyrebel] 02/10/2007 17:45

I don't suppose you joined me in shorting then a couple of weeks ago spaceparallax?

This co has always looked a little pig to me, results out on the last day of the year after the close and all that.

A 5K director buy is hardly a gung-ho buy with all guns blazing - not bursting with confidence is it?

CR

[spaceparallax] 02/10/2007 16:18

funny to see the Director Buy after today's posts - not a huge amount, but welcome nonetheless.

[slapdash] 02/10/2007 11:36

loafofbread - difficult to say but a lot of the landbank was bought recently...

slap

[spaceparallax] 02/10/2007 11:19

Slap,

Timings do seem odd - that said, a Director Sell is almost always a defining peak by virtue of the succeedding sentiment sells.

Loaf,

The land bank must be worth an awful lot - although that will obviously vary dependant upon market conditions and buyer.

[loafofbread] 02/10/2007 09:03

Anyone any idea how much their land bank is actually worth?

[edmondj] 02/10/2007 08:26

lol, oh so true!

[slapdash] 02/10/2007 08:23

and down she goes... it is curious how these divorces/ and fund raisings often seem to happen at the high...in this case at about £2... Mrs Turpin obviously no fool...

Slap

[slapdash] 26/9/2007 07:57

cashflow statement looks awful...

£17m outflow from operations... increased on last years...

£19m outflow from total operating activites

Only the £15m fund raising stemmed the tide...

The key issue is why can't they generate cash!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

at this stage in teh cycle their position looks precarious.... if lots of their developments don't get buyers...well you do the math..

they have been expanding and buying sites as if there is no potential slowdown on the way.................. been in a boom so long probably can't believe it could end.... idiots....

I can't help feel CEO Turpin gets a bit excited when he has teh company's checkbook around and runs around buying trophy sites... I'm sure he could of bought these sites for much less had he waited till now.... and very scary and patronising by refusing to tell us how much was paid... these latest cashflow figures suggest a lot!!!!

what happens now???? Well no more capacity for debt....eqity fund raising would be difficult .... any housing/flat weakness and they are toast

Slap

[spaceparallax] 25/9/2007 13:48

Slap/Ffedup,

Must confess to not knowing Newhaven well, but I tend to agree with Ffed's example - the reason that the areas have become grotty is because of death of local commerce. The housing development offers a chance to clean the slate and start afresh, whilst using the valuable natural asset of the coastal aspect. I remember how the old dock areas of Hull underwent a tremendous rejuvenation when converted to housing several years ago. Grotty and unloved became chic and desirable in a cery short time.

[ffedup] 25/9/2007 11:48

Let us not get too downhearted about Newhaven. A few years ago Poole in Dorset was quite grotty down by the Quay, and some of the pubs were really rough.Now anywhere near Poole quay is very up market and Sandbanks is one of the most expensive places on the planet. Newhaven is nearer to London and Brighton and the continent.I am sure that Newhaven will come good in time.Oakdene's flats are priced at only£200,000, something similar at Poole quay would cost an awfull lot more.

[slapdash] 25/9/2007 11:13

space have you been to Newhaven????? It is a fairly grotty place.... that is why I say concept... I understand that buy-to-let guys ahve bought lots of flats but will they be able to let them out and will they complete...

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 24/9/2007 13:06

Well Slap,

What with the recent dip and today's drift, it seems that you're not alone. Personally, whilst agreeing with some of your views, I can't agree on your opinions concerning the viability of the OKD coastal developments. I see them as very attractive and offering particular appeal to many buyers, especially those who want to visit Europe easily.

As they say, time will tell.

[slapdash] 24/9/2007 08:13

trouble is OKD is the most geared house builder with many "concept" developments such as Newhaven... i.e. will people want to live/buy there...

And the buy to let brigade won't be buying any more flats for the moment...

there last results show little cash generation.... (why they had to have a placing)... and if lots of people fail to complete on the purchases they will probably have to downgrade the last results...

could be an uncertain future for them.... in a real downturn OKD is a company that will suffer the most..... an they are also most exposed to discretionary spending... Barratt and say Telford homes build within London and around it to a large extent... OKD has concept developments by the coast which depend on second-home buyers and so confidence...

Slap

[spaceparallax] 18/9/2007 15:42

Looking back through the AGM statement OKD promised interims in Sept - presumably they'll give about a week's notice, so we should expect an RNS before close Friday.

[spaceparallax] 17/9/2007 13:41

CR,

Given current event credit squeeze and NR in particular, it's impossible to deny that uncertain times lay ahead in the mortgage market. That said, I believe that in such times, it's the quality developments that sell and the mediocre properties stick - I firmly believe that the OKD pitch is sound i.e. good properties in areas that will continue to be popular.

As always, only time will tell.

[cockneyrebel] 17/9/2007 13:23

spaceparallax - so you missed the 40% decline in builders prior to his interview?

Think about it - OKD homes can be as good value as they like, if the building societies/banks/lenders tighten up on lending criteria as they are bound to do (in fact already doing) it just gets even harder for buyers to afford any house. That's what matters - punters are not going to be able to borrow the multiples and will have to put up higher deposits - that isn't good for builders.

And prices fell 2.6% across the co last month - you can't buck the trend - if others cut prices and OKD don't then the buyers find better bargains elsewhere.

CR