Oakdene Homes Share Discussion Threads

[williebiz] 30/1/2008 13:05

nice summary slapdash

[kristini2] 30/1/2008 13:00

this looks like a sell,
based upon a pe of 4 which is what many housebuilders are on this could drop another 50% from here--
have i got that about right?
anyone know what the debt position is here?

[spaceparallax] 30/1/2008 12:53

Shaky,

What you say is true; however, OKD have been making a habit of this and until the deal is closed, it ain't meaningful.

[shakyhands] 30/1/2008 12:45

Waitaminute.They haven't counted uncompleted deals as profits - which is one of the two major reasons given for the calendar slippage.Of course,some of those deals won't be completed,but some will.

[slapdash] 30/1/2008 10:46

what I think a previous poster is missing is that profits aren't cashflow...

we werew previously told that deals from investors for Newhaven had been completed .. now it appears not....

how many more buyers will pull out???

Slap

[spaceparallax] 30/1/2008 09:47

TS could have been significantly worse. Fortunately, I exited back C120p and so took only part of the fall.

I share many of Slap's concerns, but still feel that OKD have a future and must now make an even more attractive acquisition target. Will continue to watch.

[edmondj] 30/1/2008 09:23

Will take a look.

[loafofbread] 30/1/2008 09:22

Ed J,

Have you got time to run your sliderule over CCT. A bit of a NSB look about it, cash in bank, good T/O, reduced profit forcast and 3ii and management hold 50%. MBO candidate?

[shakyhands] 30/1/2008 08:56

I don't see how the stock is overvalued now.£5m minimum profit puts it on a historic p/e of 6 [at 75p].If it sells some of the 'delayed sale' Newhaven units this year instead of last,it should sustain that. I really would like to see it paying down some of its debt - that would help confidence - we need to get that message across to Turpin.
Now we know why there was no update from the co while the price was falling !

[hybrasil] 30/1/2008 08:39

Stock still way overvalued
Look at the accounts 18m of goodwill take that away, This should be at a discount to Nav Cou;ld go as low as 35p

[williebiz] 30/1/2008 07:18

Housebuilders traditionally first in, last out of recessions & downturns.

They've lived up to the first bit...

[edmondj] 30/1/2008 07:11

Nigel Wray not looking so clever: over-exposed (having last bought at about 200p?) to an illiquid house building share issuing a p warning.

Still worth following but could be shunned for a while:


Oakdene Homes PLC
30 January 2008


Oakdene Homes plc
('Oakdene' or the 'Company')

Trading update


Oakdene, the South East England housebuilding and property development Group,
today announces a trading update for the year ended 31st December 2007. The
Company's preliminary announcement of its final results will be in May 2008.



Oakdene anticipates that its trading profit before tax for the year ended 31st
December 2007 will be materially below market expectations but, subject to
unforeseen circumstances, not less than £5 million. This is principally as a
result of trading during the last 3 months of the year being significantly below
the Board's expectations and two anticipated major transactions not completing
before the year end.



The first was in respect of a bulk sale to investors of additional units at the
Group's flagship Newhaven development. Construction of the first phase
comprising 111 units was completed before the year end, and sales are proceeding
at a satisfactory rate. We therefore expect that these units will now be sold to
individual purchasers during 2008.



The second transaction which did not complete was the sale of a major
development site for which a substantial unsolicited offer had been received.



As has been widely reported, there was a significant slowdown in new housing
demand in the latter part of 2007 as a result of the reduced confidence levels
caused by the difficult credit conditions. As a result, the Company's individual
unit sales were markedly slower in the last three months of 2007, exacerbated by
general adverse press comment on the residential property market.



The Company has a strong land bank and despite the current difficult trading
conditions demand for development land in the South East region remains robust.
The planning applications for our major sites at Newhaven and Southampton are
proceeding well and we anticipate being granted planning approval for Phase 2 at
Newhaven in the first half of this year and for Southampton in the second half.
The grant of planning for these two water facing sites will be for in excess of
1100 residential units plus a small amount of commercial space and, at Newhaven,
the expansion of the existing near 300 berth Marina. The book price of these two
sites is circa £19 million.



Negotiations for the development of the additional land at Newhaven owned by
Newhaven Port & Properties Ltd ('NP&P') are making progress. As we announced in
August 2007, heads of agreement were reached with Societe d'Economie Mixte
Locale de Co-operation Transmanche ('SEML') for the purchase of NP&P which owns
the ferry terminal and 147 acres of residential and commercial developable land
around the sea front and harbour at Newhaven. Following further discussions, it
is now likely that Oakdene will develop the land in joint venture with SEML / NP
&P, which will relieve Oakdene of the obligation to own and operate the ferry
port.



The Board believes that low confidence levels will continue throughout the first
half of 2008 and that margins will remain fairly tight, but that the continuing
high demand for housing in the South East, combined with high employment and
easing credit conditions, will see confidence returning to the market in the
medium- to longer-term. The South East region remains the strongest housing
market in the Country and Oakdene, with its substantial land bank, is well
placed to take advantage of improving market conditions when they occur.

30 January 2008


www.oakdene-homes.co.uk

ENQUIRIES:
Oakdene Homes plc Tel: [phone]
Carl Turpin, Chief Executive

Seymour Pierce Tel: [phone]
John Depasquale/Matt Thomas

College Hill Tel: [phone]
Matthew Gregorowski

[williebiz] 30/1/2008 07:10

Profit warning see RNS

[redtelephone] 23/1/2008 21:15

yewtrees

I dont hold any housebuilding stock now(bought OKD AT £1.41 & SOLD AT £2.12)But before you're tempted with OKD you would be much better off buying Telford Homes(TEF) which are building in the Olympic zone in East London- order book is 'strong' with directors increasing their holdings.

Myself I'm into one of Ngel Wrays other investments Litcomp (LIN) which looks a cracking minnow (£2.3m cap) with 'excellent prospects'.

[spaceparallax] 23/1/2008 13:56

sad to see the 100p level broached - I suspect that we could tumble quite a bit if we fail to close above 100p.

[yewtrees] 23/1/2008 12:11

not a holder, have been following since the shares were £2. would be interested but imo, any builder has got to get away from the building of flats and apartments, houses are needed. i am getting tempted, will be following closely.

[slapdash] 23/1/2008 11:17

however, saying all that checking on their website and quite a few flats seem to have sold...

slap

[slapdash] 23/1/2008 11:03

I think a number of issues here -

Most indebted housebuilder with gearning I think of over 100%

failure to generate cashflow as Turpin has just tried to grow and grow..

Targeting flats and second homes with some potential 'white elephants' i.e. Newhaven and that other development near london where small flats are supposedly worth about £500,000... hmmm.. in other words their developments aren't in areas of massive need such as north london but in concept areas such as the re-develpoment of Newhaven which depend on rich city types buying weekend homes... might not happen now....

CEO is risk happy... i.e. over confident and a massive risk taker...

also integrity of company/management/broker is questionable as forecasts were massively downgraded without a profits warning before

If over-priced appartments don't sell what can they do?? They need the cash flow with the interest to service and given the gearing they can't raise more debt while given the markets it would be hard to raise equity..

I can see the POTENTIAL for a major crisis ahead.... the firm could easily go bankrupt in my view..... It just doesn't have the balance sheet to ride out a protracted slowdown and its product location is all wrong and largely discretionary... sure they could just lob 10% off their flats and this will probably be what they have to do but is that enough?? Maybe they will have to lob off more.. .. but will weekend flats even sell in the current environment when things could just grind to a halt whatever the price...

we shall see... looked at company once but don't trust CEO... (how could anyone but an expansion mad person take on this level of debt for a house builder... especially when you aren't generating cash yet.... absolute madness in a cyclical sector.... the big and diversified housebuilders have much lower gearing but actually generate cash unlike Oakdene so they can support the lower gearing)

Slapper

[spaceparallax] 23/1/2008 10:48

Very difficult to put a value on OKD - they hold a significant landbank and tend to offer a more select product. share price certainly looking sickly.

[hybrasil] 22/1/2008 14:39

In the current market this share is way overvalued. Its worth about 50p

[spaceparallax] 21/1/2008 13:13

Agreed, the acquisition prospect is the main attraction until we develop a better understanding of the housing market outlook.

[shakyhands] 18/1/2008 16:24

Problem is,Space,people who do like property shares - inasmuch as they think they are oversold - go for BDEV or Bovis or Bellway or Persimmon in preference to this smallcap.They'd make a very attractive acquisition,though.Roll on the results - then at least we'll have a better idea of where we are.