O Twelve Estates Share Discussion Threads

[mreasygoing] 22/10/2009 12:54

Top up opportunity time :-

[tts] 19/10/2009 14:32

Im looking for this to be taken over in the next 2-3 weeks!

Just a gut feeling that is all.

[mreasygoing] 16/10/2009 17:49

Held up well today, If it can hold above 10p then 20p is the next target.

I'm looking at this as a 2-3 year investment. Should be much much higher when the Olympics approach.

[reggie2004] 16/10/2009 16:03

ydderF

Don't disagree with you. Another 5p would seem reasonable. All I was doing was presenting the share maths. The company is worth what a person will pay for it and market issues will play a part in their valuation. I would agree with a 15 - 17 pence price today. Tomorrow and on to next year will only increase the value which is why I have bought a number of shares in the company.

Regards Reg

[ydderf] 16/10/2009 15:52

PC Innit and Reggie, your way out imho, the interest rate swap will unwind to zero adding another 18m to nav, they have just tied up finance so why would it unwind? Even a bidder would keep the swap going, it can onlz appreciate since interest rates cannot go below their present levels.....add a5p per share to your calcs, btw values are up 15% from lows in the auction rooms in recent days, so we are looking at 40p minimum......

also, the automated quote is bid for 500,000 offer 50,000 - draw your own conclusions, I have!

[utsushi] 16/10/2009 14:47

PC, I think you are about right, like MNR, not worth chasing, but interesting on a significant pull back.

[reggie2004] 16/10/2009 12:54

Gearing 31/03/2009 - neg. equity% 31/03/2008 - 194.08%
ROCE 31/03/2009 -56.76% 31/03/2008 - 13.32%

Number of Shares in Issue 122,500,000
Market Capitalisation £15.01m

Should work out at 12.5p approx

Regards Reg

[pc innit] 16/10/2009 12:11

I'll have a crack at this one!

Total Assets - £187m
Total Liabilities - £194.38
Net Liabilities - £7.38
Shares in issue - 122,388,060 (reversed engineered this figured as couldn't be ar$ed going back into the accounts for the correct number)
Therefore Net Liabilites = 6.03p/share

IF we had a 10% increase in commercial property prices from when the assets were last valued at £187m then:

New total assets - £205.7m
Total Liabilities - £194.38
Net Assets - £11.32m
Shares in issue - 122,388,060 [see above german shepherd engineering effort (Ruff Ruff)]
Therefore Net Asset Value = 9.02p/share

In my opinion we are now trading at a huge premium to the current NAV. In fact we are still trading a share with Net liabilities. OTE would need to see minimum increase in it property values of 3.95% from last valuation to have any NAV at all.

Opinions anyone? In the ball park??

Cheers,
PC

[bluesky1st] 16/10/2009 10:16

nivison

I think you are right that this could be a bid target, there will be a few bargain hunters around in the next few months.

As as soon as true NAV is known these type of companies they will be rerated and potentially too expensive for a take over.

Time will tell.

[cool hand kev] 16/10/2009 10:16

so the accounts are misleading then?

[nivison] 16/10/2009 09:29

Laxey Partners have already swooped on the other Rugby Estates portfolio, their REIT. I would imagine they have run their ruler over this one as well. It's a different animal, no central London offices in this one. Maybe they have dismissed it as not of interest, on the other hand maybe not. Personally I think we will have to wait for concrete signs of recovery in the real economy for this one to start to climb again. I was in at 3.88 and its a medium term hold for me.

[bluesky1st] 16/10/2009 09:16

Big olde shake !

The buyer is still out there imo and taking a break, so mm's are trying different tactics. Successfully so far !

[paragon157] 16/10/2009 08:59

Hmm .. Some Directors Buying would be nice !

[quraishim] 16/10/2009 06:38

thanks ydderF u make sense.....28p, yes easily can be as someone is buying big time.. thats why it held the price all along the day...good luck.

[ydderf] 16/10/2009 05:50

if you want to know what happens next, look at the last spike, there is a big seller (lookup how the last spike collapsed)

However

Penny punters, cfd scalpers and hysterics here will not have been responsible for the bulk of the buys (look at volume last spike), so there msut be a serious accumulator out there, we should know very soon....

I reckon NAV after sales in the auction room at this weeks prices would be around 28p, for all prop cos the real prices of their assets always takes about 6 months to be reflected in the accounts which is why cheap bids have been succeeding - see TAP and DLD for example

[ayesha4] 16/10/2009 00:06

Let me make it clearer for a ficko like you quraishim.

If they sold ALL their properties they would STILL OWE their lenders £7.38m.

These might go to 20p later today but stop deluding/conning yourself and others of the NAV.

[mreasygoing] 16/10/2009 00:05

The NAV was negative the last time I checked. This is already trading well above NAV. The shares have risen on the fact the company has a future and the NAV will rise. I am in from 7p and 8p. I bought understanding that the NAV was negative at the time of purchase, but am patient as I realise that if re-financing took place it would be a savvy investment.

I have to agree with Ayesha on this one, you should be sacked quraishim. Your reading is wrong. your basing your figures on 2008 when prices were higher.

You are misleading people and I have to say that is either through ignorance or by being deliberate. Either way it is out of order.

[quraishim] 15/10/2009 23:55

You will not know the difference between bananas and apple...u wished apple were bananas too.......lol!

Have a good night sweet dreams of OTE at 20p tomorrow.

Hence I came out with 41p taking account prices have fallen 20% since the last two years.

[quraishim] 15/10/2009 23:41

ayesha.....we are not talking about net liability...we are talking about assets, i mean the net assets are worth 69p against liabilty of 6p makes the assets are 11 times the net liability.. u are talking who has a company i have been working with auditors for the last 15 years......so if you dont agree dont come with your gutter tartish comments.

Net (Liability)/Asset Value per Ordinary (6.03)p 69.32p |
| Share - basic | | | |
+---------------------------------------------+----------+-----------------+-----------------+
| Net (Liability)/Asset Value per Ordinary (6.03)p | 69.32p |
| Share -diluted
+---------------------------------------------+----------+-----------------+------
Net liability is in bracket which is (6.03p) net asset value is 69.32p value per ordinary share basic and diluted.

I know to read accounts as much as you know how to cook...lol!!


Its just sour grapes because you have sold your holding at 10p...u just deserve that few penny profit.......now see OTE rising to 20p and probably 40p for a successful takeover.
41p was based on taking 20% downturn of property market in the last 2 years making it NAV at 41p...........so the offer should be around 40p for a predator

[ayesha4] 15/10/2009 23:24

quarishim

Learn to read a balance sheet. They currently have a NET liability not NAV.

Don't know where you get 41p from - it just is not there.

However,

The shares will probably keep goinh higher but I see no higher than 20p in the short or medium term. Long term they may go higher as property values rise.

[cool hand kev] 15/10/2009 22:25

thx guys 20p would be nice

[tts] 15/10/2009 21:46

Also don't forget;

1. It will be a hot company to be taken over!

2. Already there has been stake bulding (up to 29%)

3. In the paper at the weekend commercial property companies are going to be the flavour of the month for takeovers.

4. OTE are also going to buy back their own shares (agreed at the AGM)

All this, plus the other recent information, will send the share price north.

Good luck